https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/dutch-ttf-natural-gas-usd-mmbtu-icis-heren-front-month.html
The Dutch TTF Natural Gas future price jumped 10x to over €300/MWh at its peak in 2022.
Right now, it’s only about doubled.
Fundamental differences:
1/ Europe’s direct exposure to Qatar is much smaller than its 2022 exposure to Russian pipeline gas.
Qatar accounted for about 4% of EU gas supply, and roughly 8% of Europe’s LNG, while the U.S. supplied 25.4% of EU gas supply and is Europe’s top LNG supplier.
In 2021, Russia was the primary energy supplier for the European Union (EU), providing approximately 45% of its total gas imports.
In 2022, Russia gas was a direct loss. Now is more indirect.
2/ Market “believes” shock is temporary.
In Europe in 2022, Russian pipeline gas to the EU fell from about 140 bcm in 2021 to around 60 bcm in 2022, and comparing 2023 vs 2021 Russian pipeline deliveries to Europe fell by almost 120 bcm.
While Qatar’s supply of 112 bcm of LNG transited Hormuz in 2025, pricing is still pointing to some normalization over the next 6–12 months rather than a permanent loss.