Don’t listen to what people say. Watch what they do.
MicroStrategy $MSTR purchased $10 billion BTC in two weeks in Nov 2024 at $93k.
When BTC is below $70k, they purchased $208 million in two weeks in Feb 2026.
$208 million is 2% of $10 billion fyi.
One caveat is that MSTR probably raise money more easily back in Nov 2024 and doesn’t have much capacity to buy now.
There are many theories out there and one of them is to compare with the 2021-2022 bitcoin crash.
From Nov 2021 to Jan 2022, bitcoin price crashed ~50%
From Apr 2022 to Jun 2022, bitcoin price crashed ~63%
Things are not the same this time – back then Fed was entering a rate hike cycle, Russia-Ukraine war/conflict broke out, and LUNA crashed.
Let’s say this time things are less severe. Fed is not going to raise interest rate anytime soon, although it may shrink balance sheet, plus major wars may be ending.
From Oct 2025 to Nov 2025, bitcoin price crashed ~33%
Let’s call the scaling ~2/3 vs 2021-22.
Then the second crash should be down ~42%.
In Jan 2026, bitcoin price was around $97,860.
To crash 42%, it would be ~$56,759.
We saw recent low at $60,074 on Feb 6, which is ~5% from our calculation above.
See previous posts on bitcoin
Solana’s price was up 86% in 2024 and down 34% in 2025.
Most of the pullback happened in q4 of 2025 which was around 40%.
At the end of Q3 2025, Solana price was about $208, still up compared with 2024 year end of $189.
Two most important drivers for Solana network and price are meme coins and stable coins.
For meme coin, it seems the frenzy has cooled down in 2025, using these indexes as reference: CoinDesk Meme Index or MarketVector Meme Coin Index.
On the stable coin side, adoption (stable coin on solana) has more than doubled from $5bn at end of 2024 to $13bn in Sep 2025 according to this, but no meaningful increase in 4q2025.
In mid October, DOJ seized ~$15bn, or 127,271 BTC, from Cambodia-based Prince Group / Chen Zhi. It’s the largest crypto seizure in DOJ history.
How many days it would take to liquidate these BTCs?
Daily volume looks to be ~300-500k BTC.
If limit to 3% of daily volume, that is ~12k BTC per day. Then it would take ~10-11 days if US gov were to sell off 127,271 BTC.
Previously, ~69k BTC was seized in November 2020 from a long-dormant Silk Road wallet.
US gov has been authorized to sell the entire stake in 2025.
Other BTC seizure and result:
One important movers in 2025 for BTC is the power-hungry data centers in the US.
Those data centers draw bitcoin miners away. Essentially, the power is so scarce that miners’ power supply is bought out by AI data center guys.
What happens to bitcoin price (and supply & demand)?
When miners drop/quit, bitcoin networks’s hash rate drop. Hash rate positively correlates with BTC price.
Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/hashrate-vs-price
Meanwhile, as AI eats power, energy prices are higher. Ceteris paribus, miners’ operating cost rises and thus they will need to sell more bitcoins into the market.
So Bitcoin price traded at over $50k today, surpassing $1 trillion market cap.
People are seeing the future where Bitcoin are welcomed or adopted in certain ways by major institutions.
– Tesla bought $1.5 billion Bitcoin recently.
– Twitter considers “how we might pay employees should they ask to be paid in bitcoin, how we might pay a vendor if they asked to be paid in bitcoin and whether we need to have bitcoin on our balance sheet”
– Banks like BNY Mellon are going to offer Bitcoin-based service.
While I share a similar view that it is becoming more mainstream, I think it also faces risks – people should remember that it’s not rare that governments “hated” gold occasionally in the past.
“One of his first moves as President was to declare a four-day bank holiday and suspend gold exports. Within days, the Emergency Banking Act was enforced that prohibited banks to pay out gold coins or bullion or gold certificates except under a government-issued license.
Just two weeks prior to abandoning the gold standard, he issued an executive order prohibiting hoarding of gold coins, bullion or gold certificates.” – Investopidia “When FDR Abandoned the Gold Standard”
As people talk about how Bitcoin can replace gold, the risk transfers to Bitcoin as well.
Fed’ or others’ ability to effectively print money will be reduced if goods and services are priced in Bitcoin and wages are paid in Bitcoin.
On Monday, Feb 8, Tesla announced it bough $1.5 billion bitcoin and would accept it as a payment method soon.
A few takeaways:
1/ There will be more companies using bitcoin to manage their cash, adding to the demand for it.
2/ Bitcoin as a payment method will be more mainstream. Now people not only can rely on selling it to the market, but maybe can buy a Model Y. The future question would be – what will the “economy” look like on Mars? I bet Bitcoin will be important.
Questions remain –
How Tesla is gonna price its cars? in fixed Bitcoin? that will cause a collision with USD, etc. as Bitcoin is volatile on a daily basis.