Facts for China new home sales
| 2020 | 2023 | ||
| Sep | Sep | ||
| ‘0000 sqm | 万，平方米 | ||
| Supply | 供应面积 | 7,529 | 2,990 |
| Demand | 成交面积 | 5,228 | 2,262 |
| Inventory | 库存 | 50,739 | 51,221 |
| Sales pace (month) | 9.71 | 22.64 | |
Inventory actually didn’t increase much, flat after 3 three years.
But the willingness to purchase (new homes) has decreased, area sold in Sep 2023 is less than half (43%) of 2020 Sep level.
Therefore, the resulting month-to-clear-for-sale-homes is more than doubled from ~10 month to almost 23 month – it will need almost 2 years to clear new house inventory at current sales pace.
The above figure is for 100 cities in China.
To look at the bottom 10 cities: back in Sep 2020, the worst 10 cities needed 21.5 – 35.3 month to clear inventory whereas in Sep 2023, the worst 10 cities will need 57.6 – 93.9 month to clear inventory.
Source:
http://m.fangchan.com/news/320/2023-10-25/7122778841134993672.html
http://news.dichan.sina.com.cn/2020/10/27/1274844.html