Suntory And Whisky (1)

A History of Suntory’s Three Whisky Distilleries

The founder of Suntory, Shinjirō Torii (born in 1879), started with selling imported wine in Osaka in 1899.

Incorporation – the store became the Kotobukiya company in 1921.

In 1923, the Yamazaki Distillery was constructed – Japan’s first malt whisky distillery. It was built in the town called Yamazaki 山崎町 (now in Shisō 宍粟市, Hyōgo 兵库县), on the periphery of Kyoto. This region was formerly referred to as “Minaseno”, where one of the purest waters of Japan originates. Yamazaki Distillery is where the Katsura, Uji and Kizu rivers converge, providing a unique misty climate and one of Japan’s softest waters. The diversity of this region’s temperature and humidity creates ideal conditions for cask aging, known as the signature “Suntory Maturation”.

Source: whisky.suntory.com

Production began in 1924 and five years later it launched Japan’s first single-malt whisky Suntory Whisky Shirofuda (white label) in 1929.

Keizo Saji (Torii’s son) becomes 2nd president in 1961 (at age of 42); Shinjirō Torii passed away in 1962.

In 1963, Kotobukiya changed its name to “Suntory” from “Torysan”, taken from the name of the whisky it produces.

In the same year, Musashino Beer Factory (in Fuchū 府中市, Tokyo 东京都) began its production of the Suntory Beer.

In 1972, Keizo built Chita Distillery on the shores of Chita Peninsula (Chita 知多市, Aichi 爱知县).

Source: whisky.suntory.com

In 1973, Hakushu Distillery was established, in the Toribara locality of the former town of Hakushū 白州町 (now part of Hokuto 北杜市 in Yamanashi 山梨县), It is located in the foothills of Mt. Kaikomagatake.

Source: whisky.suntory.com

1980s – Distilleries Becoming Brands

Until the 1980s, whisky made at Yamazaki was bottled as Suntory blends. It began to market their distilleries in the way the Scottish market theirs, by branding the whisky for the distillery at which it is made. [Japanese Whisky Handbook by Gary Clark]

Saji pioneered the distillery’s move into single malt whisky in 1984, with the launch of Suntory Single Malt Whisky Yamazaki – the first time Yamazaki is used as the brand name. This was followed by Yamazaki 18 Years Old in 1992. [thespiritsbusiness]

In 1989, the 90th anniversary of the company’s founding, Suntory Hibiki was released. It is a blended whisky using whiskies from the three distilleries Yamazaki, Hakushu, and Chita.

Source: whisky.suntory.com

Shinichiro Torii becomes the 3rd president in 1990.

In 1994, Hakushu Single Malt Whisky is launched.

In 2003, the Yamazaki 12 Years single malt whisky became the first Japanese whisky to win the gold medal at the International Spirits Challenge, the most authoritative liquor competition in the world.

Source: whisky.suntory.com

A Python Generated Graph On Airlines’ Load Factors

Major airlines usually would post their monthly operation results on IR websites. While United Airlines and Southwest Airlines among other stopped reporting in 2019, Alaska and Delta are still doing so.

Load factor is a measure of the use of aircraft capacity that compares Revenue Passenger-Miles as a proportion of Available Seat-Miles.

Below is a three-part project that automatically downloads, summarizes and creates chart for 4 airlines’ load factor.


Download

Given certain years, the program will go through pre-defined links to search for monthly report urls and scrap relevant data based on the page structure. BeautifulSoup is used here.

Summary

The program uses file reading and writing to put four airlines’ data together while adjusting for missing data (aligning based on month)

Charting

The program converts csv to excel and draws the chart based on data. pandas and xlsxwriter are used here.


With some adjustments, the program should be able to scrape and virtualize other web-based standard reports.

 

 

China Drugstores: # Of Stores, Drugstore Chains, Share Of Top 10 Chains

The independent drugstores will find it harder to compete and the percentage of drugstore chain’s locations will steadily increase.

The “50% chain rate by 2020” target was set in 2016. In US and Japan, the percentage of chain stores is over 70%.

Source: www.sfdaic.org.cn/statistics

The market share in sales for top chains keeps increasing, as their sales grow faster than industry average.

Source: 中国药店,中信证券

* the total drug retail sales data is a little different from the previous post China Medicine End Market Sales (2018: 391.9 vs. 400.2 billion RMB, 2% higher in this report)

China Medicine End Market Sales Data

Data estimated by 米内网 (menet.com), which was formerly 中国医药经济信息网, created in 1997 by (formerly) CFDA Southern Research Institute.

According to the data, the overall end market sales grew 6.3% to 1713 billion yuan (or ~$250 billion) in 2018.

Retailer channels continues to grew at above-GDP rate (7.5% in 2018).

The data is not including sales in private hospitals/clinics, etc. The overall sales would be 2 trillion yuan for 2018 if included.

Online Higher Education (2) – MOOCs

Developed from universities

The history of massive open online course (MOOC) dated back to 2008 (by Stephen Downes and George Siemens entitled Connectivism and Connectivity Knowledge). The intention was to exploit the possibility for interactions between a wide variety of participants made possible by online tools so as to provide a richer learning environment than traditional tools would allow.

MOOCs with an emphasis on interactions and connectivity are now called cMOOCS.

In the fall of 2011, Stanford offered three courses for free online.  Peter Norvig and Sebastien Thrun offered their Introduction to Artificial Intelligence to an initial enrollment of over 160,000 students from around the world. Over 20,000 students completed the course. These xMOOCs focused less on interaction between students and more on exploiting the possibilities of reaching a massive audience.

Nowadays, through MOOCs, anyone with internet access can take some of the most famous courses taught by world-class professors for free, such as Harvard’s Justice. And courses on updated topics such as The Opioid Crisis in America by Harvard Medical School.

Transformed to independent organizations…

Seeing their success of MOOCs, Thrun founded a company called Udacity in February 2012 which began to develop and offer MOOCs for free. Udacity is funded by venture capital firm, Charles River Ventures, and $200,000 of Thrun’s personal money. In October 2012, the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz led the investment of another $15 million in Udacity.

Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller, two other Stanford CS professors started Coursera in April 2012 with three classes in fall 2011 from Stanford.

We will come back to these companies later. But let’s first take a look at a non-profit effort – edX.

edX

The establishment of edX was traced back to MIT’s effort – MITx platform. Announced in Dec 2011, MITx platform is led by Prof Anant Agarwal to offer MOOCs as a constituent program of MIT’s Office of Digital Learning.

Harvard joined forces with MIT in May 2012 when the two schools pooled $60 million in resources and renamed/spun-off the open platform component into edX, a non-profit organization. Open edX is the massively scalable learning software platform behind edX.

Since the origin of MOOCs, which are basically free for users, monetization methods are explored to make those platforms sustainable.

In Sep 2012, edX, partnering with Pearson, introduced “proctored exams” option, which would charge a small fee. edX learners have the option of taking a course final exam at one of over 450 Pearson VUE test centers.

Full fee-for-certificates models were introduced in 2013 following the industry trend.

Students can pay a fee to receive an ID-verified certificate upon successful completion of class requirements. Debuting in Fall 2013, three initial paid certificates would cost $25 for Stat2x: “Introduction to Statistics,” $50 for CS169x: “Software as a Service,” and $100 for 6x: “Circuits and Electronics.”

edX launched grouped-courses-based programs (XSeries) in Sep 2013, and MicroMasters programs in 2016, which may count as credits towards master degrees.

XSeries usually costs several hundred dollars with certificates and includes 3-5 courses. If taken separately, those courses usually can be access for free without certificates.

XSeries on edX | Source: edX
Xseries on edX | Source: edx

For MicroMasters, they are more linked with institutions and existing degrees.

As an example, the MicroMasters® Program in Supply Chain Management, can be used to apply to MIT’s SCM program which awards the Master of Engineering in Logistics (M.Eng. Logistics). The degree will also require another semester of on-campus study. The MicroMasters Program in SCM is also accepted in other universities worldwide.

The MicroMasters in SCM has five online courses. The cost to take each course is US$200. The cost to sit for the Comprehensive Final Exam is $200. The overall cost of the five course plus the final exam is US$1200. And the package can be purchased through edX with a 10% discount.


To be continued

Online Higher Education (1)

US Higher Education

According to The Condition of Education 2019 by National Center for Education Statistics (NCES):

  • Undergraduate Enrollment
    • In fall 2017, total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions was 16.76 million students.
    • Between 2000 and 2017, total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions increased by 27 percent (from 13.2 million to 16.8 million students).
    • By 2028, total undergraduate enrollment is projected to increase to 17.2 million students.
    • Percentage enrolled in any distance education course grew from 30.8% to 32.9%
    • Percentage enrolled exclusively in distance education grew from 12.8% to 13.3%
  • Post-baccalaureate Enrollment
    • In fall 2017, some 3.0 million students were enrolled in post-baccalaureate degree programs.
    • Between 2000 and 2017, total post-baccalaureate enrollment increased by 39 percent (from 2.2 million to 3.0 million students).
    • By 2028, post-baccalaureate enrollment is projected to increase to 3.1 million students.
    • Percentage enrolled in any distance education course grew from 32% to 34%
    • Percentage enrolled exclusively in distance education grew from 15% to 16%

NCES is located within the U.S. Department of Education and the Institute of Education Sciences. Distance education is a broad definition here but is an approximate to online education.

We can see that:

  1. Online education is one of the fastest growing forms of higher education.
  2. Around 1/3 of those enrollments have used online courses.
  3. Online degree programs have grown at least to 13-16% – as many programs will require on-campus immersions to some extent.

Another report by Wiley Education Services said by the 2020/21 school year, online programs are expected to account for 26% of all higher education market share.

It also lays out some headwinds & tailwinds.

Source: Wiley

To be continued

Opioids (4)

New Treatments

Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR-181)

  • NKTR-181 is a new chemical entity (NCE) designed to relive pain without inducing high levels of euphoria, minimising the likelihood of addiction and abuse. Due to the potential of NKTR-181 to address the urgent problem of prescription painkiller abuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted NKTR-181 a Fast Track designation for the treatment of moderate-to-severe chronic pain in May 2012.
  • March 20 2017, Nektar Therapeutics announced positive results from the SUMMIT-07 Phase III study testing the efficacy of NKTR-181 in the management of moderate-to-severe chronic lower back pain.
  • Human Abuse Potential of Oral NKTR-181 in Recreational Opioid Users: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Crossover Study
  • May 2019, spinning off into a new subsidiary, Inheris Biopharma
  • July 26 2019
    • FDA Delays Advisory Committee Hearing For NKTR-181
    • Jefferies’ David Steinberg says he now expects a 1-year delay for the entry of the drug and lop off 30% of its peak revenue — trimming that to $350 million.
  • Q3 earnings Call, Nov 6 & Jefferies London Healthcare Conference, Nov 20
    • FDA informed us that they can now reschedule product-specific advisory committee meetings. We now anticipate adcomm for NKTR-181 within the next several months
  • https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303473-nektar-therapeutics-nktr-ceo-howard-robin-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

Opioids (3)

Oxycontin & Purdue Pharma

Companies at the center of the opioid crisis include Purdue Pharma, which filed bankruptcy in September 2019.

Oxycontin is a modified-release formulation of oxycodone that was initially approved December 12, 1995 as 10 mg, 20 mg, and 40 mg tablets. An 80 mg tablet was approved January 6, 1997, followed by a 160 mg tablet on March 15, 2000, and 15 mg, 30 mg and 60 mg tablets on September 18, 2006. The Applicant (Purdue Pharma) ceased distribution of the 160 mg tablet in April of 2001.

Here is a history of FDA actions, from 1995 OxyContin approval. In 2001, OxyContin label was changed to add and strengthen warnings about the drug’s potential for misuse and abuse.

Abbott marketed OxyContin from 1996 through 2002 — a critical period directly following the approval of the drug by the US Food and Drug Administration.

With Abbott’s help, sales of OxyContin went from a mere $49 million in its first full year on the market to $1.6 billion in 2002. Over the life of the partnership, Purdue paid Abbott nearly a half-billion dollars, according to court records. From late 1996 through 2002, Abbott was paid about $374 million in commissions, according to those documents. Total sales of the drug during that time were nearly $5 billion. From 2003 through 2006, after Abbott had stopped selling OxyContin, it still received a residual payment of 6 percent of net sales, according to the West Virginia court records. It is unclear whether that pertained only to prescriptions written by the Abbott doctors. OxyContin sales during that time were nearly $6 billion.

In May 2007, the company and three of its current and former executives, pleaded guilty to charges of misleading the public about the drug’s risks; Purdue Pharma LP and the executives will pay a total of $634 million in fines. The company’s sales representatives misleading physicians about OxyContin, for instance, said that the drug produced no euphoric feelings for users and that users suffered no withdrawal symptoms when they stopped taking it.

In April 2010, FDA Approves New Formulation for OxyContin.

In 2010, OxyContin was reformulated and an abuse-deterrent version was introduced, leading to an increase in heroin use and subsequent rise in hepatitis C infection rates.

Between the reformulation in 2010 and 2015, there was a more than 40% drop in OxyContin misuse. During the same period, there were sharp jumps in both heroin-related mortality and hepatitis C infections, suggesting that that factors driving the rise in heroin deaths may also be driving the rise in hepatitis C infections, according to the researchers. Prior to the reformulation of OxyContin, hepatitis C infection rates were comparable between above- and below-median misuse states. However, following the reformulation in August 2010, the gap began to widen.

More recently, strategies to reduce the supply of prescription opioids have received scrutiny for the same reason: Opioid users with untreated addictions often turn to riskier illicit drugs.

March 29, 2017 – Trump signs an executive order calling for the establishment of the President’s Commission on Combating Drug Addiction and the Opioid Crisis. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is selected as the chairman of the group, with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as an adviser.

February 9, 2018 – A budget agreement signed by Trump authorizes $6 billion for opioid programs, with $3 billion allocated for 2018 and $3 billion allocated for 2019.

September 15, 2019 – Purdue files for bankruptcy as part of a $10 billion agreement to settle opioid lawsuits. According to a statement from the chair of Purdue’s board of directors, the money will be allocated to communities nationwide struggling to address the crisis.