Starbucks posted a stellar earnings result today, with net revenue at record level of $6.3bn, beating expectations in many aspects.
While a single beat doesn’t indicate a new stage of growth, in the long run there are three issues I think matter the most and should be watched closely.
1 | Problem: Frappuccino’s decline
It was an problem Starbucks facing over the years. People are leaning towards healthier products (at least a very obvious trend in Cali), which usually means less sugar and less calories. That’s a problem for Starbucks’ Frappuccino, as explicitly mentioned in CEO’s presentation in June.
How did/will Starbucks address this? Product Mix & Innovation
Strategy a) Big push for healthier product lines – Nitro Cold Brew & Refresher series etc.
– Nitro Cold Brew “is expected to be available in nearly 1,500 stores in 26 markets by the end of 2017″ (SBUX Jul. 2017 Press Release) -> “[Starbucks is] accelerating this platform to more than 2,800 stores by the close of fiscal year 2018, up to more than 6,000 stores by year-end fiscal year 2019″ (SBUX Q3 Earnings Call Transcript). A 4x availability expansion for cold brew in 3 years.
– Several new products in the Refresher category were introduced, e.g. “Dragonfruit” introduced Jun. 2018, “Pink Drink” introduced last year, etc.
Strategy b) Instagramable & limited edition within the Frappuccino category
– Unicorn Frappuccino (Apr. 19-23, 2017), Zombie Frappuccino (Oct. 26-31, 2017), Christmas Tree Frappuccino (Dec. 7 – 11, 2017), Crystal Ball Frappuccino (Mar. 22-26, 2018), Witch’s Brew Frappuccino (starting Oct. 25 for a limited time while supplies last)… among many others.
– Plus, Starbucks’ new Frappucino recipe has fewer calories and less sugar, part of its efforts to reduce sugar by 25% by 2020.
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2 | Opportunity – Digital Interactions
Starbucks Rewards could serve a similar role as Amazon Prime. In past last 3 month, loyalty program accounts for 14% of all transactions and US loyalty members contributed 40% of US sales. That’s what happened in the Amazon case, where its Prime members out-spend non-members significantly.
Digital relationship makes it easier to incentivize purchases, market new products/initiatives, bring in more collaborations (e.g. Spotify, Pokémon GO), expand membership offerings and more.
Starbuck’s push for afternoon consumptions is also facilitated by the digitalized promotions.
The room to grow digital relationships is still large – currently 15.3 million global active members, only representing ~22% of its 70 million global customers base. “Additionally, drive-thru, out-the-window and Mobile Order and Pay combined grew to more than 50% of the way customers are ordering, up more than 10 percentage points in just two years” according to COO.
3 | Opportunity – China Growth
It’s more debatable on Starbucks’ China future. Just want to highlight a few sure things.
Starbucks took full ownership in China East & opened flagship Roastery in Shanghai in 2017 – definitely the right moves here.
China’s coffee consumption will explode, even considering major cities alone. Younger generations will consume more coffee and they will represent an increasing proportion of the overall urban population.
Coffee even has a role to play in China’s GDP growth by boosting workers’ average productivity and the “culture” of working overtime.
Herding effect is stronger in China and “Instagramable & Limited” strategy may provide better outcomes if properly implemented.
Other things worth noticing – Starbucks’ food, packaged goods with Nestlé, next-generation store design, coffee supplies, SKU outside the Starbucks’ core products, etc…