Real interest rate US vs China

US

10yr treasury: 4.1%

Fed funds rate: 3.50%-3.75%

CPI (Nov): 2.7%

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.

Real interest rate: 1.4% long term, ~1% short term

China

10yr treasury: 1.8%

7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: 1.4%

CPI (Nov): 0.7%

But Nov MoM CPI is -0.1%.

Real interest rate: 1.1% long term, ~0.7% short term

However, China CPI was just 0.2% in Oct and mostly flat or negative yoy before Oct 2025.

Within that, 贵金属饰品 probably contributed 0.3% or more, as gold and silver prices are up significantly.

Thus, China real interest rate is probably around 1.5% or more or long term and 1.1% for short term, which would be similar to the US right now.