Tesla Shanghai Version Started To Receive Reservation!

Tesla announced on Weibo that customers can now book their Model 3 China version online or in store.

Source: Tesla Weibo

Prices start at ¥355,800. The first delivery will be in 2020 Q1. Before the Shanghai version, Tesla Model 3 was sold in China for more than ¥439,900.

Customers need to put a deposit of ¥20,000, which can be paid in AliPay or WeChat.

Source: tesla.cn

The pickup availability is shown below.

Source: tesla.cn

Three models of Model 3 will be sold in China.

「What’s News In China」

President Xi said the country needs to “seize the opportunity” afforded by blockchain technology. His speech also called for the creation of “Blockchain+,” a platform alluding to personal development such as education, employment and food and medicinal safety, among other basic needs. Since a 2017 decision by the People’s Bank of China, cryptocurrencies are banned in the country, although a digital renminbi is being developed by the central bank and likely to launch soon. // coindesk | TechCrunch


NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES)’s e-learning unit, Youdao (有道) made its debut on NYSE on Friday Oct 25, listed under the symbol “DAO”. Youdao priced its IPO shares at $17 per ADS, raising ~$95.2 million. The company is also raising another $125 million through the private placement of 7.35 million ordinary shares, to funds managed by Orbis Investment Management Ltd., for a total raise of $220.2 million. Founded in 2006, Youdao provides online dictionaries, online classrooms and language courses, with 100 million monthly average users in China in the first half of 2019. // marketwatch | 21jingji


Starbucks announced the new addition of Bar Mixato to its Starbucks Reserve Roastery in Shanghai. It features a full bar menu, which includes the global debut of 11 innovative coffee- and tea-based cocktails specially created and available only at the Shanghai Roastery. // Starbucks

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.,Ltd. IPO Filing

The most lucrative segment of China’s high speed railway system filed it IPO application with CSRC.

It announced its preparation of IPO back in February.

The 1,318km railway began construction in April 2008 and started operation in June 2011.

2019 (Jan – Sep) 2018 2017 2016
Passenger Revenue (‘0000 ¥) 1,204,204.99 1,579,069.55 1,556,737.53 1,418,926.44
PassengerMiles (billion km) 25.86 34.46 34.24 31.83
Unit Price (¥ per km) 0.466 0.458 0.455 0.446
Occupancy % 79.91% 81.64% 80.18% 73.38%

Unit price is consistent with experiences, e.g. Nanjing South to Shanghai Hongqiao is ~295km and costs ¥134.5, which translates to ¥0.456 per km in unit price.

For occupancy rate, there is some seasonality fluctuation (Jan – Sep vs. Oct – Dec).

Total revenue breakdown:

Income Statement:

Profitability is insane.

Total Revenue (‘0000) 2,500,191.65 3,115,842.16 2,955,540.94 2,625,761.72
COGS (‘0000) 1,185,571.50 1,629,918.30 1,593,526.42 1,514,366.73
Gross Margin 53% 48% 46% 42%
Net Income (‘0000) 1,269,335.26 1,366,419.72 1,207,143.13 902,434.75
NI Margin 51% 44% 41% 34%

Creating Value And Capture 95% Of It

By just looking at the title, I don’t even know what I am trying to say.

But here is an example. We are know targeted ads (by Facebook or others). By purchasing ads for a more precisely defined population, sellers are wasting less time for other audience. The overall efficiency of transmitting messages (ads in this case) increases. This is value creation.

However, as Facebook gaining more insights and pricing power, it can charge higher prices for more effective ads to the extend that targeted ads are just a little better than traditional (mass) ads. I put 95% in the title but that is just to give a feeling. The sellers will be better off but the marketing costs will continue to increase and in the end they will find it very hard to earn a lucrative net profit margin.

This might be the ultimate price discrimination and Facebook is capturing nearly all the value down the chain.

Some time in the future, we will find old-school ways are much more friendly.

Biogen’s Amyloid-beta Project Back In The Game, Planning To Submit BLA Early 2020

Earlier this year, Biogen discontinued the Phase III trial of aducanumab in March 2019 following a futility analysis. Biogen’s stock tanked more than 29 percent from $320.59/shr,  closing at $226.88/shr on March 21.

Expectations had been high for aducanumab as Goldman Sachs analysts had projected at one time that sales of the drug could reach $12 billion.

When Biogen said on October 22 that it is going to file its amyloid-beta MAb aducanumab for US approval based on discussions with the FDA, its share price reached $318.00 during the day and closed at $281.87/shr (up more than 26%).

What has changed

Biogen said that, far from throwing in the towel on aducanumab, it has been busy. A “type C” meeting with the US FDA took place in June to discuss a possible path forward; then, just yesterday, there was a second such meeting, at which a new analysis was discussed [EvaluatePharma]

While the issues are complex the group’s new analysis points to a single, simple fact, which has been aired before: if an amyloid-beta MAb can be dosed high enough, for long enough, without insurmountable toxicities, then it should show some effect in a sufficiently early Alzheimer’s population.

An amendment in March 2017 allowed ApoE4 carriers who had earlier been on either 6mg/kg or 10mg/kg to be titrated up to 10mg/kg. This saw more patients overall exposed to 10mg/kg, but crucially the December 2018 cutoff was too early for this effect to manifest itself.

Surprise! Biogen’s longer-term analysis of aducanumab
  Low dose High dose
Emerge Engage Emerge Engage
n=543 n=547 n=547 n=555
CDR-SB (original primary endpoint)
Reduction vs placebo -14% -12% -23% +2%
Nominal p value 0.117 0.236 0.010 0.825
Adas-Cog (one of 3 secondary endpoints)
Reduction vs placebo -14% -11% -27% -12%
Nominal p value 0.167 0.248 0.010 0.245
Source: Biogen presentation, EvaluatePharma

Read more on Biogen’s Aducanumab Update

Question Remained

From FierceBiotech:

Biogen saw a divergence between the data generated in the two studies at the time of the futility analysis but was unable to explain the finding. Now, Biogen thinks the greater exposure to the high dose in EMERGE is the primary driver of the divergence. Biogen pointed to the better results seen in a subset of ENGAGE patients it said were exposed to sufficient high-dose aducanumab to make its case.

As the trials were identically designed, Biogen needs a way to explain why patients in EMERGE had greater exposure to high-dose aducanumab. Biogen’s explanation centers on amendments it made to the protocol. The hypothesis is that the timing of enrollment in the trials meant the amendments had different effects in each study. Biogen knew that was possible but not that it could warp the data to the extent it now claims.

And the big question is what the FDA will make of Biogen’s case.

Umer Raffat, an analyst at the investment bank Evercore/ISI, first asked if the departure of Michael Ehlers, Biogen’s previous research and development chief, had anything to do with disagreements over the Alzheimer’s dataset. Vounatsos, the Biogen CEO, said that Ehlers’ departure was personal, implying that disagreement over data did not play a role. [STAT]

Additional, Raffat noted that the patients who did not complete seemed to show benefit as well. He called this “confusing” in a note to investors following the conversation.

CB Insights: 14 Tech Trends 2019

  1. The hyper-personalization of everything
  2. The smart home targets the senior citizen market
  3. Malls are out. Retail moments are in.
  4. Maps become a layer for all kinds of real-world data
  5. Last-mile delivery gets automated
  6. Tech comes for your sleep
  7. Data becomes a hot-button geopolitical issue
  8. Smart buildings maximize comfort, wellness, and efficiency
  9. Buses and logistics providers go green
  10. China sets the bar for social network innovation
  11. Electric vehicle makers expand into lifestyle products and services
  12. Tech apprenticeships grow in popularity
  13. Digital swag makes big money
  14. The new healthcare clinic is your home

Full report is here.

「What’s News In China」

NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES)’s e-learning unit, Youdao (有道) reduced its fundraising target to $116 million from $300 million IPO on October 15. Founded in 2006, Youdao provides online dictionaries, online classrooms and language courses, with 100 million monthly average users in China in the first half of 2019. The company set a price range of $15 to $18 for its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) and will be listed under the symbol “DAO”. // reuters | SEC


TikTok (by Bytedance) launched an education program in India on October 17, as the popular short-video app looks to expand its offering and assuage local authority in one of its biggest markets. TikTok has been working with Indian partners in the edtech sector ahead of the campaign launch.  TikTok claims to have 200 million users in India, of which 120 million are active every month. // TechCrunch | FT


6th World Internet Conference (or “Wuzhen Summit”) opened in China’s Zhejiang Province (10/20-22). Executives from major tech companies from home and abroad such as Microsoft, Qualcomm, Alibaba Group and Huawei attended the conference. // xinhua | scmp

「News of the Week」China Q3 GDP Growth Rate: 6.0%

WSJ – China’s economy grew 6% in the third quarter, landing right on the central government’s full-year baseline target for gross domestic product

国家统计局 National Bureau of Statistics of China  – 2019年三季度国内生产总值(GDP)初步核算结果

The percentage growth decrease is high anticipated. The expected value was at 6.1%.

Dots to connect:

  • IMF’s other forecasts
    • cut China’s growth forecast to 6.1% from 6.2% for 2019, and 5.8% for 2020
    • cut India’s growth forecast to 6.1% from 7% for 2019, and 7% in 2020
    • Forecasts for the U.S. were cut by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4% annual growth in 2019; euro-area forecasts were cut 0.1 point to 1.2%
    • Global
      • July version: Global growth remains subdued. Global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020
      • October version: Global growth is expected to slow to 3 percent this year, picking up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April)
  • China’s monetary policies and debt levels.