There are many theories out there and one of them is to compare with the 2021-2022 bitcoin crash.
From Nov 2021 to Jan 2022, bitcoin price crashed ~50%
- $68,789.63 (November 10, 2021)
- $32,917.17 (January 24, 2022)
From Apr 2022 to Jun 2022, bitcoin price crashed ~63%
- $47,313.48 (April 3, 2022)
- $17,708.62 (June 18, 2022)
Things are not the same this time – back then Fed was entering a rate hike cycle, Russia-Ukraine war/conflict broke out, and LUNA crashed.
Let’s say this time things are less severe. Fed is not going to raise interest rate anytime soon, although it may shrink balance sheet, plus major wars may be ending.
From Oct 2025 to Nov 2025, bitcoin price crashed ~33%
- $126,272.76 (October 6, 2025)
- $84,209.42 (November 22, 2025)
Let’s call the scaling ~2/3 vs 2021-22.
Then the second crash should be down ~42%.
In Jan 2026, bitcoin price was around $97,860.
To crash 42%, it would be ~$56,759.
We saw recent low at $60,074 on Feb 6, which is ~5% from our calculation above.
See previous posts on bitcoin