Sovereign debt is becoming an topic lately with rising yield and France is under the spotlight.
What is considered “dangerous” in sovereign debt?
Probably not just high debt-to-GDP ratio… because Japan is over 200% on the ratio (highest among G20), but is typically not considered the most dangerous.
Japan debt is mostly in yen and held by domestic investors.
I think also need to consider gov revenue as % of GDP and net debt vs gross debt.
Asked ChatGPT and it give me this.
Given Japan’s investor base and USD’s global status, it looks like Indonesia, South Africa are the most dangerous, while Italy and UK are the most dangerous among developed countries.
General government; latest available 2025 figures, except Japan and South Korea (2024). Ranked highest to lowest.
| Rank | Country | Net debt / GDP | Revenue / GDP | Net debt / revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan* | 141.1% | 35.5% | 3.98x |
| 2 | United States | 96.7% | 30.5% | 3.17x |
| 3 | Indonesia | 38.5% | 13.3% | 2.90x |
| 4 | South Africa | 75.7% | 28.5% | 2.66x |
| 5 | Italy | 127.7% | 48.1% | 2.65x |
| 6 | United Kingdom | 93.6% | 38.2% | 2.45x |
| 7 | Mexico | 53.2% | 25.0% | 2.13x |
| 8 | France | 108.4% | 52.2% | 2.08x |
| 9 | Brazil | 66.8% | 39.5% | 1.69x |
| 10 | Germany | 47.1% | 47.2% | 1.00x |
| 11 | Saudi Arabia | 22.6% | 23.3% | 0.97x |
| 12 | Australia | 33.9% | 36.7% | 0.92x |
| 13 | Türkiye | 18.0% | 29.5% | 0.61x |
| 14 | Canada | 10.4% | 42.3% | 0.25x |
| 15 | South Korea* | 8.1% | 32.0% | 0.25x |
| — | China | N/A | 25.0% | N/A |
| — | India | N/A | 20.9% | N/A |
| — | Argentina | N/A | 31.0% | N/A |
| — | Russia | N/A | 35.3% | N/A |
Sources: IMF WEO net-debt series and general-government revenue series, via IndexBox and The Economy Pulse. Ratios calculated from rounded inputs. *Japan and South Korea use 2024 data because matched 2025 revenue and net-debt observations were not independently verified. The figures are indicative and underlying publication vintages may differ.