16. The Elegant Universe: Superstrings, Hidden Dimensions, and the Quest for the Ultimate Theory by Brian Greene
/《宇宙的琴弦》—— 布赖恩·格林
11 月读完
一本深入浅出讲述物理上的弦理论的书。广义相对论和量子力学的**不兼容**是物理学中的世纪难题,superstring theory (超弦理论) 是目前可以**统一两者**,并可能成为**物理学“终极理论”**的理论 (M 理论)。作者先分别阐述了广义相对论和量子力学,之后尽可能易懂地描述了超弦、高维空间等。部分内容读起来还是比较难,但这已然是最好的科普级别。
17. Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It by Peter Peterson
/没有找到中文译本
12 月读完
一本 2004 年的书,作者是上面提过的 Blackstone co-founder,不留情面的描述了美国的 twin deficits (财政赤字和贸易赤字),以及美国两党 – 在选民面前,共和党抓着 tax cuts,彰显 how little they can give to government,民主党抓着 healthcare,彰显 how much they can take from government;与当下的美国对比起来极其有趣。
1. The Liar’s Ball: The Extraordinary Saga of How One Building Broke the World’s Toughest Tycoons by Vicky Ward
/《骗子的舞会:史上最昂贵的商业地产争夺战》—— 维基·沃德
第一本是去年 11 月读完(去年计划提前完成,这本书算入18 年计划)
主要围绕纽约地标之一 – 第五大道上的 General Motors Building (通用汽车大厦) – 涉及了纽约地产几十年的历史。作者从 Harry Macklowe 2003 年 14 亿美元从 Trump 和 Conseco 手中拿下 GM Building 前后展开,包括其前后拥有者,关联的投行、律师、保险公司等。另一方面,从通用汽车,一度全世界最大的汽车制造商,到 06 年 GM Building 门口开业的苹果店,地标在 Macklowe 手中成为新的地标。某种程度上说,这是苹果的加冕仪式 – **从通用手中接过美国制造业扛把子的大旗**,也是全球经济增量从传统制造业转型的标志。
2. Life on the Edge: The Coming of Age of Quantum Biology by Jim Al-Khalili and Johnjoe McFadden
/《神秘的量子生命》—— 吉姆·艾尔·哈利利 & 约翰乔·麦克法登
1 月读完
并不喜欢这个中文标题。2015年7月出版,一本以高中物理化学基础 + google 可以读下的书。作者用比较易懂的语言阐述**量子生物学** – 运用量子力学来解释生物学中的现象,比如酶的催化作用中的 quantum tunnelling (量子隧穿,新的思路解释酶超过传统力学模型下的效率)、光合作用中的 quantum coherence (量子相干性,用 wave-like energy transfering 解释被捕获光子以近乎零损失的效率找到 reaction center) 等等。一直认为生物学是人类至今还没能参透的科目 – **you don’t understand what you can’t build**。但书中内容不一定是真理,量子生物学是一个探索中的领域,未来可能有更正确的理论。
5. King of Capital: The Remarkable Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of Steve Schwarzman and Blackstone by David Carey and John Morris
/《资本之王》—— 戴维·凯里 & 约翰·莫里斯
3 月读完
一本早就摆在 reading list 里的书,终于读完了原版。这是一部 Blackstone 的历史,也是小半个美国 PE 市场简史:a) 能否抓住整个市场的波荡起伏十分重要 – **vintage year as a beta**; b) 政策监管变化和必然结果 – 比如 corporate pension funds 监管的放松催生的 junk bond 和 PE 融资;Reagan tax cut 里根的减税 28% -> 20% top capital gain tax rate; c) 运气是需要的,也很难说是不是运气 – 比如 Blackstone 2007 年压着线完成的 IPO。虽说现在提 Blackstone 关注点都在 Schwarzman,但有两个极其重要的因素成就今天的 Blackstone:1. 另一位 cofounder Peter Peterson (今年 3 月去世,RIP) 的 mentorship;2. 合作共享 – 拉起 MBS 业务的 Larry Fink 等 (后来的 BlackRock),拉起 real estate 业务的 Jonathan Gray (WH ’92)。
Talks around Canada’s housing market have been surging – about its booming prices and about its looming risks.
The price side – directly shown by its pricing index from Statistics Canada – plotted below from Jan. 2006 – Oct. 2018.
Canada Housing Price Index | Source: Author, Statistics Canada
Toronto’ prices are the most wild in among Canada’s housing markets – nearly doubled in 39 month from Jan. 2014 to Apr. 2017.
Toronto home prices 2014 – 2017 | Source: Financial Post
The price itself is not actually something to worry about. But as FT argued, “House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.” Similarly on Huffpost, “Toronto’s house price index doubled between 2011 and 2017, even as household incomes grew by single percentage points.”
And let’s take a look at the housing debt level – the risky side.
Bank of Canada said the two trillion dollars of debt is around 170% of disposable income.
and housing debt versus GDP – just passed 100% for 2017 Q2.
The regulator took actions to cool down the market.
The short-sellers/investors took theirs too.
Home Capital is at the center, Canada’s largest provider of home loans to the newly arrived and self-employed.
Home Capital Stock Price (C$) | Source: Bloomberg
In Jun. 2017, Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle Berkshire committed to acquire a 38.39% stake as part of a rescue package (C$2.4 billion, including C$400 million equity and C$2 billion credit line with 9% interest rate). The first tranche of equity investment acquired a 19.99% ownership.
However as the second tranche of equity investment wan’t approved, now in Dec. 2018, the updates came as Buffett would sell most of its stake and reduce ownership level to less than 10%.
Home Capital is under control and stabilized now.
A single crisis is easier to solve than a systematic problem between housing prices and local income.
Since 2017, three major airlines in US have made changes to their boarding process, in the face of different layers/tiers, ticket types and other privileges.
Here is a description of the mess before – “Under American’s old boarding call, Group 1 actually was the fifth group called for boarding, trailing the carrier’s elite frequent-fliers and first- and business-class customers who were subdivided into five groups of their own that all boarded earlier.”
“Group 1 actually was the fifth group called for boarding”
What are the “new” procedures and how airlines value their customers?
American Airlines – 10 segments
Group
Boarding pass type
ConciergeKey℠ members
ConciergeKey℠
Group 1
First
Active duty U.S. military with military I.D.
(Business on a 2-class international plane)
Group 2
Executive Platinum oneworld® Emerald℠
(Business on a 3-class plane)
Main Cabin Extra (excluding Basic Economy)
Eligible AAdvantage® credit cardmembers*
Eligible corporate travelers**
Group 6
Group 6
Group 7
Group 7
Group 8
Group 8
Basic Economy to / from Europe
Group 9
Basic Economy within the U.S., Canada, Central America, Mexico & Caribbean
Delta Airlines – 7 segments
Pre-Boarding
Customers needing assistance or additional time to board, including families with car seats or strollers
Active Duty U.S. Military personnel with ID
Premium Boarding Zone
Delta One® customers
First Class customers
Delta Premium Select customers
Diamond Medallion® Members
Sky Priority Boarding Zone
Platinum Medallion® Members
Gold Medallion® Members
Delta Comfort+® customers
Flying Blue Platinum and Gold members
Virgin Atlantic Flying Club Gold members
Virgin Australia Platinum and Gold members
GOL Smiles Diamond members
SkyTeam® Elite Plus members
Zone 1
Silver Medallion® Members
Delta Corporate Travelers
Priority Boarding Trip Extra customers
Gold, Platinum and Reserve Delta SkyMiles® Credit Card Members
Flying Blue Silver members
Virgin Australia Velocity Silver members
GOL Smiles Gold members
Sky Team® Elite
United℠ Explorer, Club, Presidential Plus℠ and Awards Cardmembers
Groups 3 – 5
Economy Plus®
United Economy®
Basic Economy*
* Customers who have purchased a Basic Economy ticket will be in the last boarding group, except for Premier members, Chase Cardmembers of qualifying cards and Star Alliance Gold members, who will still receive their priority boarding.
..
Just a reflection on the complicated business development efforts and corporate strategies… think about the internal slides behind the schemes
A screenshot on Thursday Dec. 21 at around 5:45pm PST, nearly $10mn has been raised for “The Wall”… out of the $1bn target for the project on gofundme.com.
[The wall funding issue has been the center of government shutdown. The dispute around the funding escalated on Dec. 11 when Trump, Nancy Pelosi (leader of the House Democrats), Chuck Schumer (Senate Minority Leader) “publicly clashed” in oval office meeting.]
But Trump insisted on $5bn.. so $10mn is only ~0.2% of his goal.
The campaign creator mentioned that the government projects had been funded by private sectors before, i.e. Washington Monument repair of $7.5mn (kinda tiny compared to $5bn).