While Amazon’s HQ2 in Spotlight, A Review on Facebook’s Real Estate Expansion

Crystal City near Washington was reported a few days ago by Bezos’ Washington Post as the choice for Amazon’s HQ2; only after 2 days, medias reported that it’s going to be split into two cities.

While the result will be announced soon, I think it is worth to review tech firms’ real estate moves by looking at Facebook, Google, etc. This post will focus on Facebook.


Facebook’s original office (since 2004) was in downtown Palo Alto on Emerson Street. It had 5 or 6 offices, one conference room, and a large common area.

Source: Daily Mail, NY Times, Redux, eyevine
Source: Business Insider

The following expansion in Palo Alto including leases on S. California Avenue and 1050 Page Mill Road.

Facebook moved to Menlo Park in 2011, the old campus of Sun (acquired by Oracle) – an 11 building, 57 acre, 1 million square foot property on the Bayfront Expressway. The purchase was a sale-leaseback with a 15 year long-term lease, with an option to purchase the campus after five years. There were no tax breaks included in the deal with Menlo Park. Facebook has also bought a 22 acre building connected to the campus by a tunnel. It was rumored that Facebook had been considering a leaseback of the property, with the purchase being assigned to a state pension fund. A 15 year leaseback was confirmed today, with the option to buy after 5 years. [TechCrunch]

Image result for facebook 1 hacker way oracle
Source: e-Discovery Team

Besides the move in Silicon Valley, in December 2010, it leased two floors with up to 150,000 square feet at 335 Madison Avenue in New York City, accommodating up to 600 people. It began construction on a $450 million data center in Forest City, North Carolina in 2010 after the first one announced earlier that year in Prineville, Oregon. Facebook also announced a 500-person office in Hyderabad, India, as the first office in mainland Asia, investing up to $150 million to the 50,000 square foot facility.

The number of employees start to explode since 2010.


In a 2013 report, FB has the project, called Anton Menlo, cost an estimated $120 million. It will sprawl over 10 acres of land off Highway 101 in Menlo Park, California. The 630,000 square-foot Facebook town will be walking and biking distance to Facebook’s headquarters. There will be 35 studios, 208 one-bedroom apartments, 139 two-bedroom apartments, and for top Facebook employees, there will be 12 three-bedroom apartments. [Business Insider]

Facebook West Campus
Source: Business Insider
And another one. That's Haven Avenue in front.
Source: Business Insider

 

In 2015, FB acquired a 56-acre industrial park immediately south of its current Menlo Park headquarters. The purchase of Prologis Inc.’s 21-building Menlo Science & Technology Park — which industry sources pegged at roughly $400 million.  [Silicon Valley Business Journal]


In 2016, Facebook goes from rent to own in Menlo Park in $202 million deal.

Image result for facebook 1 hacker way oracle
Source: Silicon Valley Business Journal

During 2017-2018, FB has opened offices and hired at a blistering pace, with enormous new leases in Sunnyvale, Mountain View and Fremont. This month, Facebook leased all the office space in San Francisco’s new 43-story Park Tower, vaulting it into the ranks of the largest tech tenants in San Francisco. Instagram, a major Facebook subsidiary, recently moved 200 employees into another San Francisco office tower. [San Francisco Chronicle]

In June 2018 reports, Facebook has leased an additional 754,000 square feet for offices in Fremont.


In 2017, FB said it will two more Prineville data centers, followed up by a report of $750 million in Sep. 2018, bringing total investments to $2 billion and total footprint to 3.2 million sqft. The expansion will take nearly two years and employ 1,500 construction workers at peak.

Facebook Data Center in Prineville, August 14, 2015 | Source: Thomas Boyd, oregonlive.com

 

Reference / Read More on…

China International Import Expo (CIIE) Opening Keynote

History

CIIE 2018 is actually the first of its kind so itself doesn’t have a rich “history” to tell. But there are two other exhibits in China worth noting – 1.  Canton Fair (广交会) in Guangdong & 2. Expo 2010 (2010 世博会) in Shanghai

Canton Fair was first held in 1957 Spring and has two sessions (spring session & autumn session) a year (62 years and 124 sessions so far) . Its official name was Chinese Export Commodities Fair, which highlights its origin and main function – exports. Its name was changed after the 100th session and has been China Import and Export Fair since then.

World Expo (or World’s fair, International Exposition, etc.), held every 5 years, is more of a showcase than an purposeful event. China won the bid to host Expo 2010 in 2002, one year after it won the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in 2001. CIIE is held in Shanghai.

What did Xi Say

I watched live keynote and took the following notes –

Part I – welcome & intro

  • President Xi welcomed the guests, briefly introduced the CIIE and highlighted that CIIE is the “first expo with import theme on a nation’s level”

Part II – importance of a global economy

  • President Xi used “irresistible trends” according to history to describe the inevitable future of openness, collaborations and global trades/economy. President Xi mentioned “the better world” several times
  • President Xi suggested three points using “every country” as subject
    • be open and open more room for collaboration
    • push for technology & science advancements, as the driver for human’s growth, also highlighting the word “together”
    • be more inclusive and let every country make progress; reduce inequalities globally

Part III – what China did and will do

  • China has made significant progress due to reform and opening, and will continue to do so on a greater scale
  • China will do the following
    • Increase import proactively: support the consumption upgrade; lower the tariffs; host CIIE annually
    • Lift limits on foreign investments in certain industries: finance & services (opening accordingly), agricultural & mining & manufacturing (deeper openness), telecom & education & healthcare & culture (accelerate); especially in education and healthcare, foreign ownership percentage will increase. In the future 15 years, good imported might exceed $30 trillion, services imported might exceed $10 trillion
    • Make business environment better: a combination of “pre-establishment national treatment” and “negative list” will be used; protection on IP is highlighted; an interesting “torchlight” metaphor also mentioned here – President Xi said every country should improve their business environment.
    • Pilot area on the next level: Hainan is highlighted here
    • Push for multilateral and bilateral collaborations: WTO reform is mentioned here; several regional collaboration framework is mentioned here

Part IV – be confident in China’s growth potential

  • President Xi mentioned a few numbers to support the argument that China is making solid progress this year
  • President Xi also talked about the difficulties/dilemma which should naturally occur as things always have two sides; but be confident about China’s economy, its resilience, strength and growth

Part V – Shanghai is great and has its unique positions

  • President Xi announced three decisions about Shanghai
    • expand free trade pilot zone
    • establish a market for tech/innovation in Shanghai Stock Exchange (科创板), supporting Shanghai’s financial role and tech/innovation center
    • make integrated Yangtze River Delta region a national level strategy

Part VI – closing

Takwaways

Shanghai’s role reinforced.

  • The center of import will shift from Guangdong to Shanghai. Export center might still remain in Canton Fair.
  • Domestic financial center strengthened; global financial firms (mostly have already had presence in HK and Beijing) should expand and locate in Shanghai (especially for the new board on SSE).
  • SSE will be part of the overall push to let tech companies IPO in domestic market (aimed to compete with SZSE, HKEX, Nasdaq); but this kind of effort has been made several times – ChiNext on SZSE, NEEQ (new three board), etc.. really need a series of efforts/reforms to vitalize the market
  • Currently major startups/tech companies are in Beijing or Shenzhen;  Shanghai will play a more important role.

Two Reflections from Physics on Investing

1.
What Physics says

Intense sub-planck undulations are seen as glimmers of distortions when zooming out, and are smoothed out on a higher level. Vice versa, seemingly flat world could be surprisingly dynamic if viewed in a sufficient close manner.

Figure 5.1 By sequentially magnifying a region of space, its ultramicroscopic properties can be probed | Source: The Elegant Universe by Brian Greene
In the investment world

Fluctuations in prices within a short time frame, however dramatic, could be (at least partially) smoothed out in a longer period of time. Vice versa, more details or clues of changes could possibly be found behind the scene even if prices stay the same in a week/month/year.

2.
What Physics says

While sub-planck variations are cancelling out with each other, some changes are constant and going in certain directions, although might be immaterial/unsensible on a daily basis – e.g. our universe is ever expanding.

Google results for "universe is ever expanding", Quora

In the investment world

Certain underlying trends (company, industry, economy, society, species, planet, etc.) are happening definitely in the long run. Trying to uncover those trends and making investments according to those should be an effective long term approach.

Some Underlying Physics of 5G Network

[personal notes]

    1. Friis Transmission Law
      {\displaystyle {\frac {P_{r}}{P_{t}}}=D_{t}D_{r}\left({\frac {\lambda }{4\pi d}}\right)^{2}}
    2. frequency is inversely proportional to wavelength
      \displaystyle v=f\lambda
    3. in the case of electromagnetic radiation, v is approximate 3×108 m/s

In ITU standards,

Extremely high frequency (EHF)  = 30 to 300 GHz in frequency = 10 to 1 mm in wavelength, so called millimeter-wave (mmW)

Ultra high frequency (UHF) = 300 MHz to 3 GHz in frequency =  1 to 0.1 m in wavelength

UHF is where our current mobile networks live on, with 4G mostly on 700 MHz, 1700-2100 MHz, 1900MHz and 2500-2700 MHz across the globe.

Under the Friis Transmission Law, higher frequency has much higher loss (attenuation) in free-space. For mmW, additional transmission losses occur when traveling through the atmosphere are absorbed by molecules of oxygen, water vapor and other gaseous atmospheric constituents.

Important absorption peaks occur at 24 GHz (for water vapor) and 60 GHz (for oxygen).

mmW attenuation | Source: T.S. Rappaport, NYU Wireless

As range of 5G signals are limited, small cells deployment, collaboration and integration will be essential. Current experiments found a 200-meter range doable.

Signal Outage (200 m Cell) in NYC using Adaptive Single Beam Antennas | Source: T.S. Rappaport, NYC Wireless

Appendix – Frequency Allocation

AT&T frequency table | Source: Wiki
Verizon frequency table | Source: Wiki
Frequency allocation in China | Source: spectrummonitoring.com

Read more on…

Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

On Oct 8, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. And a summary version for policymakers.

1.5°C was the target to strive for, agreed in 2015 Paris Agreement. (countries agreed to limit warming to below 2°C above preindustrial levels by 2100)

However, we are nowhere close.

Source: Climate Action Tracker

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes.

– Jim Skea of Imperial College London and an IPCC co-author

By “unprecedented changes,” Skea means essentially two things. First, the world needs to start cutting emissions. Instead in 2017, the world’s emissions a new record high. Second, we need to reduce those emissions very quickly. (Quartz)

Many researches have been done to analyze the impacts of a warming of 1.5°C and above.

「新栏目」5G 股权组合 One Share of 5G Future

[NOT for recommendation purposes; more for tracking purposes]

这件事已经想了有一阵子。昨天具体构思后,简单地做一个 5G 股权指数 (index),并按着指数做这么一个组合,以 $1000/股为起始面值,以 10 月 22 日作为开始日期。

组合很简易,局限于在美股交易的股票。一开始纳入了 7 只,比重有些 arbitrary(更像是根据我现有的持有比例来的)。

这个组合的第一阶段主要是 5G 基础或者说 enabler;等 2-3 年后将调整为侧重因 5G 而爆发的应用。

成分股中分为两类 – 核心 (Core) 和 其它 (Others),将主要跟踪核心成分股,目前 4 只(高通 康宁 Verizon AT&T)。

说一下主要成分股的主要的非 5G 因素。

高通 – 主要收入继续受到智能手机出货量压力和低价压力

康宁 – 主营业务之一的显示屏单价压力,LCD 需求增长放缓,新技术的份额扩大

Verizon 和 AT&T – 传统业务,媒体业务,尤其是 AT&T 的收购和债务

英特尔 – 服务器 data center 领域要接受 AMD 的挑战,再观察一下准备移到 Core

暂时有约 20% 的现金未分配留着添加调整。

 

留一个截图

Glass Age 玻璃时代

玻璃在生活中随处可见,是普通到平时不会去关注的材料。

最近,在 Corning 的启发下,发现玻璃作为一个时代来说真不为过。

从一个外行浅显的角度来看,我觉得玻璃时代最重要的核心就是玻璃对于光的把握。

最明显的一个角度就是作为显示屏,手机电视平板等等。

Corning 在 iPhone 生产之初就提供了屏幕,将防 scratch 的能力提升一个台阶(Jobs 演讲前的 iPhone original 屏幕被钥匙 scratch 了,后来有了 Corning 的合作从第一代到今天)

三星的曲面屏手机也是因为 Corning 的玻璃 – 2015 年发布的 Samsung S6 Edge 开始了两边双曲面 (dual edge) 系列。

Apple Watch / Fitbit 的屏幕,日常使用比手机更容易有屏幕撞击,但 Corning 的玻璃防划一绝。

再到各类 LCD,OLED 等等显示器。未来 5G 时代的信号需要更多的玻璃参与,包括背面;未来的汽车将需要具备更多显示屏式的玻璃…

Image result for automotive corning

另一个角度是对于光更精确的控制。在地球上,更多玻璃自带调节功能,将在能源的转化和节约中发挥重要作用。但更具有想象力的应该是以后的外星球移居,玻璃对于模拟地球太阳光环境至关重要。

Guardant Health’s Liquid Biopsy Outperforming Tissue NGS

上周 Guardant Health 在 JAMA 上的一篇文章,对比了 Guardant 360 (plasma-based NGS) 和 tissue-based NGS 在 NSCLC 中检测突变的能力以指导用药。

Clinical Implications of Plasma-Based Genotyping With the Delivery of Personalized Therapy in Metastatic Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer

Guardant 360 检测出 clinical relevant mutations 的患者数接近组织 NGS 的两倍(82 vs 47)。

在多检测出的 35 例样本中,有 8 例是同时进行 plasma- & tissue- NGS 后,液体活检真正比组织多检测出的部分,另外 27 例是由于组织活检无法进行 (insufficient quantity/quality of tissue DNA)。

突出了液体活检真正的好处之一 – 肺癌晚期 (NSCLC stage IV) 的液体活检无法实施的时候 (79/207, ~38%)。

这也是液体活检努力的方向 – 在更多癌种中不要被当作 2nd line 检测。

一朝风雨一代王:Sears, Walmart, Amazon (7)

Chapter 6 – Sears 第三王朝:no progress while others gainings
女权运动

Sears 第三王朝的零售业成为女权运动重点关注对象之一。

在美国强调男女平等的大潮中(尤其是 70 年代的努力在 80 年代被反复的倾向),Sears 由于其历史地位和社会影响,成为了其中广受关注的被指责的对象之一,包括消费者和雇员的不平等对待(More on  “1986 年 Sears 案”

IBM 合作 – Prodigy

1984 年,Sears 与 IBM 合作,尝试了 Prodigy 项目,一个集成了许多基础功能的网络入口,包括新闻、天气、邮件、购物、股票等等… 按月付费。

这是有意义的 pre-万维网 (World Wide Web) 尝试,但与今天的互联网形态几乎完全不一样…

这样有点走歪的经历,让 Sears 的线上购物尝试在正确(当今而言的正确)的路上又慢了半拍。

与二代目的战争,不进则退

一图流说明问题

三代目!Amazon

1994 年,如今的三代目 Amazon 在西雅图诞生。

尽管 Amazon 的收入还未超过二代目 Wal-Mart,但已于 2015 年在市值上超过,成为市值第一零售商,并未又回头的迹象。

此时的 Wal-Mart 在收入上被超过也只是早晚问题;正如上世纪七八十年代的 Sears。

Amazon 在零售上的尝试,可以看到很多 Sears 的影子:一项 -> N 项商品(书 和 手表),Amazon Basics 自产商品,支付&信用卡业务(Amazon Pay & Visa card)等等

其它

1993 年,Sears 停止了 100 多年前起家的 catalog 业务。

1993 -1995 年,Sears 从标志性的 Sears Tower 搬出。2009 年,Sears Tower 改名为 Willis Tower。

1995 年,Sears 将购物中心修建业务 Homart 卖给 General Growth Properties 。


之后的事,与 K-mart 合并,持续关店,与 Amazon 展开合作等等… 一直没能系统性地拯救 Sears。随着不断滑落的收入,连年亏损和巨额债务,Sears 今天 (10/15 周一) 正式申请破产保护。


(很巧合,当初想写 Sears 是因为去芝加哥的 Willis Tower 后越看 Sears 历史越有趣。写到这一系列第七篇,正好 Sears 申请破产;由于当初看的是 Sears 的历史,对于本世纪以后的进展以及今年的破产,以后有机会再写)

Read more…

http://www.searsarchives.com/history/history1980s.htm

https://www.investopedia.com/news/downfall-of-sears/

https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/economics-business-and-labor/businesses-and-occupations/roebuck-and-co-sears

一朝风雨一代王:Sears, Walmart, Amazon (6)

Chapter 5 – Sears 第三王朝:resilience from Financial arm and spin-offs 金融业务撑住局面 & 独立分拆上市
保险业务:第二王朝留下的优良遗产 – AllState 

Allstate 作为 Sears 旗下的汽车保险业务 (auto insurance),是 Wood 时期 (1931 年)栽下的树苗。

在汽车时代来临以及各州立法强制车险划分事故责任的时代背景下,Allstate 的业务蒸蒸日上。同时,依靠 Sears 迅速扩张的线下点,1934 年 Allstate 在芝加哥 Sears 店里开设第一家线下网点。

随着二战后新一轮汽车制造业新一轮爆发,Allstate 已经成为 Sears 重要利润来源。1950s,Allstate 陆续进入 fire insurance 和 life insurance 等其它业务。

1993 年,Sears 将 Allstate 分拆上市,出售约 20% 股份获得约 21 亿美元,成为当时最大一起 IPO。

消费信贷业务:从第一王朝传承到 Discovery

1911 年,Sears 开始让消费者基于 credit 购物。这是在 catalog 邮购时代的创新,直到 40 多年后美国才出现通用信用卡。

信用消费早就出现(比如基于 Sears 等 department store),之后经历了一段时间的摸索(比如 department store 的 charge coin -> charge plate -> plastic charge card,read more here),于 1950s 正式进入信用卡时代。

根据 Sears 公司历史记载,Sears 在 1953 年推出了 Sears credit card。

更为现在所熟知的是 Sears 在 1986 年正式推出的 Discover Card,与已经颇具规模的 Visa/MasterCard/American Express 网络展开竞争。背靠 Sears 当时还是美国最大的零售商,以及亲民的条款(无年费、较高信用额度、cashback等),Discover Card 迅速扩张。三年后已有 210 万(14%)美国家庭使用 Discover Card。

全面金融服务构想:Dean Witter Discover

在推出 Discover Card 前,Sears 于 1981 年 6 亿美元收购了当时美国第五大券商 Dean Witter Reynolds (由 Dean Witter 和 Reynolds 1978 年合并形成)。

1981 年,Sears 还收购了地产 broker Coldwell, Banker & Co.。

至此 Sears 的金融板块已经覆盖保险、券商、信用卡、地产中介四大业务。

1985 年 Sears 收购 Greenwood Trust Co.(2000 年改名 Discover Bank),作为随后 Discover Card 的发卡行;1986 年的 Discover Card 隶属于 Dean Witter 旗下。

1993 年,与 Allstate 类似,Sears 出售 20% 的 Dean Witter Discover 股份,分拆独立上市,将剩余 80% 分给 Sears 原股东。

1997 年,Dean Witter Discover 与 Morgan Stanley 合并,之后改名为 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter。2007 年,Discover 从 Morgan Stanley 独立出来,成为 Discover Financial Service。


80 年代 Sears 金融业务依托其强大的线下网络和客户渠道势不可挡,支撑着 Sears 四面楚歌的零售业。

1993 年的一系列举动,是 Sears 重新将重点放在零售老本行的尝试。然而,时代已经将 Sears 甩在身后。Sears 第三王朝难回巅峰,并且在二代目 Wal-Mart 同期的零售巨头和未来三代目 Amazon 的追逐中越落越远。

 

To be continued…