A widely cited study covering World Cups from 1950–2006 found that the U.S. market lost an average 2.58% during the tournament’s defined “effect period,” versus an average gain of 1.21% over comparable-length periods outside World Cups.
The 2022 Crash: During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the global stock market fell by 4.6% and the S&P 500 dropped by 5.4%.
Why might it happen?
1. Losses hurt more than victories help.
Fans become significantly more pessimistic after elimination, but investors do not become equivalently optimistic after an ordinary victory. During the knockout stage, every match creates one disappointed country, so the negative mood effects may accumulate globally.
2. Investors are distracted.
When a national team is playing, investors watch football instead of markets. Research covering 15 countries during the 2010 and 2014 World Cups found that trading volume could fall by as much as 48% during national-team matches. Domestic markets also temporarily reacted less to global-market news.
The current 2026 World Cup looks fine so far, although Nasdaq is weak in recent days.
The weakness started when US restarted strike on Iran over the Jul 11-12 weekend, after US team’s exit on Jul 6 (defeated by Belgium).
| Index | June 10 | July 17 | World Cup return |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,266.99 | 7,457.69 | +2.62% |
| Dow Jones | 49,918.78 | 52,146.42 | +4.46% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,169.50 | 25,520.24 | +1.39% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,835.46 | 2,962.22 | +4.47% |