China, 2020-2025
- Real interest rate is mostly in 1-2% post-2020, using 7-day repo repurchase rate.
- Although overnight rate could be 0.3% lower, real interest rate is still in positive territory.
- in mid-2022, real interest rate is below 0 due to short-term CPI strength when shanghai is out of lockdown.
US, post dot-com bubble
Real interest rate is below 0%, like -1%.
Fed funds rate
| December 2001 | 1.75% | 11 rate cuts in a single year to fight the recession. |
| November 2002 | 1.25% | Further easing as the recovery remained “jobless.” |
| June 2003 | 1.00% | The Bottom. The lowest rate in 45 years at that time. |
CPI
|
2001
|
177.1
|
2.8%
|
|
2002
|
179.9
|
1.6%
|
|
2003
|
184.0
|
2.3%
|
US, post GFC
Real interest rate is below 0%, frequently below -1%, near -4% in Sep 2011.
Fed fund rate: 0% until Dec 2015, plus QE to keep long term rates low
CPI
|
2009
|
214.5
|
-0.4%
|
|
2010
|
218.1
|
1.6%
|
|
2011
|
224.9
|
3.2%
|
|
2012
|
229.6
|
2.1%
|
|
2013
|
233.0
|
1.5%
|
|
2014
|
236.7
|
1.6%
|
|
2015
|
237.0
|
0.1%
|