Category: lenS & thoughtS

Half of the 2018 Top 10 Movies in US Are Made by Disney…

2018 Top 10 movies in US

Here is the list by gross sales in US, according to boxofficemojo.com

Rank Movie Title (click to view) Studio Total Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Open Close
1 Black Panther BV $700,059,566 4,084 $202,003,951 4,020 2/16 8/9
2 Avengers: Infinity War BV $678,815,482 4,474 $257,698,183 4,474 4/27 9/13
3 Incredibles 2 BV $608,581,744 4,410 $182,687,905 4,410 6/15 12/13
4 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $416,769,345 4,485 $148,024,610 4,475 6/22 10/4
5 Deadpool 2 Fox $318,491,426 4,349 $125,507,153 4,349 5/18 10/18
6 Aquaman WB $270,596,781 4,184 $67,873,522 4,125 12/21 –
7 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch (2018) Uni. $269,848,350 4,141 $67,572,855 4,141 11/9 –
8 Mission: Impossible – Fallout Par. $220,159,104 4,395 $61,236,534 4,386 7/27 10/18
9 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $216,648,740 4,206 $75,812,205 4,206 7/6 11/1
10 Solo: A Star Wars Story BV $213,767,512 4,381 $84,420,489 4,381 5/25 9/20

* BV (Buena Vista) was the brand name which was historically often used for divisions and subsidiaries of The Walt Disney Company, whose primary studios, the Walt Disney Studios, are located on Buena Vista Street in Burbank, California

Top 3 are all from Disney, as are #9 & #10, making Disney occupy half of the Top 10 seats of best-selling movies in US.

And according to ComScore, 2018’s movie business hit all-time benchmarks of $11.9 billion in North America and $41.7 billion globally, with Disney taking in nearly a fifth of that figure. (Variety)

Among Disney’s domestic box office of $3.09 billion, its top 3 got ~$1.99 billion (64.32%), top 5 got ~$2.42 billion (78.25%).

Besides, Disney’s movies in Top 10 all have rating of 7.0 or above, averaging at ~7.56 on IMDb (beating the Top 10 average of 7.35)

2018 US Top 3 Movies | Source: IMDb

Overall…

Total US movie sales is barely growing. The figures below are not inflation-adjusted.

But the number of movie productions is increasing, partially due to a lack of funding after financial crisis (bottomed in 2009 with 521 movies that year).

Yearly US Box Office 2008-2018 | Source: boxofficemojo.com

As streaming is disrupting the market, increasing the number of production seemed to be a way to make up for the total revenue?

Then expenses are up and industry margin is low. It is a sure thing that movies are hard to survive alone.

Then no wonder the consolidation kicked in.

Disney bought Marvel for $4 billion in late 2009, bought Lucasfilm for $4 billion in late 2012. Before the financial crisis, Disney also got Pixar in a $7.4 billion in stock.

With the completion of $71 billion acquisition of Fox, Disney will add X-Men and Avatar to its list of movie series.

Warner Bros. will be under a new umbrella – AT&T’s, together with HBO and Turner.

Universal has been under Comcast since 2011.

Paramount is under Viacom and has teamed up with Netflix.

Movie is not a studio business anymore.

Tesla Model 3 Sales in 2018 Q4 – Not so Exciting

Model 3 has Little QoQ Growth

Tesla had very impressive numbers in Q3, when Model 3 delivery (55,840) was almost tripled from Q2 (18,440).

While no one is expecting another jump, the Q4 numbers are kinda lackluster, especially when adding Model 3 delivery and in transit numbers.

Tesla shares fall 9% on Wednesday when those numbers were reported.

$2,000 Price Cut and Phase-out of Tax Credit

Tesla also announced a price cut of $2,000 for Model S, Model X and Model 3 in the US. The move will partially offset the phase-out of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV.

[Phase-out will start in the second calendar quarter when the manufacturer has 200,000 plug-in registered in US. The credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.]

Source: InsideEVs

According to InsideEVs’ estimate, Tesla hit the 200,000 first in the second half of 2018, while General Motors was second with a breakout month of sales for the Bolt and Volt in November 2018.

The next four manufacturer in EV are Nissan (126,875), Ford (111,715), Toyota (93,011), BMW (79,679).

A combination of flat delivery + in transit Model 3, and a price reduction, warned people about the actual demand for Model 3.

Good news are: 1) people may just be waiting for the basic Model 3, aka $35,000 version that Elon touted but analysts said money-losing for Tesla; 2) Tesla is still way ahead in the EV market

2018 Monthly Sales Chart

Canada Housing Problems

Talks around Canada’s housing market have been surging – about its booming prices and about its looming risks.

The price side – directly shown by its pricing index from Statistics Canada – plotted below from Jan. 2006 – Oct. 2018.

Canada Housing Price Index | Source: Author, Statistics Canada

Toronto’ prices are the most wild in among Canada’s housing markets – nearly doubled in 39 month from Jan. 2014 to Apr. 2017.

Toronto home prices 2014 – 2017 | Source: Financial Post

The price itself is not actually something to worry about. But as FT argued, “House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.” Similarly on Huffpost, “Toronto’s house price index doubled between 2011 and 2017, even as household incomes grew by single percentage points.”

And let’s take a look at the housing debt level – the risky side.

Bank of Canada said the two trillion dollars of debt is around 170% of disposable income.

I double checked with OEDC data here.

Here is a historical comparison –

and housing debt versus GDP – just passed 100% for 2017 Q2.

The regulator took actions to cool down the market.

The short-sellers/investors took theirs too.

Home Capital is at the center, Canada’s largest provider of home loans to the newly arrived and self-employed.

Home Capital Stock Price (C$) | Source: Bloomberg

In Jun. 2017, Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle Berkshire committed to acquire a 38.39% stake as part of a rescue package (C$2.4 billion, including C$400 million equity and C$2 billion credit line with 9% interest rate). The first tranche of equity investment acquired a 19.99% ownership.

However as the second tranche of equity investment wan’t approved, now in Dec. 2018, the updates came as Buffett would sell most of its stake and reduce ownership level to less than 10%.

Home Capital is under control and stabilized now.

A single crisis is easier to solve than a systematic problem between housing prices and local income.

 

Does US have 3% Checking Account?

Robinhood recently prepared to launch its stunning checking & saving offering for cash management with a 3% rate.

That is an astonishing number compared with regular checking accounts (and saving accounts). Industry average is 0.08 percent yield on U.S. checking accounts and the 0.1 percent average on savings accounts (find more about rates here on bankrate.com).

Comparison provided by Robinhood | Source: checking.robinhood.com cached by Google

However, the comparison didn’t last long… as Robinhood pulled back and slowed down it official launch. The center question is that “accounts look like bank accounts, (but) they aren’t.”  Below is the description at the bottom of the website.

Robinhood Financial LLC and Robinhood Crypto, LLC are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc. Equities and options are offered to self-directed customers by Robinhood Financial. Robinhood Financial is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which protects securities customers of its members up to $500,000 (including $250,000 for claims for cash). Explanatory brochure available upon request or at www.sipc.org. Cryptocurrency trading is offered through an account with Robinhood Crypto. Robinhood Crypto is not a member of FINRA or SIPC. Cryptocurrencies are not stocks and your cryptocurrency investments are not protected by either FDIC or SIPC insurance

It is not FDIC protected and it is reported that – “the head of the Securities Investor Protection Corp. (SIPC) told CNBC on Friday that the start-up didn’t contact his office ahead of the product launch, and to his knowledge Robinhood had not contacted the SEC, either.”

While regulation is an issue, another question is – whether 3% reasonable / doable?

Historical CD Interest Rates – 1984-2016 | Source: bankrate.com

US has been through years of low-interest environment; people are not familiar with 10% or 5% interest rate back then. But after Fed’s meeting this week, it is highly likely that there is another 25bp raise, pushing fed funds rate into a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent.

Here is a brief history of four increases this year (updated in Jan 2019)

Date Increase Decrease Level (%)
December 20 25 0 2.25-2.50
September 27 25 0 2.00-2.25
June 14 25 0 1.75-2.00
March 22 25 0 1.50-1.75

And a history – Intended federal funds rate change, 1990 to present.

I should say 3% in 2019 is not undoable. But the core difference is a marketing issue. Robinhood could invest in higher yield products.

But in consumers’ view, it is truly disrupting and may level up the playground for all players in this field.

The time of easy money is gone. The startups or new initiatives with better and sustainable solutions (usually tech-oriented) are attacking the incumbents. Robinhood may or may not be the one (and this may not be the exact right approach), but the industry needs to be prepared.

Beyond Cars – Bike & Scooter Sharing in Age of Ride-Hailing

共享自行车已经进入市场很多年，模式上在近年有多方面突破；另一方面，以 Birds 为首的美国 scooter 的热潮从 2017 年开始迅速蔓延，之前的共享自行车公司也找到了美国新的突破口，毕竟相比于中国自行车的普及和流行，美国自行车一直处于出行需求的角落（有安全监管、道路等因素）。

大多数共享自行车和共享 scooter 诞生之初，就内涵了与 uber/lyft 相近的模式和基因，又同时在解决一个大问题的不同局部。它们早晚会相遇是公认的事实。

各自 2019 年 IPO 计划的临近，出于公司定位和战略说明的角度，以及财务角度，uber 和 lyft 的出手之快出乎一些意料（相比于市场的成熟度和发展时间），却也极其合理。这篇 blog 主要关于 lyft 的收购。

2018 年 4 月，uber 率先宣布了第一笔交易，$100 – 200 mn 收购 JUMP Bike。

JUMP Bike | Source: uber.com/ride/uber-bike/

2018 年 6 月，有报道 Lyft 在寻求 $250 mn 收购 Motivate（旗下拥有纽约的 Citi Bike 和加州的 Ford GoBike 等）；uber 也尝试参与，竞价收购，最后 7 月初由 Lyft 拿下。
– Motivate 2017 rev. $100 mn, ~ half coming from sponsorship
– Motivate has ~30k bikes, operating in 8 US cities – Citi Bike (New York), Ford GoBike (San Francisco Bay area), Divvy (Chicago), Blue Bikes (Boston metro area), Capital Bikeshare (Washington, D.C. metro area), BIKETOWN (Portland metro area), CoGo (Columbus, Ohio), and Nice Ride (Minneapolis)
– 纽约的 Citi Bike 用户数约 15 万；For GoBike 17 年6 月与 Ford 达成合作正式 launch，截至 18 年 1 月用户数近 1 万
– Motivate has an advantage of exclusive deal terms with cities including NYC, SF, among others
– Motivate’s bikes are dock-based, which was an old model but fit with cities like NYC
– Unionized workers (~600) are a major issue, which was not included in the acquisition

收购后，Lyft 将投入 $100 mn 发展 Citi Bike，五年内自行车数量增加两倍将达近 4 万。

Citi Bike | Source: citibikenyc.com
Citi Bike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: citibikenyc.com/pricing

在湾区，尽管开始时 Motivate 有 exclusive 合同，但由于纽约和 SF 有一个区别在于 SF 很多上下坡，在曼哈顿适用的自行车在 SF 的使用场景大幅缩减，电动助力自行车 (e-bike) 的需求凸显。这给了其它 bike-sharing 公司一个绝佳的机会，以 e-bike 的形式抢进 SF 市场，绕开 Motivate 的排他性条款，比如 Social Bicycles。随后 SF 与 Motivate 达成和解，基本算允许了其它电动自行车的试验，尽管有数量限制。

Ford GoBike 在今年 1 月展示了 e-bike 之后，于 4 月在 SF 正式 launch 了电动自行车。

Ford GoBike @ SAP Center, San Jose | Source: fordgobike instagram
Ford GoBike Plus with pedal assist (电动助力)，服务 SF 市场，18 年 4 月 正式 launch，首批 250 辆 | Source: fordgobike.com/plus
Ford GoBike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: fordgobike.com/pricing

18 年 1 月，SF 的第一个无桩 bike-sharing permit， 250 辆，给了 JUMP (formerly Social Bicycle，见上文)，JUMP 自行车是全电动 (和 scooter，也是电动)。

这也是 uber CEO 后来解释 JUMP 收购时一直强调的每个城市/地区的不同，需要 city-by-city 地考虑。uber 选择从 SF 开始发力。

Lyft 选择了更高的起点。Motivate 确实是体量更大、更成熟的 bike-sharing 公司。加之 e-bike 的额外成本，以及 permit 的数量显示，仅依靠 JUMP 或许会让 uber 在这个局部战场输给 Lyft。

2017 total bike-sharing trips taken in millions | Source: nacto.org

加之 scooter 的起飞（全部为电动），尤其在加州主要城市的流行，不出意外，uber 在寻求另一起收购，一起这个领域决定性的收购，Uber said to be negotiating a multibillion-dollar takeover of scooter-sharing startup。

Consolidation 不仅没有缺席，而且会来得更快。

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Ohio Accepting Cryptocurrency for Tax – Pure Personal Interest or A Move to Future?

Ohio is becoming the first state to accept crypto as tax payments on https://ohiocrypto.com/.

The move is made by Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel. Born in Sep. 1977, he had made several moves after being elected as Ohio State Treasurer in Dec. 2010, including OhioCheckbook.com that posts all state spending information on the internet for better government transparency.

The current cryptocurrency accepted is Bitcoin, with more to come. A third party cryptocurrency payment processor, BitPay, will serve between taxpayers and Ohio State Treasury, so that the former will pay crypto and the latter will receive dollar.

Although the State Treasurer himself is said to be an enthusiast of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, it might as well be seen as a state-level move to differentiate itself and embrace the future tech world. According to TechCrunch, Ohio has other moves to become tech-friendly including a technology hub forming in Columbus, home to one of the largest venture capital funds in the Midwest, Drive Capital. And Cleveland (the city once called “the mistake on the lake”) is trying to remake itself in cryptocurrency’s image with a new drive to rebrand the city as “Blockland”, etc. Columbus also reported last year that its Smart Columbus program had an expanded $417 million in resources to turn Columbus into the testing ground for intelligent-transportation systems.

Politics and future development is more interconnected than ever. Policy makers are becoming smarter and seeing/learning the tech future as others. “Policy infrastructure” played an important role in the past and will continue to do so. Each city/state may have a specialization and leveraging its hub effect. Blockchain is one of those “specializations” that many are going after. China and US are no different in terms of this strategy of development.

An Often-Ignored Factor Affecting Wine Industry – Global Warming

In wine’s history, we human began to enjoy/produce those fermented grape beverages some 6,000-9,000 years ago.

Monrovia
Cabernet Sauvignon Grape

The well-known classification system for Bordeaux wines started in 1855 by Napoleon III using their producers’ names.  A château (a french house/castle) usually gives its name to the wine produced in its neighborhood.  The system has five levels for red wine, with Premiers Crus being the best, which now includes 5 châteaux.

winewordsandvideotape.com
Château Lafite Rothschild

But after nearly 200 years, things have changed fundamentally, e.g. global warming among many others.

Wine is essentially a pre-industrial-age agricultural invention. Grapes are inherently affected by climate changes (including not only temperature, but also drought for example).

What we deemed best in 1850s should be different from those in today’s league table.

Source: Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites

Due to global warming, the best grape varieties and growing locations for wine can hardly stay the same by the end of 21st century. Some have predicted that average global temperature could rise by 11.5° F this century if no human interventions to mitigate the causes.

A relatively extreme prediction in a 2013 study claims that wines from Burgundy, Napa Valley and other premium regions, will disappear within the next 50 years (and blue regions are future suitable areas to grow grapes).

Global change in viticulture suitability | Source: PNAS

However, wine to some extent is like art works. Values of wine aren’t mostly depending on how it tastes; many other factors such as traditions or experience are making it a more complex industry.

Visit Calistoga

While similar to other industries that the established or incumbents are not willing to/refuse to change, new opportunities will rely on new vineyards/newcomers and those choose to expand or create new brands.

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3 Thoughts on WSJ’s New “Best U.S. Airport Rank 2018”

Wall Street Journey took an new initiatives to rank the 20 largest US airports by a basket of measurements, including 14 factors and 1 survey.

Here is the link to the WSJ post and a screenshot of top 10 candidates.

Source: WSJ

Some interesting metrics used include Yelp ratings for food, Wifi speed, UberX fare to convention center, etc..

The WSJ’s new ranking is also interesting itself.

Thought 1: Useless (for travelers)

No one travels just because there is a convenient/cheap airport.

People travel when they know where they need to be. Then it doesn’t matter if the wifi speed is slow or not. Gonna be there anyway.

Thought 2: Informative for new business/conference

When a new conference is planned, lots of research need to be done. The airport could be one of the important factors. UberX fare between airport and convention center should be used to choose new venue of events/conferences/assemblies.

But not the other way around.

thought 3: educational for airport operators

The rank might be useful for airport operators to learn how to improve their travelers’ overall experience.

It could be used as KPI for its employees or management team.

It could also be seen as a COMPLAINT.

For example, JFK and Newark airport have a reliability score of 16.5 and 9.5 respectively – out of 100 (Phoenix airport is the highest in reliability with 80.5); Newark airport has a value score of 13.5 out of 100 versus Orlando’s 77.

The writer/reporter or the team behind the rank must be very upset/disappointed with New York’s airports – Newark, JFK and LaGuardia have the three lowest overall score… among 20 airports.

#HowToComplain #InAProfessionalManner

 

Baby Bear Climbing the Cliff and 3 Takeaways

A truly inspiring short video of a baby bear trying REALLY hard to climb the cliff

– shot in Jun. 2018 in Russia and originally published here two days ago. (I first saw the video here)

Three takeaways –

1/ NEVER give up & KEEP trying (different paths) after fallbacks (no matter how far you have fallen. [for baby bears]

2/ BE patient & wait for others who are behind. You being there and showing confidence might be the best support. [for bears on top of the cliff]

3/ DON’T operate drone like that. The major fall at 1:13 is due to the approaching of the scary drone. [for human observers]

The video was downloaded from Twitter so that it can be seen from where Twitter/Youtube currently doesn’t operate.

Global Warming and Lobsters

Here is a perfect follow-up on last week’s blog of Global Warming and Wine.

Clearly, global warming will not only drive vineyard northward, but also lobsters. And it is happening now as animals can move freely.

Source: Reuters

[The following is from Reuter’s special report on The Great Lobster Rush]

Lobster industry was a nautical gold rush. Two generations ago, the entire New England coast had a thriving lobster industry.

Today, lobster catches have collapsed in southern New England, and the only state with a significant harvest is north in Maine, where the seafood practically synonymous with the state has exploded.

Now lobsters keep running to the north and going deeper in the water. Maine might be in trouble after another 5-15 years.

Rising temperatures along the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean will force American lobsters (H. americanus) farther offshore and into more northern waters, a new study finds. Credit: Natalie Renier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

That’s happening not only to lobster, but literally to all marine species.

In the U.S. North Atlantic, fisheries data show that at least 85 percent of the nearly 70 federally tracked species have shifted north or deeper, or both, in recent years when compared to the norm over the past half-century. And the most dramatic of species shifts have occurred in the last 10 or 15 years.

Summer flounder’s center of species | Source: NOOA/Oceanadapt, Rugster U., Reuters

Similar findings in a map of predicted migration – marine species are moving northward to colder waters.

Source: Pew

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