Small cap value could outperform

Given the recent bubble-like feeling, it’s useful to see where to hide if this is like dot-com era.

How did small cap value outperform?

1/ less crowded

Small cap value are less exposed to dot-com exuberance. Less impacted by fund inflow/outflow. Less exposed to leverage.

2/ interest rate cuts

In 2001, Fed cuts Fed funds rate target from 6.50% in 2000 to 1.75% in Dec 2001.

Small caps benefits more from rate cuts, as large caps already enjoyed low funding costs.

3/ cheap

Small cap value is better than small cap (Russell 2000) likely due to more margin of safety and little multiple downside (less dream value).

Year IWN / small-cap value Russell 2000
2001 +12.9% +2.5%
2002 -11.4% -20.5%