The mass production of Model 3 in 2018 H2 helped to improve the automotive sales gross margin in Q3 and Q4.
However, due to the price reduction in 2019 Q1, less absorption of fixed cost and more international deliveries, the automotive sales gross margin went back to the 18-19% region in 2019 Q1.
Though, Tesla reaffirmed its prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, thanks to the confidence in Model 3.
China Sales
Although China (China and Europe mainly) sales in 2018 decreased compared to 2017, Tesla’s March performance in China is exceptional, with 9,273 in total (Model 3: 7515; Model X: 1490; Model S: 268)
Tesla Vehicles Sold in China 2019 Q1 | Source: Che Jing She, sohu.com
Many attributed the jump in sales to the “one time” price adjustment in China, including a ¥341 drop in the most expansive Model X (P100D), which then corrected by a general 3% increase.
Source: sohu.com
But the ongoing sales numbers is still in question.
When all the fellow streaming platforms are adding their original content capacities, on April 11, the biggest original content provider Disney Group finalized the pricing ($6.99/month) of its own streaming platform, Disney+. And the official US launch date is later this year on November 12.
Disney+ pricing | Source: Disney investor day presentation
What we’re going to do with the Disney direct-to-consumer app or platform is, first of all, we’re going to launch it in late 2019. We’re doing that for 2 reasons. First of all, as we exit the Netflix output deal, we don’t get access to our theatrical release movies until the beginning of ’19. Secondly, we wanted time to actually develop and build up original programming for the platform.
Following the 2016 transaction, Disney made plans to test BAMTech’s delivery and support of streaming video and other digital products from Disney|ABC Television Group and ESPN.
ESPN+ as a test-out
Following the 2017 transaction, Disney said it would launch its ESPN-branded multi-sport video streaming service in early 2018.
What is different though, is that the content on ESPN+ is not a replacement of cable subscriptions (at least for now). ESPN Plus will not provide live access to ESPN’s main channels like ESPN and ESPN2 – you’ll still need a cable subscription to authenticate and watch. [TechCrunch]
new ESPN app and ESPN+ | Source: theverge.com
After all, ESPN is originally a cable business and sports are heavily rely on ads. ESPN+ is an ad-embedded streaming service (video ads).
Zoom is relatively young. It maintained high growth (2018 revenue of $331 million, 2017 revenue of $151 million) and is expected to grow fast.
Zoom is making a net profit in 2018 (~2.3% profit margin) and has maintained a high gross margin (~80%).
Source: Zoom SEC Filing. Author
Growth in customers – “As of January 31, 2017, 2018 and 2019, we had approximately 10,900, 25,800 and 50,800 customers with more than 10 employees.” they “represented 69%, 75% and 78% of revenue“
Market Size – In the US, business with
10-19 employees: 46,635
20-49 employees: 37,495
50-249 employees: 23,065
250 or more: 5,672
~113k in total, so Zoom has another 50% room to grow (will be harder and more costly)
market penetration and growth opportunity in large enterprise customers – “greater than 50% of the Fortune 500 had at least one paid Zoom host, compared to only 4% that contributed more than $100,000 of revenue. We believe this demonstrates that our product has already gained a foothold in many of the largest enterprises in the United States, and there is a large opportunity to expand within these large enterprise customers”
Revenue per large enterprise customer will grow, easily – “Some of our larger enterprise customers start with a single deployment of Zoom Meetings with one team, location or geography, before rolling out our platform throughout their organization.” “As of January 31, 2017, 2018 and 2019, we had 54, 143 and 344 customers that contributed more than $100,000 of revenue in each of their respective fiscal years”
Zoom’s future depends on its business outside video conferencing; it could grow into an essential infrastructure for business operations; it could do more than video conferencing, but also scheduling, internal messaging and other management tools.
Starbucks Rewards April 2019 | Source: starbucks.com
Taking the previous revamp into account, from pre-April-2016 to post-April-2019, the program has been through 2 major changes with “points inflation” being the unchanged theme.
Let’s go back and do some calculation.
Program Redesign In April 2016
Starbucks Rewards has been through a redesign in April 2016, which transformed the transaction-based system into a value-based one.
Basically, before 2016, a $1.95 purchase is equivalent to a $5+ purchase in terms of stars earned (1 star; 12 starts = 1 free drink).
Starbucks Rewards revamp in April 2016 | Source: starbucks.com
Assuming a customer would use his/her stars for a free item with an average value of $5:
For a customer normally purchase an item of $2.5 to earn stars, the reward yield is approximately halved:
previously – 5/(12*2.5) = 16.67%
2016 program – 5/(125/2/2.5*2.5) = 8%
For a customer normally purchase an item of $3.5 to earn stars, the reward yield is cut by 1/3:
previously – 5/(12*3.5) = 12%
2016 program – 5/(125/2/3.5*3.5) = 8%
This change was resonating with a broader trend in “rewards” offered by consumer-facing industries such as airlines.
United award miles redesign | Source: thepointsguy.com
Program Redesign In April 2019
As I mentioned at the beginning, the new program features a 20% inflation in terms of redeeming free drinks.
For dollar values, in the 2016-version, a Starbucks star is approximately worth 4 cents ($5/125); now, it is approximately 3.33 cents ($5/150). [to enhance the utility, one could order a venti drink and add a shot, making free drink ~$9 so a star is worth ~7 cents before and ~6 cents in the new program]
However, better yields could be found in hot coffee/tea.
hot tea usually has a price of $2.25/2.45/2.65 for tall/grande/venti size; simply taking it as a $2.5 value, a star = $2.5/50 = 5 cents
hot coffee (in brewed coffee category) usually has a price of $2.15/2.45/2.75 for tall/grande/venti size; in a venti size coffee, a star = $2.75/50 = 5.5 cents
there is a brewed product called Caffe Misto, which has a value of $3.35 for venti size, then a star = 6.67 cents
for lunch items, to make a star’s value above 4 cents, items needs to have a value of $8; and a $10 item for 5 cents value. Those items could be easily found in Starbucks’ new Mercato lunch category
The items above will maintain the value of stars and provide the valuable revenue diversification for Starbucks (especially for lunch items).
Plus, those items usually involve less manual work from baristas. They could enhance the overall productivity for Starbucks stores and increase the profit margin on average.
Future is closer than most will believe. Drone delivery is yet another example.
Imagined Reality
A few days ago (around April Fools’ Day), a FAKE video (by rendering) populated on Twitter, presenting an Amazon mothership equipped with drones.
However, this may not be far away from what the future will look like, especially for the drone part.
Amazon’s Plan
The idea could be seen in an Amazon patent US000009305280B120160405 filed in December 2014 and issued by the USPTO in April 2016.
Amazon patent for massive flying warehouses equipped with fleets of drones that deliver goods to key locations | Source: BBC
This is part of Amazon Prime Air program first announced in 2013. It looks more viable on the drone-only side, the first delivery made in December 2016 in Cambridge, UK.
And in 2017, an Amazon Prime Air drone dropped off some bottles of sunscreen for attendees at the company’s invite-only MARS conference in California. [The Verge]
The deliveries will start with roughly 100 homes in the Canberra area. The drones are required to operate during daylight hours, banned from crossing over major roads and there’s a minimum distance they have to maintain from people on the ground.
Following California’s ban in November 2016, New York State will begin a similar ban of single use plastic bags in March 2020, according to its FY2020 budget agreement.
According to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, an estimated 23 billion plastic bags are used by residents across the state annually. New York City alone uses more than 10 billion single-use plastic bags a year. [National Geographic]
If 5 billion recycled paper bags are used in the new program with a 5-cent fee, New York City will generate an additional $250 million. [40 percent will be supporting local programs to buy reusable bags for low and fixed income consumers, and 60 percent will be supporting programs in the State’s Environmental Protection Fund]
Once characterized as the challenger for Facebook, Snap Inc. has faced fierce competitions from FB’s Instagram, which introduced a similar story feature in August 2016.
Snapchat vs. Instagram users comparison | Source: statista
By and large, Snap is learning from Facebook and is pivoting to becoming an “infrastructure”.
Broadly speaking, many firms are pursuing the infrastructure play: AWS wants to be the infrastructure for internet services (servers); Facebook & Google want to be the infrastructure of ads; Twitter & Youtube contents can be embedded in various ways, etc.
Snapchat Audience Network is also being built to help other apps to monetize – a revenue-sharing practise to expand the audience/utility of Snap Ads, so that people who are not on Snapchat will be broadcasted the ads created by advertisers through Snap. [Read more about Facebook Audience Network]
Additionallly (besides ads), Snap announced the partnership with Fitbit to integrate Bitmoji avatars to Fitbit’s devices (Fitbit Ionic™ and Fitbit Versa™), a clock face that dynamically updates throughout the day based on your personal health and fitness data, activity, time of day, and weather. Also, Bitmoji will be seen on Venmo.
Corporate bonds are popular, especially those sold by companies that have strong cash flows like Tencent and Saudi Aramco.
For investors, investments in those bonds are not as volatile as equities.
For corporates, there is no dilution in earnings and they could benefit from growth investments with low cost of capital.
Two recent examples (this week): Tencent and Saudi Aramco.
Tencent has been a very active investor in Chinese and global markets. It is one of the two modern “empires” rooted in China (the other being Alibaba). Some of its global investment include:
Tencent just announced that it has raised $6 billion in a bond sale, including $2 billion in fixed and floating rate five-year notes, $500 million in seven-year notes, $3 billion in 10-year notes and $500 million in 30-year notes, carrying coupons of 3.280 percent, 3.575 percent, 3.975 percent and 4.525 percent on the fixed rate five-year notes, seven-year notes, 10-year notes and 30-year notes.
Essentially, Saudi (and PIF) and Tencent are getting low-cost capital from bond sales and invest in tech. And the risks for bond investors are low, given Aramco’s core assets/cash flows and Tencent’s ubiquitous presence in Chinese economy.
It’s gonna be a good time for startup companies that fit Tencent’s or Saudi’s appetite…
Part III … [see the previous post for Part I and Part II]
Oversupply and Drop in Average Selling Price (ASP)
Compiled from companies’ SEC filings.
TLRY is the only company that didn’t double its sales from Q3 to Q4. The driver here should be the channel discount. CGC’s Q4 sales in kilograms is almost five times the same figure in Q3 (2,197kg -> 10,102kg), while TLRY is only modestly growing comparatively (1,613kg -> 2,053kg, but still very impressive compared with other industries).
Apple News+ is a $10 per month subscription bundle. Essentially, it is a product of “securitization” of reading magazines & newspapers – just like Spotify as a securitization of listening to musics.
Apple News | Source: apple.com
Apple TV+ will be offered through new Apple TV app. This is important as it might be the first major service/software by Apple that doesn’t require an Apple device.
Apple TV app | Source: apple.com
It doesn’t have a price tag yet. And it is reported that Apple will partner with brands like HBO to offer an add-on option (i.e. additional $10 per month), just like what Hulu, DirectTV and many other streaming plans are providing.
Another question tho, is how the Apple TV app (and the Apple TV+ service) will impact the sales of Apple TV as it will be available on many smart TVs such as Roku, Fire TV (Amazon), Samsung, etc.
Apple TV app availability | Source: apple.comApple TV 4K | Source: apple.com
Apple Arcade is coming sooner that I thought. And it will be a cross-platform product working across iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple TV.
Apple Arcade | Source: apple.com
It is a very good showcase/test of how Apple is merging or making it compatible between iOS and MacOS (and tvOS).
What’s next?
A master membership from Apple is possible – something like $98 per month that includes Apple TV+, Apple News+, Apple Music, Apple Arcade, iCloud storage, AppleCare, etc.
Or a modular membership system.
At the core could be the financing of Apple devices’ purchases – maybe around $30-50 per month – and each subscription will be an add-on. This may provide an extra synergy with the new credit card service by Apple and Goldman Sachs.
Apple Card | Source: apple.com
Apple has those great plans to translate sales and customers into cash flows.
But for consumers, there will be some psychological differences between purchasing a device (as an asset) and paying an indefinite monthly fee (as an expenditure). And services are not as showable as devices. Apple (and Apple investors) might need to prepare and think carefully about those subtle changes.
