California Republic And (Currently) A Democratic State

Recently I saw the state flag a few times with the bear and the name of “California Republic”. While the name may have new meanings now, it also represents its history.

Originally part of Mexico, the 1846 revolt declared independence of California Republic with its capital in Sonoma. Only lasted for 25 days, the republic later became part of the United States.

Despite the republic origin, California has been a strong democratic state since 1992.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Source: Los Angeles Times

It appears to me tho, that the “republic” or “democratic” name itself won’t convey much meaning going forward. Sure a party will start with a name that is closely related a specific opinion. After decades or hundreds of years, most of the founding ideas will fade away; it might be okay to just call them “party A” and “party B”.

Ultimately, most ordinary voters only care about if their feel good or not. And most of that feeling is correlated with economic status. So the flipping of the economy will change the control between parties.

California has been booming for years with the help from semiconductors, PCs, internet, etc. As long as tech industry remains strong, so does California and it will continue be won by the current party.

Media In The New Age

It is not necessarily something new/surprising – traditional media are PAYING tech companies to be promoted.

Source: my Twitter on 11/8

I found this really ironic in the sense that originally most media should BE PAID to promote something. The reach to readers is built in the gene of media and defines one of the two pillars of media business model.

Tech companies like Twitter/Toutiao, are not just selling promotions/ads. To me, they are more like real estate developers. They are building towns/offices for people to live/work and renting out the places such as tops of buildings… What’s more, they are doing this everyday and creating places everyday with little physical limits and marginal efforts.

When the town is getting crowded, it becomes Manhattan, where real estates are pricey. Those who were invited as “Official Accounts” now needs to pay more money to be seen. The tech companies can run those auctions which no one questions their eligibility (and why Manhattan is in New York).

Yes We Humans Are Vulnerable as Always

Coincidentally, a few incidences involving people’s death/missing happened during the last weekend and became headlines around the world.

In the US, massive shoot developed in a Pittsburgh synagogue, leading to at least 11 deaths.

In Chongqing, China, a bus ran off a bridge into deep water of Yangtze River with an estimate of 15 on board.

In Indonesia, a Boeing-737 MAX with Lion Air crashed into the sea after took off with 189 people on the plane and 0 survivor has been found so far.

[May those taken from us rest in peace]

While there are different reasons (or direct causes) behind these tragedies, they all reminded us of how vulnerable our species is. Technology and society advancements have their own ways of going wrong.

Our ancestors don’t have much direct advantages to survive their world; yet we have conquered and shaped our planet to an ever increasing degree over our history. We can protect ourselves from stronger animals which would otherwise make us their food; we can fight destructive fires which would otherwise burn our settlements; we can cure those deadly pandemics which would otherwise wipe out half of a continent’s population or even an entire regional population…

However, things made to combat threats could go wild and we can’t resist.

The tools we created and the capabilities we built into them dwarf our physical/natural abilities. We are not very much improved genetically as a species over the last 1 million years (and not very much different from genus Pan as genus Home).

Naturally we can’t survive a gunshot and can’t find a way out under deep water from a closed room (e.g. bus, plane).

Although life expectancy has gone from 20 to 40 to 80 and may go to 160 in the future, we are still humans.

Sometimes we just need to forget all those achievements and just be human.

Life is valuable because it is limited. May everyone of us enjoy it.

Asymmetrical Effort

最近愈发觉得自己在研究公司中有一个bias – 对于表现不好的公司花很多时间精力,表现好的就不怎么管了

这里的表现体现在股价。

具体来说 1. 开始投资的时候,是会花很多精力;如果近期有headwind会花更多effort。 2. 买了,跌了,这一类的公司占据很多时间精力 3. 买了,涨了,往往就不太花时间跟踪,反而错过新的机会或者对推出时机不敏感

这就是标题中 asymmetrical…

这其实不仅体现在研究公司中。比如以前上学的时候,熟悉的科目不怎么复习,复习花在学得不稳的科目上。

这或许是一个普遍的不对称性?所谓打江山易,守江山难也有这个因素?危机的时候人可能表现出超乎平常的能力?

这应该是个生物学+心理学共同解释的现象。