US
10yr treasury: 4.1%
Fed funds rate: 3.50%-3.75%
CPI (Nov): 2.7%
The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Real interest rate: 1.4% long term, ~1% short term
China
10yr treasury: 1.8%
7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: 1.4%
CPI (Nov): 0.7%
But Nov MoM CPI is -0.1%.
Real interest rate: 1.1% long term, ~0.7% short term
However, China CPI was just 0.2% in Oct and mostly flat or negative yoy before Oct 2025.
Within that, 贵金属饰品 probably contributed 0.3% or more, as gold and silver prices are up significantly.
Thus, China real interest rate is probably around 1.5% or more or long term and 1.1% for short term, which would be similar to the US right now.