BYD domestic volume in May shows no growth yoy, despite overseas growth of 137% yoy.
YTD (Jan-May), BYD domestic volume has grown 27.5% yoy, but in May it’s flattish yoy at below 300k.
The big promotion in May is probably a reason – dealers might had been waiting for the discount, so that May volume is low.
Current consensus is for BYD to sell ~5.4mn cars in 2025, with overseas contributing 0.8mn and domestic sales reaches 4.6m (to grow near 20% yoy).
China overall passenger car market can grow actually, with cheaper models, large population (4x US!), and shorter holding period for each car (due to battery).
In 2024, U.S. new vehicle sales reached approximately 15.9 million units.
16mn x 4 is 64 million cars per year for China vs. ~22.6 mn passenger cars sold in 2024 in China.
The infrastructure is unlikely to support a sudden increase, but if it increases to 30mn pear year, 70% NEV -> 21mn, 30-33% m/s for BYD -> ~6-7mn is probably the ceiling of domestic volume for BYD.