Two biggest component would be electric vehicles and AI.
EV: BYD is <$100bn; BYD delivered higher profits than Tesla; BYD also has energy storage business
AI Models (FSD): OpenAI is <$100bn; latest valuation appeared to be $86bn
AI Chips: AMD is ~$160bn. Tesla should be years behind in terms of external revenue profits (as a business) etc. Let’s just use $160bn, as Tesla has some other business.
Then it sums up to be $360bn = $100bn + $100bn + $160bn
Last time I checked (before earnings), it’s more than doubling that number…
Robots? Boston Dynamics was $1.1bn back in Dec 2020.
Charging? ChargePoint ($CHPT) is ~$1bn market cap.
If someone wants to add ride-hailing services I mean Lyft is <$5bn, not significant.
Even additionally add Enphase and First Solar, which were ~$13bn and $16bn, still not big enough to move the needle.
Insurance could be big. However, if it’s not good enough/taking over now, why it should be in the future? It shouldn’t be a futuristic thing; auto insurance has a history of over 100 years.
$400bn or lower sounds about right.