What’s Up In Beer

An shrinking industry with huge impacts

Source: Statista

Also – a report on beer that includes 2011-2016 beer consumption growth by country.

So ~200,000,000,000 liters divided by world population of 7,500,000,000 = 26.67 liters per person annually.

Say a can of beer is 330 ml – then each person is consuming ~80 cans per year.

That is a larger than I expected.

Although beer still needs to compete with wines, spirits and others for total alcohol consumption, it is still the no.1 source of alcohol (worldwide, but varies by country) – the impacts on everyday life are huge!

A better graphic illustration of alcohol consumption can be found here. A few screenshots are listed below.

Trends: to more premium options & to craft beer

Source: brewersassociation.org, R.S. Weinberg, Beer Marketer’s Insights, and the Brewers Association

In the US, craft beers is a growing sector while the overall beer sales is declining in 2018.

Source: brewersassociation.org

And the number of brewpubs is growing rapidly in recent years in the US.

Source: brewersassociation.org

And stories have been told, for example, Corono has been very popular and growing fast in China.

Source: AB InBev

On a conference call following the release of Q1 2018 results yesterday, Carlos Brito told analysts that AB InBev’s more expensive offerings are doing “very well” in China. He singled out Corona, which became the number one imported beer in China in the three-month period. The brand “[is] growing very rapidly”, Brito added. A-B InBev boasts around a 20% market share in the country, with strength coming from its premium and super-premium brands. [just-drinks.com]

And sales of Budweiser in China overtook those in America in the first half of 2018. [beveragedaily.com]

Corona’s parent company Modelo was acquired by AB InBev in 2012 for $20 billion at an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 15.4 times.

一个非主流消费观(2)

上一篇说到通过asset转换的方式,可以把消费的属性改变

对于体验类型的“消费”,也有相关的理论。


出去玩儿不是消费

这个逻辑的核心在于 – 一般来说,出去玩儿或者其它体验无法像买东西那样变成asset。一个小票或者票根,完全不能达到类似的效果。

解决的办法直到这个十年才算基本形成 – 照片/视频 + 社交媒体。

看上去十分简单和日常,但确实潜移默化地改变着人们的消费观念。一顿饭拍了照再发个朋友圈,就以另一种形式被保存了下来(不仅存在了朋友圈里,也存在了看到的人的印象里)。这可以说是一种intangible asset。

通常来说,食物通过外观(或者背景环境)也可以判断出价位,因此这样的intangible asset也有价值高低之分。标出餐厅名称或者地点可以更加透明地给intangible asset定价。

同时,拍得好不好可以很大程度地影响这个intangible asset的价值 – higher variation than in a bag。

所以近年来愈加流行的说法是没拍照等于没吃。某种程度上就是因为,如果只是吃,就是直接expense掉了。

养成了这样的习惯后会带来一个潜在的改变,即不愿意吃那种发不了社交媒体的。

吃只是体验型消费中的一类。

旅行会产生另一大类更高价值的intangible asset,也往往有更大variation,可能更容易更经常有大于成本的情况,直接带来equity上的gain。

另一个需要考虑的因素是社交媒体的广度。同样的旅行,follower更多的人发出来往往产生更高价值的intangible asset。由此可以带来的后续value,有些可以很直接(比如受邀去体验新开业酒店?)。

一个非主流的消费观

觉得有一套消费理念很有趣,用两篇blog来梳理一下


买东西 = 把钱换种方式存起来

买东西不等于传统意义上的消费,或者花掉。比如买一个包,那只是把cash变成了另一种asset。更好理解的是买个房子,假设全款100w买的,那就是cash减去100w,同时fixed asset加了一栏100w的房屋。

按此来推算,打八折买一个1w的包,cash减去8000块,asset的包那栏要加上1w,这是瞬间赚了2000!(equity部分净增加2000)。

这样计算的另一个问题是需要考虑deprecation,即折旧。用得快的化妆品即使先变成了asset也很快被减值。但类似包这样的asset,只要不扔,折旧是很小的。使用者可以在心里给asset安排一个使用寿命,如果每年使用次数很少,甚至不用,实际上每年几乎可以没有“减值”的感觉。一个实际使用1年的asset可以在使用者心中拉成10年。

这样的消费理念计价时不需要完全参考成本。事实上,现在越来越多的例子是asset有一个浮动的market price(非label price/price tag),当消费者逐渐接受,那asset value是要随时根据市场做调整。典型例子,yeezy和AJ。在这样的市场下,depreciation短期内远不如market price的波动明显,那鞋在market里涨价就是赚。

WeChat: More Than Messaging And Payment (2)

The previous post discussed around how WeChat has made life in China different in terms of eating in restaurants, buying bubble teas and more.

WeChat has also become the primary working station and personal cloud for many people.

One background – email is not that popular or useful in China. Many corporates give employees email accounts, but unlike in the US, email is just not a pervasive thing in China.

In the US, people use Gmail or Outlook and the cloud services provided by Google or Microsoft. In China, the equivalent of cloud storage is not Baidu Cloud, which provides the first 15GB free, but WeChat. People just send files as attachments in emails. And if he/she needs to CC other people, just send it in a group chat. It is a very smooth experience of sending files and discussing in a certain group of people.

The only inefficient part is probably editing files. But it is very common to use WeChat on PC so that files could be downloaded and edited. For most people, WeChat works perfect well to organize work. And it’s free.

So yes, it is just like Slack.

Meanwhile, however, files are not actually stored in or accessed through the cloud. They are local and taking up storage space in phones. So for Tencent, it is not managing an ever-expanding cloud usage and needs to think about charing fees; and for users, there is no limit in storage and they can use it as free forever, as long as they enough room in phone storages. I think it is very common for a person’s WeChat to take over 10G space in the phone.

In addition, it is more efficient to search through the files as they are grouped by groups. You go into a group chat’s history to find files, instead of searching the entire gmail for them.

On a side note, WeChat history has been very useful as a poof for nearly everything. A screenshot of chat history could be as powerful as a signed contract (not legally; but one can post it in moments or Weibo, and it seems more personal or embarrassing; so to avoid this, one usually takes a yes in WeChat seriously)

WeChat: More Than Messaging And Payment (1)

It’s time to talk about WeChat’s development after I have spent more than two month catching up in China.

This series will try to summarize several things WeChat has already been doing great and what it could possibly do in the foreseeable future.


First of all, restaurant mini-programs/official account.

The most significant feature to me is probably the ability to order on a digital menu via a QR code. All you need to do is to seat down and scan the code (with the information of table number usually) that is sticked on the table. One can totally make an order and wait for food without any help from the restaurant (saving lots of labor and waiting time). In addition, since everyone on this table can scan the code, they will share the same page and see each other’s ordering, which is extremely helpful as they are mostly shared plates.

What is more, usually it also makes users to follow the restaurant’s official account in WeChat in a very smooth way. Sometimes it’s mandatory. It is particularly beneficial for restaurant chains (and milk tea / coffee chains) that have multiple locations and marketing campaigns.

Then, depending on the frequency of customer’s visits, chains usually have their membership system in WeChat official accounts or mini-programs. That way, an WeChat account is essentially a Facebook or gmail account in the US. Complex reward and membership programs can be implemented in WeChat by chains, such as McDonald’s.

Besides ordering, WeChat provides a way for consumers to take a number to wait for a table before arriving at the restaurant.

The booking/waiting environment is a little different here in China. While booking a table at a specific time is common in the US, restaurants in China mostly only have a queue system. Most people will need to go to the restaurant first, take a number and wait for an hour or more in prime time. This is actually good for the shopping mall as people need to stay here longer, either generating other purchases or making the mall look more popular.

Also, on WeChat one can order ahead, which is especially helpful in beverage chains like Hey Tea. Hey Tea has long been “featuring” its super long line to order. As Starbucks in China just announced its order-ahead-and-pick-up feature “Fei Kuai” in a few cities this summer, its competitors have been able to do this at least one year earlier on WeChat.

Not to mention the payment step, which WeChat has been doing for years.

Crazy Valuation For Tea Chains

Two tea chains hot on the capital market in China – Hey Tea and Naixue Tea.

Valuation are said to be ¥8 billion (2019) and ¥6 billion (2018) respectively.

Each may have 200-250 stores. (Say Hey Tea 250 by end of 2018 and Naixue 200 by the end of 2018)

An average store say has a revenue run rate of 250k * 12 = ¥3 million / yr

Then revenue run rate is 750 million for Hey Tea and 600 million for Naixue.

With a revenue multiple at 10.0x, 600 * 10 = 6 billion for Naixue…

and 7.5 billion for Hey Tea…


Seems “good” in numbers… thanks to the support from Luckin Coffee..

Luckin has $4+ billion market cap and 20-25 revenue multiple (not run-rate)

 

 

Coffee Chains And Prices In China

While Starbucks is probably the No.1 coffee brand in China, its position has constantly been challenged. Luckin Coffee, (briefly covered in a previous post) is cutting into the mass market with lower pricing.

Many people are eyeing on China’s growing coffee market, which will be huge and many are betting on the growth in average coffee consumption.

On the global capital market, Starbucks’ China push and Blue Bottle’s exciting/interesting movements (Jun 2015 $70 million series C; Sep 2017 acquired by Nestle, $425 million for ~68%) may as well push Chinese counter-parties to think about aggressive expansion or building boutique brands.

Listed here are 3 shops I visited recently. Will add more during the summer.

Costa, from UK

Costa Coffee is eyeing 1,200 stores in China by 2022, a big increase from more than 400 at the end of 2017.

Costa stores | Source: Business Insider

Costa is in direct competition with Starbucks, pricing its coffee at exactly the same level – grande latte @ ¥32.

% arabica, from Japan

% arabica @ the bund, Shanghai | Source: arabica.coffee

Started in 2014 in Kyoto, Japan, % arabica is a young brand. It opened the first store in China in Shanghai in Feb 2018 in a trendy (网红) way. It already has opened 4 store in Shanghai alone, including a roastery at the Bund (7 in mainland China and 4 in Hong Kong as of May 2019).

% arabica is a premium brand with latte price starting @ ¥35 (but in short size), @ ¥45 for a tall size (or a little bigger than tall.. cant’ tell exactly), @ ¥40 for tall ice latte.

S.Engine, from Shanghai

A trendy (网红) brand, 鹰集 is a little pricer than Starbucks, with its flagship store opened in January 2017 at Xintiandi, Shanghai.

While its office website only lists 3 locations right now, its has 6 places listed on Meituan in Shanghai. Growing very fast.

S.Engine on Meituan | Source: meituan.com

Pricing is in line with (or a little lower than) boutique coffee shops. Americano @ ¥28 and latte @ ¥36 (¥38 for ice latte). There is only one size (tall); a fair amount of cups are served in reusable cups.