An introductory estimation of use of EV battery materials and reserves on earth.
Conclusion in the video may not be right but is useful as basic assumptions.
Author: admin
Trees and Global Warming
Planting trees seems to be one of the most common and economic solution to reduce CO2 and is well-recognized around the globe. It is also one of the “negative-emissions technologies” to help meet Paris Agreement targets – afforestation and reforestation.
However, climate changes are not that simple and global temperature won’t be restored just by planting trees.
Clearly, we have omitted some “negative impacts” of trees since the beginning. More efforts are definitely needed to plant trees more effective.
One of the problems is “albedo effect”. Tree leaves absorb more sunlight than do other types of land cover. Forests can reduce Earth’s surface albedo, meaning that the planet reflects less incoming sunlight back into space, leading to warming. (Nature)
Also, trees themselves are emitting CH4 and N2O, greenhouse gases.
The question, raised on New York Times with Prof. Unger at Yale in 2014, had previously attracted lots of debates.
I think it is more or less similar to companies’ earnings projection. Before launching a new product, earnings projection looks great. But it is often overestimated. Other cost items will appear, leaving the product a thinner margin.
Trees are the same. Simply planting trees probably won’t give us the estimated benefits. While I believe the “net effect” is good, we do need more sophisticated understanding and solutions regarding trees.
A Note on 5G & Its Slicing as a Real Estate Play
【推荐读物】Recommending this insightful and objective article by Benedict Evans from a16z – 5G: if you build it, we will fill it.
Below is an excerpt of his comments on slicing…
One of the cooler features of 5G is that it lets you split out dedicated capacity for particular use cases – so-called ‘network slicing’. Today (to simplify hugely), although network operators try to do traffic management, all traffic in the cell is fundamentally using the same capacity. 5G lets you create dedicated private capacity in the radios network with specific characteristics. So, you could sell a truck operator dedicated capacity on the two miles between a specific freeway exit and a specific warehouse. Or, you could offer an IoT operator (or alarm company) much lower bandwidth but over a wider area.
US Government Shutdown – an Incomplete List of Direct Effects in Business
On Jan 10, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented at the Economic Club about government shutdown…
In the short term, if government shutdowns don’t last very long, they have typically not left much of a mark on the economy… A longer shutdown is something we haven’t had. If we have an extended shutdown, and I do think that that would show up in the data pretty clearly,… we would have a less clear picture into the economy if it were to go on much longer.
Here is an incomplete list of effects in business…
- SEC & IPO – Could the Government Shutdown Affect IPOs? by Knowledge@Wharton (delayed much-anticipated tech offerings such as Uber and Lyft… but market conditions have been “very difficult” for IPOs anyway…)
- FDA & Drug Approvals – Partial Government Shutdown’s Impact On FDA Drug Approvals (the FDA has suspended reviews of existing IND and BLA applications not covered by user fees, and is not reviewing applications for new drugs and biologics submitted during the shutdown period, except for emergency INDs and BLAs. The FDA is also not reviewing medical device applications submitted during the lapse period; and Gottlieb’s keynote address Tuesday was delivered via video conference from Washington)
- FAA & TSA & Airports – Travelers Feel Effects of Partial U.S. Government Shutdown as Airports Struggle
- SBA & Small Business Loans – Over 300 small-business loans a day aren’t happening because of the shutdown
- SEC & Fin-tech companies – Fintechs Start To Feel The Pain From Government Shutdown (Online lenders & alternative asset underwriters couldn’t get SEC permission to repackage loans and sell them or via an IPO offering of the luxury vehicles e.g. Rally Rd)
- TBB & Beer Labels and Permits –How The Government Shutdown Impacts Breweries (During the shutdown, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau will not approve labels or process permits)
Saudi Arabia: Surplus to Deficits, Turnaround, Diversification
Saudi Arabia’s financial situation has been closely linked to oil prices.
The majority of the revenue is from oil exports. Its oil revenue has decreased more than 50% due to the oil price slump in 2014.
Oil comprises 30-40 percent of the real GDP of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi understood the need to diversify decades ago. It became more serious after the 2014 oil price shock. But that means more expenditure and efforts to push for the economic reform.
A “Vision 2030” was announced in 2016. (original English copy)
While expenditure kept increasing, Saudi government has quickly generated its deficits since 2014. Deficit in 2015 is at a similar level of its surplus in 2012 – a SAR 740 billion difference in 3 years. And debts are accumulated quickly.
Saudi has planned to eliminate its deficit by 2023, which could be easily done if oil price maintains.
In Dec 2018, Saudi released its budget of 2019, which includes an expenditure of over SAR 1 trillion and a deficit of SAR 131 billion.
While the sixth straight deficit is not something to worry about, the real question is to what level Saudi can diversify its economy and becomes a sustainable nation even without oil. (the contribution of non-oil revenues to total revenues up from 12% in 2014 to 32% in 2018)
Lowered iPhone Sales Forecast and More
Since Apple announced that it would stop reporting the iPhone unit sales number during Q3 earnings call, things have not become easier.
iPhone Ban in China
The fight between Qualcomm and Apple has led to a sales ban on older iPhone models in China, ordered from a Chinese court (福州市中级人民法院). The case was filed against Apple in China in late 2017, saying the iPhone maker infringed patents on features related to resizing photographs and managing apps on a touch screen.
Apple said it planned a software update that would solve the issue; also, the ban would likely take time to enforce, according to Reuters.
iPhone Ban in German
In German, Apple will be pulling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 models from its stores there following a win for Qualcomm in the District Court of Munich, which ruled that Apple’s devices were infringing on Qualcomm’s intellectual property related to power savings in smartphones. (The Verge)
Qualcomm said on Thursday (Jan.3) that it posted security bonds of 1.34 billion euros ($1.52 billion) to enforce the German court order.
Apple Outlook Cut Citing Weaker iPhone Demands in China
On Jan 2, a letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook to investors said sales will be about $84 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 29, down from earlier estimates of $89 billion to $93 billion. Apple posted sales of $88.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter a year earlier, so the new forecast would mean Apple is reporting a holiday quarter slowdown for the first time since Cook became CEO in 2011. (Bloomberg)
Apple shares fell 10% to $142.19, the biggest drop in almost six years, the next day.
In the letter, Cook said Apple’s gross margin will be approximately 38%. (also discussed in a previous post about Apple’s pricing strategy)
Chinese Phone Makers Gaining In Zero-growth Market
Although 2018 Q4 numbers are not yet available, Q3 numbers tell the same story. According to IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker on Nov 1.
| Company | 3Q18 Shipment Volumes (millions) | 3Q18 Market Share | 3Q17 Shipment Volumes (millions) | 3Q17 Market Share | 3Q18/3Q17 Change |
| Samsung | 72.2 | 20.3% | 83.3 | 22.1% | -13.4% |
| Huawei | 52.0 | 14.6% | 39.1 | 10.4% | 32.9% |
| Apple | 46.9 | 13.2% | 46.7 | 12.4% | 0.5% |
| Xiaomi | 34.3 | 9.7% | 28.3 | 7.5% | 21.2% |
| OPPO | 29.9 | 8.4% | 30.6 | 8.1% | -2.1% |
| Others | 119.9 | 33.8% | 149.8 | 39.6% | -19.9% |
| Total | 355.2 | 100.0% | 377.8 | 100.0% | -6.0% |
And in Gartner’s December report…
| Vendor | 3Q18 Units (thousands) | 3Q18 Market Share (%) | 3Q17 Units (thousands) | 3Q17 Market Share (%) |
| Samsung | 73,360.1 | 18.9 | 85,605.3 | 22.3 |
| Huawei | 52,218.4 | 13.4 | 36,501.8 | 9.5 |
| Apple | 45,746.6 | 11.8 | 45,441.9 | 11.8 |
| Xiaomi | 33,219.7 | 8.5 | 26,853.2 | 7.0 |
| OPPO | 30,563.4 | 7.9 | 29,449.2 | 7.7 |
| Others | 153,960.0 | 39.6 | 159,742.0 | 41.6 |
| Total | 389,068.2 | 100.0 | 383,593.4 | 100.0 |
What is good for Apple…
From Cook’s letter, we know Apple’s wearables sales grew by almost 50% year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers.
Only 5% of Earth Land Unmodified by Human
How much of the terrestrial lands have been modified by human beings?
A recent study published on Global Change Biology revealed a far lower estimate of 5% than the previous 19%.
Thirteen human factors in 6 categories are considered in calculation.
- human settlement (population density and built‐up areas)
- agriculture (cropland and livestock)
- transportation (major roads, minor roads, two tracks, and railroads)
- mining
- energy production (oil wells and wind turbines)
- electrical infrastructure (powerlines and nighttime lights)
Meanwhile, nearly 50% of the lands are considered with low human modification.
So there is a contrast of how little of the land (5%) we haven’t touched and how much of the land we haven barely explored (44%)
Loxo and Pan-Cancer Treatments
In the first week of 2019, besides the BMS-Celgene merger, the $8 billion acquisition of Loxo Oncology by Eli Lilly is the largest deal announced.
For a premium of 68%, what is special with Loxo?
Its approval of Vitrakvi in Nov 2018 is definitely a remarkable one, marking the second approval by the FDA based on a patient’s tumor’s molecular information (TRK fusion), regardless of the location of the tumor within the body. (pancan)
That has been the trend since targeted therapies were proved to be extraordinarily effective in certain types of cancer, usually characterized by gene mutations. EGFR is probably the most famous one.
But FDA approvals were still linked to the tumor locations until May 2017 when Merck’s Keytruda was approved upon a biomarker – microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) or mismatch repair deficient (dMMR).
Before Keytruda became the first cancer treatment for any solid tumor with a specific genetic feature, it had been approved for the treatment of certain patients with metastatic melanoma, metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer, refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma, and urothelial carcinoma.
Loxo’s Vitrakvi, however, received its approval solely based on biomarkers since the beginning. Also, Vitrakvi is the first targeted therapy to be approved this way.
And this big step forward for precision medicine is now acquired by Eli Lilly.
「Podcast of the Week」Synthetic Biology
a16z with James Collins, Termeer Professor of Bioengineering at MIT
「Video of the Week」Tesla Gigafactory
Tesla CEO @elonmusk with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong at Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory ground breaking ceremony. $TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina #GF3 pic.twitter.com/sIecnGsU71
— Vincent (@vincent13031925) January 7, 2019
As Elon Musk went to Shanghai for the groundbreaking of Tesla’s first international factory on Jan 6, this video about Gigafactory by Verge is worth watching to refresh the basic understanding of its status and future.
“This is Elon Musk’s key to Tesla’s future”