Taobao is powerful but probably should not be the first word to describe Chinese retailing and consumers’ choices.
T-mall and JD might be considered as the second generation e-commerce in China, where branded goods are sold.
With the rise of Chinese middle class and their disposable incomes, retailers found that they are willing to pay a little extra to get a sense of some kinds of “premium”.
So there arises a wave of e-commerce efforts that are selective about their offerings, in terms of quality and design. Meanwhile, some marketplace will emphasize on their own brand (website/marketplace), instead of the brands of the products – somewhat similar to “AmazonBasics” but more correctly “AmazonPremium”.
Yanxuan (网易严选), by NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES), might be the most successful one.
It started with products made by original manufacturers who supply to top international brands, hitting consumers’ sweet spot in price and quality.
NetEase Yanxuan | Source: you.163.com
Xiaomi has a similar strategy but featuring more of its own products or affiliated products. on Xiaomi Youpin (小米有品), independent of its core Mi Store (小米商城).
Xiaomi Youpin | Source: xiaomiyoupin.com
Alibaba has its response under Taobao’s name called Taobao Xinxuan (淘宝心选), making Xinxuan its own brand.
Taobao Xinxuan | Source: good.world.tmall.com
Updated
From NetEase 2018 Q4 earnings report, we could see its E-commerce net revenues were RMB6,678.7 million (US$971.4 million), an increase of 43.5%
compared with the fourth quarter of 2017. (Its e-commerce revenue includes Yanxuan and Kaola)
2018 full year net revenues from e-commerce were RMB19,235.5 million (US$2,797.7 million), an increase of 64.8% compared to RMB11,670.4 million for fiscal year 2017.
The new e-commerce unit will be as important as gaming to NetEase, with 3 sub-teams: Yanxuan, Kaola and Amazon China. The latter two might combine into one team.
And Yanxuan has opened it first offline store in Hangzhou last December
Tesla is the leader in the electric vehicle market obviously, but it may not be the only winner. As technology matures and become more advanced, it will become more of a business competition (assuming design & production generally won’t be a problem in the next decade).
And another round of fresh financing in this field is showing us the future to come, probably with a few leaders in different sub-segments of EV market.
Led by Amazon, the $700 million investments in Rivian, announced on February 15, is the latest move. As the leader in electric pickup and SUV, Rivian will help Amazon to build the next generation logistics network. After all, although amazon is in e-commerce (and other) business, it is also a logistics company (so does Walmart). In the next 15-30 years will have its own (delivery) network & infrastructure, independent of USPS, UPS, FedEx, etc., comprised of (autonomous) airliner, trucks, delivery robots, etc… Yes, Amazon may become similar to the US postal system in the 19th century.
R1T Electric Truck (updated in Jan 2021; previous link broken) | Source: RivianR1T Truck expected spec | Source: Rivian
Just before that, on February 7, Aurora has raised more than $530 million in Series B financing for its self-driving technology, led by Sequoia Capital and includes “significant investment” from Amazon. [Techcrunch]
The investment was reported in early January [recode] and not a good news for companies like Tesla. The team is led by 3 industry leaders: CEO Chris Urmson, who was the CTO for Waymo, CPO (chief product officer) Sterling Anderson, Tesla’s former head of Autopilot, and CTO Drew Bagnellone, one of the founding members of Uber’s autonomous efforts. Aurora is now valued at more than $2.5 billion.
Meanwhile, Tesla Semi is probably still the most ready and earliest e-truck with auto-pilot. First unveiled in November 2017, Tesla Semi has its prototype traveled by itself (without any escort or accompanying vehicles) for a week to arrive at the J. B. Hunt headquarters in Arkansas on August 24, 2018.
What’s cool is that it was driven across the country alone (no escort or any accompanying vehicles), using the existing Tesla Supercharger network and an extension cord
Other self-driving companies have started to explore use cases.
Cruise Automation, the self-driving unit of General Motors, is teaming up with DoorDash to test a food delivery service in San Francisco using autonomous vehicles. The pilot will commence in “early 2019.” [Verge]
The European aerospace group said it had made the “painful” decision to stop making A380 after Emirates, the biggest customer, reduced an outstanding order for 53 planes to only 14. [The Guardian]
A380 is the world’s largest passenger airliner, a wide-body aircraft manufactured by Airbus. The project was announced in 1990 to challenge the dominance of the Boeing 747.
Source: The Guardian
Boeing’s 747 project had its origin in a US Air Force requirement for a large heavy-lift transport carrying up to 750 troops over long distances. Losing that contract, however, made Boeing to pursue it in high-capacity commercial jet transportation. [Air Force One, the presidential aircraft version of the 747 will be modified based on 747-8; Boeing received the contract in July 2018 – a $3.9 billion contract to build two, due to be delivered by December 2024]
Boeing’s board of directors decided to launch the 747 in March 1966, making its decision public in April, along with an announcement that Pan Am had placed its first order for 25 at $20 million each. First flown commercially in 1970 with Pan American Airways, the 747 held the passenger capacity record for 37 years.
Conceived as a response to the Boeing 747, the Airbus A380 development program was officially launched in June 1994. It is the largest jet airliner ever built and is the world’s first double-deck passenger aircraft. First flight took place from Toulouse, France on 27 April 2005, A380 completed its first commercial with Singapore Airlines on October 25th 2007 with 471 passengers on board (breaking 747’s record).
Commercial Success?
A380 took the realm and record in terms of manufacturing and engineering, but is often considered an unsuccessful commercial product. As of January, Airbus had received 313 firm orders for the passenger version of the plane, of which 234 had been delivered.
high fuel prices, high operating cost and environmental concerns
airlines looking at Boeing’s new family of 777s
Now, the world’s largest passenger airliner will not be produced after 2021.
The Economics
The rising global demand in the 21st century is the underlying theme, especially the rapidly rising number of air travelers in the Asia and Middle East market.
The center of Airbus’ pitch for the A380 in the early 2000s was the notion that the core of the long haul business model would be so-called hub-to-hub flights. [AirwaysMag]
On the other hand, Boeing is pursing the point-to-point (more accurately hub-to-spoke) thesis.
Boeing’s 777X, specifically the larger 777-9X variant, offers similar performance (the A380 can fly slightly further) to the A380. And pretty much every other carrier with a hub network large enough to support an A380 has ordered either the Boeing 777X or the Airbus A350. [AirwaysMag]
The airline industry is planned and started as fragmented. Then comes bankruptcy and consolidation.
And airlines are also sharing world hubs or exploring second/third tier cities. (it’s not common for a single airline to secure the majority share of an international traffic hub – which would make A380 a wise choice/investment)
Airbus may have bet that countries like China and India will have large demand centered around one or two cities. But the reality is the opposite. They have planned ahead to spread out and made several international hubs.
First tier airports/cities in terms of size will add new members to its list. That’s how the predicted increase in demand mostly absorbed.
Smart building is a hot topic and will be at the center of future real estate, a $217 trillion giant industry.
So what is the core segments of smart building? This blog will provide a roundup of startups in the data + management space.
Comfy (developed by Building Robotics)
Probably most famous for its collaboration with WeWork in 2016, Comfy is an app that lets users to adjust the temperature, lights etc. in the office from smartphones.
Comfy app | Source: comfyapp.com
Plus a data analysis and insights tool for office managers.
Comfy app | Source: comfyapp.com
The company was founded in 2012, raised Seed & Series A from Claremont Creek Ventures and other investors including the Westly Group. In 2016, shortly before the WeWork collaboration, a Series B of $12 million was raised. Then in 2018, Building Robotics was acquired by Siemens (in a series of acquisitions) for an undisclosed amount.
Euclid
Euclid is a leading spatial-analytics platform based in San Francisco. With fundings from NEA, Benchmark and other investors, It has built a proprietary analytic offering that uses WiFi signals to understand how space is used without the installation of any additional hardware. It can track the identity and behavior of people in the physical world.
A retailer application of Eculid’s technology | Source: marketingland.com
A maker of office management software, Teem was acquired by WeWork in Sep 2018 for around $100 million. Teem has grown from a conference room management tool to include office space management, (office) room display, visitor management, etc.
Back in 2013, it raised $9 million from Aster Capital (backed by Schneider
Electric, Alstom and Solvay), the Venture Capital unit of Siemens Financial Services (SFS VC) and Paladin Capital.
BuildingIQ Mobile App | Source: buildingiq.com/app
Formerly known as SCIenergy, Flywheel is a maintenance (task) & energy management startup based in Dallas. Invested by DFJ, Flywheel raised its latest round in 2014 by a group of energy focused funds, led by Braemar Energy Ventures and joined by the Westly Group and others.
Source: flywheelbi.comSource: flywheelbi.com
Consolidation is coming faster than most could imagine…
Apple has talked about its services for a while and it’s not limited to Apple Care or Genius Bar (“Physical Services”), but more about Distribution Services.
System/Platform Level
I guess the most obvious change happened in 2016 when a new revenue sharing scheme was introduced by Apple – from a 30% cut to a 15%-cut-after-first-year. And other features were included such as “subscription group“… marching into subscription-based services revenue model.
85% net revenue after first year | Source: verge.com
Apple News
Apple News | apple.com
Available in Australia, UK, and US, it’s currently a curated display place for publisher subscriptions. It could be developed into a Toutiao-like app for personalization and could be complimentary with Apple’s Stock app.
And it won’t be surprised to me that in the future you can trade stocks through this app – probably by upgrading to a premium version with other complementary benefits (like news/reports).
Apple Music
Anyway, music is where Apple found its turnaround with iTunes and iPod. Plus, it is the most explored region with established companies and new entrants.
Youtube Music Subscription | Source: youtube.com/musicpremium
Pandora Plus – $4.99/month & Premium – $9.99/month
Pandora Subscription | Source: pandora.com
Apple TV & Streaming Channel
Apple has long reported to be interested in contents distribution especially video. And rumors about an acquisition of Netflix didn’t come from nowhere.
Apple has cash and ability for original contents (and can acquire/build a studio). Apple has educated customer base (thanks for Netflix). Apple has introduced Clip for iOS short videos (think about Snapchat and Douyin, plus its ability in music and messaging). Apple has AppleTV and AirPlay.
Apple TV App | Source: apple.com
There are just too many things to do in this space, broadly speaking.
And the competition is fierce. Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Youtube TV, Facebook/Instagram TV, Disney/Hulu, AT&T/HBO…
And the AR/VR future…
Let’s see.
Gaming
It might be something new. But Apple could introduce a monthly plan to play most iOS games freely (with some exceptions maybe). Just like what Tencent did with WeChat Read – subscriptions that can read all books on its app.
Let’s see what Steam will do… Steam has subscription-based products, although not a bundle.
A master bundle plan for Apple users in the future? Possible.
Since the new FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb was sworn in on May 11, 2017, the traditionally cumbersome regulatory body has shown an unprecedented embracement for novelty in treatments and beyond.
Novartis, Kymriah, first gene (transfer) therapy (first CAR-T) available in the United States
August 30, 2017
Biologics License Application (BLA) submitted on February 2, 2017
Approval basis: the safety and efficacy of Kymriah were demonstrated in one multicenter clinical trial of 63 pediatric and young adult patients with relapsed or refractory B-cell precursor ALL. The overall remission rate within three months of treatment was 83 percent. (FDA statement)
Pear Therapeutics, the Reset app, first mobile application to treat substance use disorders (SUD)
September 14, 2017
de novo premarket review pathway
Technology: the device delivers cognitive behavioral therapy to patients to teach the user skills that aid in the treatment of SUD and are intended to increase abstinence from substance abuse and increase retention in outpatient therapy programs. The system is intended to be used in conjunction with outpatient therapy and in addition to a contingency management system, a widely-used program for treating SUD that uses a series of incentives to reward patients for adherence to their treatment program.
Approval basis: a multi-site, unblinded 12-week clinical trial of 399 patients who received either standard treatment or standard treatment with the addition of a desktop-based version of Reset which could be accessed at the clinic or at home. The data showed a statistically significant increase in adherence to abstinence for the patients with alcohol, cocaine, marijuana and stimulant SUD in those who used Reset, 40.3 percent, compared to the patients who did not, 17.6 percent. The clinical trial did not demonstrate the effectiveness of using the Reset device in patients reporting opioids as their substance of abuse. (FDA statement)
reSET app | Source: New York Times
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, IMPACT test, first tumor-profiling laboratory-developed test to receive authorization through the FDA
November 15, 2017
de novo premarket review pathway
Technology: the IMPACT test uses next-generation sequencing (NGS) to rapidly identify the presence of mutations in 468 unique genes, as well as other molecular changes in the genomic makeup of a person’s tumor.
Approval basis: results indicated that the assay is highly accurate (greater than 99 percent) and capable of detecting a mutation at a frequency of approximately 5 percent (range of 2-5 percent). Additionally, detection of certain molecular changes (microsatellite instability) using the IMPACT test was concordant more than 92 percent of the time across multiple cancer types in 175 cases, when compared to traditional methods of detection.
Along with this authorization, the FDA is also establishing a Class II regulatory pathway for the review of other NGS-based tumor profiling tests for use in patients diagnosed with cancer. Class II designation allows these types of tests to be eligible to use the FDA’s 510(k) clearance process, either by submitting the application. (FDA statements)
Source: mskcc.org
Proteus Digital Health x Otsuka Pharma, Abilify MyCite, first drug in the U.S. with a digital ingestion tracking system
November 13, 2017
New Drug Application (NDA) dated and received June 26, 2015
Technology: the system works by sending a message from the pill’s sensor to a wearable patch. The patch transmits the information to a mobile application so that patients can track the ingestion of the medication on their smart phone. Patients can also permit their caregivers and physician to access the information through a web-based portal.
Approval basis: Abilify was first approved by the FDA in 2002 to treat schizophrenia. The ingestible sensor used in Abilify MyCite was first permitted for marketing by the FDA in 2012. (FDA statement)
Source: npr.org
Spark Therapeutics, Luxturna, first (directly administered) gene therapy approved in the U.S. to target a disease caused by mutations in a specific gene
December 19, 2017
Biologics License Application (BLA) dated April 26, 2017, and received May 16, 2017
Approval basis: The efficacy of LUXTURNA in the Phase 3 study was established based on the multi-luminance mobility test (MLMT) score change from baseline to one year. LUXTURNA Phase 3 clinical study results showed a statistically significant difference between the intervention group (n=21) and control participants (n=10) at one year in median bilateral MLMT score change (intervention minus control group difference of 2; p=0.001) and median first-treated eye MLMT score change (intervention minus control group difference of 2; p=0.003). (Spark press release)
Apple, the ECG app (with Apple Watch), first FDA clearance for retail ECG watch technology
September 11, 2018
De Novo clearance from the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, classified as Class II under the generic name electrocardiograph software for over-the-counter use
Technology: the ECG app determines the presence of atrial fibrillation (AFib) or sinus rhythm on a classifiable waveform
January 17, 2019 update: Alphabet’s life sciences unit Verily received 510(k) clearance from FDA as a Class II medical device for its on-demand ECG feature
Cohort expansion in December 2018 with a higher dose (4 mg), compared with previous cohorts 1 through 5 (0.1 to 2 mg dose)
UBX1967
January 2019, completed license agreement with Ascentage Pharma, granting Unity the exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights and non-exclusive manufacturing rights outside of Greater China (China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) for UBX1967 in all non-oncology indications. Inside Greater China, UNITY is obligated to commercialize UBX1967 through a joint venture with Ascentage Pharma. The UBX1967 License Agreement also grants UNITY the right to continue its preclinical development efforts with respect to another Ascentage Pharma-controlled Bcl-2 inhibitor compound that will serve as a back-up to UBX1967.
Per the 2016 pact, should Unity choose to license at least one more products, the Chinese biotech will gain a total of 1,333,338 shares
plans to file an IND application for UBX1967 in the second half of 2019
Calico – A previous google company
Founded in 2013, Calico started within Google (later Alphabet) and soon jump-started with huge fundings – a $1.5 billion initiative/collaboration in September 2014 with Abbvie. “AbbVie and Calico will each initially provide up to $250 million to fund the collaboration with the potential for both sides to contribute an additional $500 million.”
In June 2018, the collaboration was extended with another $1 billion. “AbbVie and Calico will each commit to contribute an additional $500 million to the collaboration.”
It was also cited that “since 2014, the collaboration between the two companies has produced more than two dozen early-stage programs addressing disease states across oncology and neuroscience and yielded new insights into the biology of aging.”
8 programs in its pipeline: two Phase II drugs, five in Phase I, and one preclinical (Endpoints reported in Aug. 2018); one of the Phase II drug in Androgenetic Alopecia has moved to Phase III (Jan. 2019)
co-founded in 2017 by David Sinclair and Tristan Edwards
8 Subsidiaries
Prana Biotechnology (an initial $7.5 million investment in Jan.2019)
Lua, HIPAA-compliant medical technology platform (acquired in Oct. 2018)
Senolytic Therapeutics acquired at a very early stage
Jumpstart Fertility acquired at a very early stage
the other four were formed in-house (Selphagy Tx, Spotlight Biosciences, Continuum Biosciences, Animal Biosciences)
Somehow, reminded me of Theranos… also an area that might not be reguated by FDA… (Ageing is not a disease by FDA’s definition) and some are backed by non-traditional biotech VC firms… But most seemed to be more experienced and sophisticated in biology and medicine (than Theranos’ average).
However, climate changes are not that simple and global temperature won’t be restored just by planting trees.
Clearly, we have omitted some “negative impacts” of trees since the beginning. More efforts are definitely needed to plant trees more effective.
One of the problems is “albedo effect”. Tree leaves absorb more sunlight than do other types of land cover. Forests can reduce Earth’s surface albedo, meaning that the planet reflects less incoming sunlight back into space, leading to warming. (Nature)
I think it is more or less similar to companies’ earnings projection. Before launching a new product, earnings projection looks great. But it is often overestimated. Other cost items will appear, leaving the product a thinner margin.
Trees are the same. Simply planting trees probably won’t give us the estimated benefits. While I believe the “net effect” is good, we do need more sophisticated understanding and solutions regarding trees.
In the short term, if government shutdowns don’t last very long, they have typically not left much of a mark on the economy… A longer shutdown is something we haven’t had. If we have an extended shutdown, and I do think that that would show up in the data pretty clearly,… we would have a less clear picture into the economy if it were to go on much longer.
Here is an incomplete list of effects in business…
FDA & Drug Approvals – Partial Government Shutdown’s Impact On FDA Drug Approvals (the FDA has suspended reviews of existing IND and BLA applications not covered by user fees, and is not reviewing applications for new drugs and biologics submitted during the shutdown period, except for emergency INDs and BLAs. The FDA is also not reviewing medical device applications submitted during the lapse period; and Gottlieb’s keynote address Tuesday was delivered via video conference from Washington)
SEC & Fin-tech companies – Fintechs Start To Feel The Pain From Government Shutdown (Online lenders & alternative asset underwriters couldn’t get SEC permission to repackage loans and sell them or via an IPO offering of the luxury vehicles e.g. Rally Rd)
TBB & Beer Labels and Permits –How The Government Shutdown Impacts Breweries (During the shutdown, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau will not approve labels or process permits)
Saudi Arabia’s financial situation has been closely linked to oil prices.
Saudi Arabia Oil and Non-oil revenues 2012 to 2016 | Source: Saudi Arabia Ministry of Finance statement about the national budget for 2017
The majority of the revenue is from oil exports. Its oil revenue has decreased more than 50% due to the oil price slump in 2014.
Oil comprises 30-40 percent of the real GDP of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi understood the need to diversify decades ago. It became more serious after the 2014 oil price shock. But that means more expenditure and efforts to push for the economic reform.
While expenditure kept increasing, Saudi government has quickly generated its deficits since 2014. Deficit in 2015 is at a similar level of its surplus in 2012 – a SAR 740 billion difference in 3 years. And debts are accumulated quickly.
Saudi has planned to eliminate its deficit by 2023, which could be easily done if oil price maintains.
In Dec 2018, Saudi released its budget of 2019, which includes an expenditure of over SAR 1 trillion and a deficit of SAR 131 billion.
While the sixth straight deficit is not something to worry about, the real question is to what level Saudi can diversify its economy and becomes a sustainable nation even without oil. (the contribution of non-oil revenues to total revenues up from 12% in 2014 to 32% in 2018)