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Beyond Cars – Bike & Scooter Sharing in Age of Ride-Hailing

共享自行车已经进入市场很多年，模式上在近年有多方面突破；另一方面，以 Birds 为首的美国 scooter 的热潮从 2017 年开始迅速蔓延，之前的共享自行车公司也找到了美国新的突破口，毕竟相比于中国自行车的普及和流行，美国自行车一直处于出行需求的角落（有安全监管、道路等因素）。

大多数共享自行车和共享 scooter 诞生之初，就内涵了与 uber/lyft 相近的模式和基因，又同时在解决一个大问题的不同局部。它们早晚会相遇是公认的事实。

各自 2019 年 IPO 计划的临近，出于公司定位和战略说明的角度，以及财务角度，uber 和 lyft 的出手之快出乎一些意料（相比于市场的成熟度和发展时间），却也极其合理。这篇 blog 主要关于 lyft 的收购。

2018 年 4 月，uber 率先宣布了第一笔交易，$100 – 200 mn 收购 JUMP Bike。

JUMP Bike | Source: uber.com/ride/uber-bike/

2018 年 6 月，有报道 Lyft 在寻求 $250 mn 收购 Motivate（旗下拥有纽约的 Citi Bike 和加州的 Ford GoBike 等）；uber 也尝试参与，竞价收购，最后 7 月初由 Lyft 拿下。
– Motivate 2017 rev. $100 mn, ~ half coming from sponsorship
– Motivate has ~30k bikes, operating in 8 US cities – Citi Bike (New York), Ford GoBike (San Francisco Bay area), Divvy (Chicago), Blue Bikes (Boston metro area), Capital Bikeshare (Washington, D.C. metro area), BIKETOWN (Portland metro area), CoGo (Columbus, Ohio), and Nice Ride (Minneapolis)
– 纽约的 Citi Bike 用户数约 15 万；For GoBike 17 年6 月与 Ford 达成合作正式 launch，截至 18 年 1 月用户数近 1 万
– Motivate has an advantage of exclusive deal terms with cities including NYC, SF, among others
– Motivate’s bikes are dock-based, which was an old model but fit with cities like NYC
– Unionized workers (~600) are a major issue, which was not included in the acquisition

收购后，Lyft 将投入 $100 mn 发展 Citi Bike，五年内自行车数量增加两倍将达近 4 万。

Citi Bike | Source: citibikenyc.com
Citi Bike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: citibikenyc.com/pricing

在湾区，尽管开始时 Motivate 有 exclusive 合同，但由于纽约和 SF 有一个区别在于 SF 很多上下坡，在曼哈顿适用的自行车在 SF 的使用场景大幅缩减，电动助力自行车 (e-bike) 的需求凸显。这给了其它 bike-sharing 公司一个绝佳的机会，以 e-bike 的形式抢进 SF 市场，绕开 Motivate 的排他性条款，比如 Social Bicycles。随后 SF 与 Motivate 达成和解，基本算允许了其它电动自行车的试验，尽管有数量限制。

Ford GoBike 在今年 1 月展示了 e-bike 之后，于 4 月在 SF 正式 launch 了电动自行车。

Ford GoBike @ SAP Center, San Jose | Source: fordgobike instagram
Ford GoBike Plus with pedal assist (电动助力)，服务 SF 市场，18 年 4 月 正式 launch，首批 250 辆 | Source: fordgobike.com/plus
Ford GoBike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: fordgobike.com/pricing

18 年 1 月，SF 的第一个无桩 bike-sharing permit， 250 辆，给了 JUMP (formerly Social Bicycle，见上文)，JUMP 自行车是全电动 (和 scooter，也是电动)。

这也是 uber CEO 后来解释 JUMP 收购时一直强调的每个城市/地区的不同，需要 city-by-city 地考虑。uber 选择从 SF 开始发力。

Lyft 选择了更高的起点。Motivate 确实是体量更大、更成熟的 bike-sharing 公司。加之 e-bike 的额外成本，以及 permit 的数量显示，仅依靠 JUMP 或许会让 uber 在这个局部战场输给 Lyft。

2017 total bike-sharing trips taken in millions | Source: nacto.org

加之 scooter 的起飞（全部为电动），尤其在加州主要城市的流行，不出意外，uber 在寻求另一起收购，一起这个领域决定性的收购，Uber said to be negotiating a multibillion-dollar takeover of scooter-sharing startup。

Consolidation 不仅没有缺席，而且会来得更快。

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Future of Interactive VR?

A video of a very interesting experience that involves VR settings and an live actor (motion captured and built in VR simultaneously)!

This might be the new start of VR enthusiasm.  With 5G launching as soon as 19H1, its use in VR should not be far away. By that time, VR theater should be feasible and even in a interactive way (for front rows maybe); interactive VR party will come to reality (think of VR halloween party and maybe people don’t even need to actually wear costumes). The consumer level applications may focus on entertainment, but enterprise/government uses will also play an important part, perhaps in a way that most people won’t know.

If we go further.. and make robots instead of live human actors, things will be wild. When a connection is built, tactile internet + VR = do anything with anybody anywhere.

California Republic And (Currently) A Democratic State

Recently I saw the state flag a few times with the bear and the name of “California Republic”. While the name may have new meanings now, it also represents its history.

Originally part of Mexico, the 1846 revolt declared independence of California Republic with its capital in Sonoma. Only lasted for 25 days, the republic later became part of the United States.

Despite the republic origin, California has been a strong democratic state since 1992.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Source: Los Angeles Times

It appears to me tho, that the “republic” or “democratic” name itself won’t convey much meaning going forward. Sure a party will start with a name that is closely related a specific opinion. After decades or hundreds of years, most of the founding ideas will fade away; it might be okay to just call them “party A” and “party B”.

Ultimately, most ordinary voters only care about if their feel good or not. And most of that feeling is correlated with economic status. So the flipping of the economy will change the control between parties.

California has been booming for years with the help from semiconductors, PCs, internet, etc. As long as tech industry remains strong, so does California and it will continue be won by the current party.

Climate Change’s Impact on Deserts

There are two aspects of the impact – 1) in terms of deserts itself including creatures that originally live deserts 2) in terms of deserts’ expansion to external environments

Within Deserts

Although desert species are thought to be live in the hottest and driest places around the world, they can only thrive under limited conditions. It takes thousands and millions of years for creatures to adapt to new environments, but climate change is happening dramatically within 100-200 years.

According to a study on sensitivity to climate change for two reptiles, a moderate climate change of +2 °C and -50 mm precipitation, desert tortoises’ suitable habitat was reduced by nearly 88% in the Sonoran Desert and nearly 66% in the Mojave Desert regions.

Desert Tortoise | Source: Wikipedia

The distinctive Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) in Joshua Tree National Park could lose up to 90 percent of its distribution if we increase temperature by +3 °C.

Joshua Tree | Source: NPS/Larry McAfee

What is more, as creatures need to move to cooler and higher-elevations areas, another problem arises – mismatch and imbalance. Joshua trees are hard to move with in 10 years, where animals are more free to find new inhabitants. Even within critters, movement speeds are different, e.g. tortoises are slow-moving while side-blotched lizards are faster. But ecosystem is constituting of species depending on each other. The difference in moving speeds alone will cause lots of chaos.

Outside the Original Deserts

Desertification has been talked up for years. In a 2018 study, Sahara Desert has expanded 10% since 1920. And the newest desert on earth is Aralkum Desert, which appeared since 1960 on the seabed once occupied by the Aral Sea.

Animated map of the shrinking of the Aral Sea, and growing Aralkum | Source: Wikipedia

As deserts are mostly measured by rainfall, it would be more interesting to look at land degradation. The World Atlas of Desertification claimed that “Over 75% of the Earth’s land area is already degraded, and over 90% could become degraded by 2050; Globally, a total area half of the size of the European Union (4.18 million km²) is degraded annually, with Africa and Asia being the most affected.” In a 1991 study, 35% of the world’s land surface is currently at risk and more than 20 million hectares are reduced annually to near or complete uselessness.

The measures are different, but the trend is certain.

AWS 的半壁江山

11/28，Amazon Web Services CEO Andy Jassy 在 re:Invent 大会上引用了 Gartner 的数据，说 AWS 全球市场份额超过一半为 51.8%

诚然，AWS 的神话和统治地位毋庸置疑。Amazon 从 2015 年开始将 AWS 作为独立的 segment 汇报财务数据。通过 2014 年的增长率可以倒推出 2013 年以来每个季度的 AWS 收入。

不过，Gartner 那份今年 8 月的报告局限于 2017 年的数据。其它各家如 Azure 和 Alibaba Cloud 的增长率有目共睹。CY18Q3，Azure 增长放缓至 76%，依旧接近 AWS 最快的时候 (2015 Q2, 81%)。

微软一直没有把 Azure 的收入单独列出，仅作为 Intelligent Cloud Division 的一部分汇报。这个 division 包括了 Windows Server, Azure 和其它企业服务。今年第二季度，整个 division 的收入首次超过 AWS。

虽然这样不算直接的 apple-to-apple 比较，但侧面正好提醒我们微软在企业市场的底蕴，也是 Azure 超高速增长和未来发展潜力的保障。相比之下，AWS 于 Amazon 其它业务的协同效应一般，远不比微软有其它企业服务以及 office 365、Github 等。

Amazon 要保住市场份额，还有很多工作要做。

再来做一个对于 Azure 收入的直接估算：

  • 第三季度 Intelligent Cloud Division 整体增长 24% 至 8.6 billion
  • 假设除 Azure 外这个 division 其它收入增长 10%，则 Azure% * 76% + (1 – Azure%) * 10% = 24%
  • Azure% = 21%，Azure 第三季度收入约 1.8 billion，大约在 AWS 2015 年 Q2 – Q3 水平
  • 考虑到其它业务增长可能没有 10%，实际 Azure 数字可能更大