Previously, since 2024 policy shift (“Sep 24”), China’s housing market has stabilized for 6 month (Oct 2024 to Mar 2025).
However, since Apr 2025, that trend has reversed. Monthly new residential sales saw accelerated decline again.
Oct 2025 and Nov 2025 implied monthly new residential sales is down 26% and 28% yoy, vs -1% in the first quarter of 2025.
Several obvious reasons
- deteriorating macro / increasing uncertainty after US tariff
- no meaningful policy supply
- high base in 4q24