Category: personal_noteS

BRICS leaders don’t retire

Lula won reelection, securing his fourth presidential term with 51.79% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro.

What about other leaders

Current leader Years in top leadership* Expected or mandatory exit
Putin 🇷🇺 27 Eligible to serve until 2036
Xi 🇨🇳 14 No formal term limit
Modi 🇮🇳 12 No term limit; next election due 2029
el-Sisi 🇪🇬 12 Current constitutional endpoint 2030
Lula 🇧🇷 12 cumulative Current term ends 2026
Mohammed bin Salman 🇸🇦 9 as Crown Prince No fixed retirement
Ramaphosa 🇿🇦 9 Presidential limit applies
Abiy Ahmed 🇪🇹 9 No PM term limit
Mohamed bin Zayed 🇦🇪 4 as president Unlimited reelection
Pezeshkian 🇮🇷 2 Presidential term limits apply
Prabowo 🇮🇩 2 Maximum two presidential ter

ms

*Putin’s figure includes time as prime ministe; Mohammed bin Salman’s with becoming Crown Prince.

Everyone wants liquidity

Anthropic is about to go IPO in November; its 3q26 revenue is ~$16.8bn, up 45% qoq. With target valuation rumored around $1.5-2 trillion, it can raise $75 billion or more with 5% dilution.

SpaceX raised $75bn in its IPO in Jun.

Google raised more than $40bn in Jun, including $10bn from Berkshire, $15bn in equity (upsized to $18bn) and $15bn in convertible bonds (upsized to $16.75).  Google has another $40bn ATM equity offering that it hasn’t raised.

Meanwhile, Meta said it plans to raise up to $95 billion in equity.

OpenAI is closing in on a private funding round of up to $30 billion at a pre-money valuation of $1.25 trillion.

DeepSeek just raised approximately $15 billion (about 100 billion yuan) in its private funding round.

For 2026 through September, US public equity market raised $355.1bn.

To compare, US public equity market raised $300bn in 2000, or 3% of US GDP.

If add public and private equity raise, 2000 equity raise reaches 4% of GDP.

Currently, if 4q26 equity raise reaches $400bn, it will make 2026 private+public equity raise exceed 4% of US GDP.

So far, notable deals already push the number to over $1.1 trillion of 3.5% of US 2026 GDP.

Historically, 3% is not common; 4% or near 4% can be dangerous.

 

Where are China bulls?

David Tepper was a prominent China bull in 2024.

What happened afterwards? Seem that he has been selling continuously and has mostly exited. His recent add in Baidu is still smaller than his other China sales.

 

Ray Dalio / Bridgewater similar, even faster exit.

Position 4Q24 shares 1Q25 shares 2Q25 Latest 2Q26
BABA 0.255m 5.660m 0 0
PDD 1.247m 1.743m 0 0
BIDU ~0.197m 2.076m 0 0
JD 0 2.787m 0 0
FXI 1.082m 0.691m 0 0
KWEB no meaningful disclosed position — — —

Source: ChatGPT

Li Lu / Himalaya is more of a long term investor. He recently added PDD and TME.

 

HK record financing

Alibaba now tops the list with 80bn HKD financing.

排名 公司 / 时间 规模 关键 Terms HKEX 官方公告
1 阿里巴巴 9988 8/23交易，8/24公告 HK$80.0bn 710m新股；HK$112.70；较参考股价折价约3.6%；扩大后占股本3.57%；net约HK$79.7bn；预计8/26交割。 HKEX 配售条款公告
2 中际旭创 3308 7/30上市 HK$53.410bn IPO 54.5m股 × HK$980；net HK$52.891bn；另有8.175m股绿鞋，但该HK$53.41bn数字未计绿鞋。 HKEX 最终发售价及配发结果
3 宁德时代 3750 4/28 HK$39.190bn 配售 62.385m H股 × HK$628.20；较前收折价7.0%，较5日均价折价10.46%；扩大后稀释约1.36%。 HKEX 配售条款公告
4 智谱 2513 7/9 HK$31.411bn 最多 19.78m H股 × HK$1,588；较前收折价12.99%，较5日均价折价6.72%；扩大后约4.25%。 HKEX 配售条款公告
5 立讯精密 2475 7/9上市；8/5绿鞋 ≈HK$25.060bn 基础 383.473m股 × HK$63.28 = HK$24.266bn；8/5部分绿鞋 12.542m股 × HK$63.28 ≈ HK$0.794bn。 IPO最终结果 · 绿鞋公告
6 胜宏科技 2476 4/21上市；4/22绿鞋 ≈HK$23.135bn IPO最终95.85m股、HK$209.88，基础gross HK$20.117bn；随后全额绿鞋14.3775m股，同价发行。(HKEX News) IPO最终结果 · 全额绿鞋公告
7 美的集团 0300 5/6定价；5/7公告 HK$17.248bn 两档各HK$8.624bn、均zero coupon、100%发行。2027档：到期11 May 2027、转股价HK$96.82；2033档：到期13 May 2033、转股价HK$115.76，到期赎回114.95%。 HKEX 双档CB完整条款
8 MiniMax 0100 7/10 HK$16.041bn 配售：35.6m股 × HK$268 = HK$9.541bn；另发 HK$6.5bn zero-coupon CB，100%发行，约7/14/27到期，初始转股价HK$335，较前收premium 12.64%，到期赎回102.75%。 HKEX 配售＋CB完整条款
9 联想集团 0992 6/17交易；6/18公告 US$2.0bn zero coupon、100%发行、7年期，到期25 Jun 2033；初始转股价HK$36.70，较签约日收盘价premium约47.5%；net约US$1.979bn。 HKEX CB完整条款
10 MMG 1208 6/16 HK$6.268bn + US$0.8bn CB 配股 705.892m股 × HK$8.88；另发US$800m zero-coupon CB，发行价102%，所以CB gross cash为US$816m；21 Jun 2027到期；初始转股价HK$10.21。 HKEX 配售＋CB完整条款
11 牧原股份 2714 2/6上市；3/5绿鞋 ≈HK$12.099bn 基础 273.9514m股 × HK$39 = HK$10.684bn；3/5部分绿鞋 36.2717m股 × HK$39 ≈ HK$1.415bn。 IPO最终结果 · 绿鞋公告
12 紫金矿业 2899 1/29交易；1/30公告 US$1.5bn face / US$1.5375bn gross zero coupon；发行价102.5%；5 Feb 2031到期；初始转股价HK$63.30，较前收premium 37.19%、5日均价premium 45.92%。(HKEX News) HKEX CB完整条款
13 中国宏桥 1378 4/28 RMB10.2bn USD-settled zero coupon CB；100%发行；3 May 2027到期；初始转股价HK$43.90。 HKEX CB完整条款
14 东鹏饮料 9980 2/3上市；2/28绿鞋 ≈HK$11.099bn 基础 40.8899m股 × HK$248 = HK$10.141bn；部分绿鞋 3.8658m股 × HK$248 ≈ HK$0.959bn。 IPO最终结果 · 绿鞋公告
15 华泰证券 6886 2/3 HK$10.0bn zero coupon、100%发行；8 Feb 2027到期；初始转股价HK$19.70，较前收premium 6.78%，较5日均价premium 5.09%；net HK$9.925bn。 HKEX CB完整条款
16 洛阳钼业 / CMOC 3993 1/19交易；1/20公告 US$1.2bn zero coupon、100%发行；24 Jan 2027到期；初始转股价HK$28.03，较前收premium 28.70%，较5日均价premium 26.17%。 HKEX CB完整条款

Source: ChatGPT

Bond yield becomes a topic? looks fine for Europe

Benchmark 10-year yield ranges:

Period Germany Italy Spain Background
Late 1970s–1980s 6–11% 10–14% 11–14% High inflation and nominal growth
Early 1990s peak ~9% 14.2% 14.0% Currency/ERM crisis
2000–07 3–5% 3.5–5.5% 3.5–5.5% Euro convergence
2011–12 crisis peak ~2% 7.3% ~7.6% Euro break-up/default risk
2020–21 low −0.8% 0.45% Around 0% ECB QE and pandemic policy
August 2026 3.26% 4.08% 3.72% Fiscal expansion, inflation and supply

How did European stocks perform?

 

Year STOXX Europe 600 price return Total return Broad environment
1988 +22.2% +25.4% Growth and yields rising
1989 +24.5% +28.0% Reunification optimism
1990 −17.8% −15.3% Bund yields/rates peak; recession fears
1991 +12.5% +15.8% Partial recovery
1992 +1.6% +5.8% ERM currency crisis
1993 +35.9% +40.7% Rate cuts and collapsing yields

 

Index 2011 2012
STOXX Europe 600 price −11.3% +14.4%
STOXX Europe 600 total return −8.6% +18.2%
Germany DAX −14.7% +29.1%
Italy −25.2% +7.8%
Spain IBEX −13.1% −4.7%

Note that 2011-12 is different – one key evidence is German yield yield was falling, while now it’s rising in 2026. Note that 2012 stock increased due to euro-breakup crisis being contained.

Germany’s 10-year yield has increased from about 2.86% at end-2025 to 3.26%, or roughly +40 bp YTD.

Year-end Germany Italy Spain STOXX 600 price return
2008 3.05% 4.47% 3.86% −45.6%
2009 3.14% 4.01% 3.80% +28.0%
2010 2.91% 4.60% 5.37% +8.6%
2011 1.93% 6.81% 5.50% −11.3%
Jul-12 1.24% 6.00% 6.80% Crisis peak
2012 year-end 1.30% 4.54% 5.34% +14.4%

 

Thoughts from people more than 75 year ago

Where is our thought leader these days?

Moreover, if we move in the direction of making machines which learn and whose behavior is modified by experience, we must face the fact that every degree of independence we give the machine is a degree of possible defiance of our wishes. The genie in the bottle will not willingly go back in the bottle, nor have we any reason to expect them to be well disposed to us.

Wiener_Norbert_The_Machine_Age_v3_1949

Meanwhile,

I think affluent middle class is key to a lot of things, especially for the US.

The rise of cheap Chinese open-weight models is a shock, if not an “attack”.

“Middle class” that is merely existing without a lot of options in life is not affluent middle class. Free will doesn’t prevail in this case.

About AMD

1/ OpenAI warrants and target price

OpenAI’s AMD warrant (max 160 million AMD shares) agreement says the first tranche follows delivery of the first 1 GW and full vesting requires purchases reaching 6 GW. AMD also disclosed that the stock-price targets rise to $600 for the final tranche.

AMD last year talked about $20 non-gaap EPS within the next three to five years. And now it says it will be significantly above $20.

Using the Nov 2025 stated goal of $20, OpenAI’s last tranche of $600 is 30x, and given it maybe $30 non-gaap eps, it’s just 20x.

2/ Lisa Su doesn’t own much?

Lisa Su currently owns approximately 3.61 million AMD shares outright, equal to about 0.22% of AMD.

AMD’s March 2026 proxy disclosed that Su also held 413,529 options exercisable within 60 days. Adding those to her currently reported actual shares gives approximately 4 milion beneficially owned shares or approximately 0.247% of AMD.

However, she came as CEO. She is not the founder.