According to PBOC, till Nov 2025, China residents’ long-term debt only increased 1.27 trillion rmb, compared with 1.95 trillion rmb last year.
If Dec 2025 can add 0.3 trillion like last year, it would be ~1.57 trillion rmb, thus down 30% yoy for 2025 vs 2.25 trillion in 2024.
We have already seen 3-year of consecutive decline new this number.
2021: 6.0759 trillion
2022: 3.0566 trillion (-50% yoy)
2023: 2.5507 trillion (-17% yoy)
2024: 2.25 trillion (-12% yoy)
2025: 1.57 trillion (for illustration, -30%)
This is the new additional long-term debt that households are taking, mostly related to mortgages.
This could be negative number.