Airline Operation Results 2017 & 2018

Wrote a little python… to extract the monthly operation results from airlines, and calculated load factor change, RPM change and ASM change.

  • RPM = Revenue passenger miles, and its percentage change year-over-year
  • ASM = Available seat miles, its percentage change year-over-year
  • Load factor = RPM / ASM, its change year-over-year
  • RPM_g = RPM(t) / RPM (t-12) – 1
  • ASM_g = ASM(t) / ASM (t-12) – 1

I did Alaska and Southwest tonight and will add more…


Data Download:

Alaska Air Group operation results

Southwest Airlines operation results

Only 5% of Earth Land Unmodified by Human

How much of the terrestrial lands have been modified by human beings?

A recent study published on Global Change Biology revealed a far lower estimate of 5% than the previous 19%.

(a) Cumulative human modification (HMc) across global terrestrial lands | Source: Global Change Biology

Thirteen human factors in 6 categories are considered in calculation.

  • human settlement (population density and built‐up areas)
  • agriculture (cropland and livestock)
  • transportation (major roads, minor roads, two tracks, and railroads)
  • mining
  • energy production (oil wells and wind turbines)
  • electrical infrastructure (powerlines and nighttime lights)

Meanwhile, nearly 50% of the lands are considered with low human modification.

So there is a contrast of how little of the land (5%) we haven’t touched and how much of the land we haven barely explored (44%)

 

2019 US Cancer Update by American Cancer Society

The annual report from American Cancer Society is up today, available 1) in the article format “Cancer Statistics, 2019” (published in the American Cancer Society’s journal CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians), 2) in a companion report, Cancer Facts and Figures 2019, and 3) on the interactive website, the Cancer Statistics Center.

Steady Decline In Cancer Death in US

Compiled within includes the death rate of cancer through 2016. It marked a continuous 25-year of decline in cancer death in US since 1991.

The overall age-adjusted cancer death rate rose during most of the 20th century, peaking in 1991 at 215 cancer deaths per 100,000 people, mainly because of the tobacco epidemic. As of 2016, the rate had dropped to 156 per 100,000 (a decline of 27%) because of reductions in smoking, as well as improvements in early detection and treatment.

– American Cancer Soceity

Female death rate from major cancers
Male death rate from major cancers
Lung cancer & smoking

While lung cancer is still the largest category, it is declining with the smoking trend as mentioned above.

2019 Cancer Estimation

The 2019 cancer estimation has also come in.

2019 Estimated new cases and deaths of cancer | Source: cancerstatisticscenter.cancer.org

Incidence rates are estimated to be 494.8 and 419.3 per 100,000 population for male and female; death rates are estimated to be 193.1 and 137.7 per 100,000 population for male and female.

In total, there will be an estimated 1,762,450 new cancer cases and 606,880 cancer deaths.

Tough Year for Stock Markets, Okay for Wine and Art

US Equity in 2018

S&P 500 -6.2%

Dow Jones Industrial Average -5.6%

Nasdaq Composite -3.9%

In the fourth quarter specifically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 13.97 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively, their worst quarterly performances since the fourth quarter of 2008. The Dow notched its worst period since the first quarter of 2009, falling nearly 12 percent. (CNBC)

Meanwhile, assets like fine wine and art are gaining

Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index – 2018 | Source: liv-ex.com

According to The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index, which tracks 1,000 wines from across the world, the price has been on a steady rise since May 2016.

People who put money into art at the beginning of the year saw an average gain of 10.6% by the end of November, according to Art Market Research’s Art 100 Index. (WSJ)

And in December’s Art Basel in Miami Beach, one of the world’s preeminent art fairs, things seemed going smooth. In a detailed report, owners of Mark Rothko’s Untitled (Yellow, Orange, Yellow, Light Orange) (1955), a painting purchased at Sotheby’s in 2014 for $36.6 million, was asking $50 million for the painting and said was on reserve later on. “The price tag is high even for the elite Art Basel franchise of fairs.”

In a summary…

Luxury Goods Outperform as Markets Swoon | Source: WSJ

 

Politics in Airline Boarding Process

Since 2017, three major airlines in US have made changes to their boarding process, in the face of different layers/tiers, ticket types and other privileges.

Here is a description of the mess before – “Under American’s old boarding call, Group 1 actually was the fifth group called for boarding, trailing the carrier’s elite frequent-fliers and first- and business-class customers who were subdivided into five groups of their own that all boarded earlier.”

 “Group 1 actually was the fifth group called for boarding”

What are the “new” procedures and how airlines value their customers?

American Airlines – 10 segments

Group Boarding pass type
ConciergeKey℠ members ConciergeKey℠
Group 1 First
Active duty U.S. military with military I.D.
(Business on a 2-class international plane)
Group 2 Executive Platinum
oneworld® Emerald℠
(Business on a 3-class plane)
Group 3 Platinum Pro
Platinum
oneworld® Sapphire℠
Group 4 Gold
oneworld® Ruby℠
AirPass
Premium Economy
Citi® / AAdvantage® Executive cardmembers
Travelers who bought Priority boarding
Group 5 (Preferred boarding) Main Cabin Extra (excluding Basic Economy)
Eligible AAdvantage® credit cardmembers*
Eligible corporate travelers**
Group 6 Group 6
Group 7 Group 7
Group 8 Group 8
Basic Economy to / from Europe
Group 9 Basic Economy within the U.S., Canada, Central America, Mexico & Caribbean

Delta Airlines – 7 segments

Pre-Boarding

Customers needing assistance or additional time to board, including families with car seats or strollers

Active Duty U.S. Military personnel with ID

Premium Boarding Zone

Delta One® customers
First Class customers
Delta Premium Select customers
Diamond Medallion® Members

Sky Priority Boarding Zone

Platinum Medallion® Members
Gold Medallion® Members
Delta Comfort+® customers
Flying Blue Platinum and Gold members
Virgin Atlantic Flying Club Gold members
Virgin Australia Platinum and Gold members
GOL Smiles Diamond members
SkyTeam® Elite Plus members

Zone 1

Silver Medallion® Members

Delta Corporate Travelers

Priority Boarding Trip Extra customers
Gold, Platinum and Reserve Delta SkyMiles® Credit Card Members
Flying Blue Silver members
Virgin Australia Velocity Silver members
GOL Smiles Gold members
Sky Team® Elite

Zone 2

Main Cabin Passengers

Zone 3

Main Cabin Passengers booked in T, X and V fares

Zone 4

Basic Economy Passengers (E)

United Airlines – 6 segments

Pre-boarding

  • Unaccompanied minors
  • Customers with disabilities
  • Active members of the military
  • United Global Services® members
  • Families traveling with children age 2 and younger
  • Premier® 1K® members

Group 1

  • Premier Platinum members
  • Premier Gold members
  • Star Alliance™ Gold members
  • Customers seated in premium cabins: United Polaris®, United First® and United Business®

Group 2

  • Premier Silver members
  • Star Alliance Silver members
  • Customers who have purchased Premier Access® or Priority Boarding
  • United℠ Explorer, Club, Presidential Plus℠ and Awards Cardmembers

Groups 3 – 5

  • Economy Plus®
  • United Economy®
  • Basic Economy*

* Customers who have purchased a Basic Economy ticket will be in the last boarding group, except for Premier members, Chase Cardmembers of qualifying cards and Star Alliance Gold members, who will still receive their priority boarding.

..

Just a reflection on the complicated business development efforts and corporate strategies… think about the internal slides behind the schemes

When Trump Didn’t Get The Border Wall Funding…

Source: Author, gofundme.com

A screenshot on Thursday Dec. 21 at around 5:45pm PST, nearly $10mn has been raised for “The Wall”… out of the $1bn target for the project on gofundme.com.

[The wall funding issue has been the center of government shutdown. The dispute around the funding escalated on Dec. 11 when Trump, Nancy Pelosi (leader of the House Democrats), Chuck Schumer (Senate Minority Leader) “publicly clashed” in oval office meeting.]

But Trump insisted on $5bn..  so $10mn is only ~0.2% of his goal.

The campaign creator mentioned that the government projects had been funded by private sectors before, i.e. Washington Monument repair of $7.5mn (kinda tiny compared to $5bn).

The approach was creative tho.

Drones In The Airport

Signature events will move regulation forward.

That is what drones will be facing after a catastrophic shut down of the second largest airport in UK due to a single drone.

While the drone came back every time the airport tried to reopen, the operator(s) hasn’t been found/caught.

An “effective” measure and procedure to prevent similar things will be formulated.

But problems won’t be solved.

I see drone issues more like gun issues – and eventually might be a “to-ban-or-not-to-ban” choice made by countries. Or a strict military control of technology.

This event will certainly make itself in the future history when regulations are put together.

Softbank Telecomm Unit IPO

Shares closed nearly 15% below the ¥1,500 initial offering price

The IPO raised ¥2.65 trillion ($23.6 billion), second only to the 2014 listing of China’s Alibaba. (WSJ article)

SoftBank Group has larger debt and commitments – investment as an obiligation.

Cash is the paramount consideration, especially in an interest rate rising environment.

Connection with huawei and uses of its equipments added to the hit.