Gold has fallen approximately 27% from its January 2026 all-time high ($5,595) to below $4,000 recently ($3,899 on October 30).
To be fair, it rose 65% in 2025 alone. Investors are still sitting on substantial gains if they entered the trade early.
Historically, gold has experienced several major drawdowns of 40–60%.
According to the World Gold Council, gold has experienced five major historical bear runs, each involving a decline greater than 20%.
| Period | Previous rally | Peak-to-trough decline | Duration of decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1974–1976 | +353% | −43% | 21 months |
| 1980–1982 | +541% | −52% | 22 months |
| 1983–1985 | +57% | −57% | 25 months |
| 1987–1999 | +71% | −48% | ~12 years |
| 2011–2015 | +612% | −42% | 52 months |
Source: World Gold Council via ChatGPT
US real yields (rising), the dollar (strong) are the two major forces to drive gold price down.
In 2026, US real yields rose from below 2% at the beginning of the year to almost 3% by end of October – that is a 1% increase, but still not that big compared with previous periods of gold declines (1974–1976 and 1980–1982).
The 2011-2015 gold decline – real yield rose small.
