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Blog
「Video of the Week」Animation of Hydraulic Fracturing (fracking)
The week when Emerge Energy Services LP (EMSE) Enters into Restructuring Support Agreement
Noteholders under the note purchase agreement will receive new second lien secured notes and pro rata ownership interests in new common units representing a 95% limited partner interest in the Partnership.
NIO Feeling Similar Pain As Tesla – Lack of Demand
When Tesla said “Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter”, NIO wanted to say something similar.
The 2019 Q1 deliveries number was approximately half of that in 2018 Q4. (Still a good job in ramping up production fast)
To compare in numbers:
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- Tesla deliveries is ~15.8x NIO’s in 2019 Q1, ~11.4x in 2018 Q4
- Tesla’s automotive revenue in 2018 Q4 was $6.3 billion vs. NIO $0.5 billion: ~12.6x
- Current valuation 8x ($40bn vs. $5bn)
NIO said ES6 (to start deliveries in June) should have more than 10,000 pre-orders before deliveries.
Hong Kong Biotech IPOs – How Are They Doing
Filing Date | Prospectus Date | |||
HKG:1672 | Ascletis Pharma Inc | 歌礼制药 | 05/07/2018 | 7/20/2018 |
HKG:2552 | Hua Medicine | 華領醫藥 | 06/06/2018 | 8/31/2018 |
HKG:1801 | Innovent Biologics Inc | 信達生物 | 06/28/2018 | 10/18/2018 |
HKG:6185 | Cansino Biologics Inc | 康希諾生物 | 7/17/2018 | 3/18/2019 |
HKG:6160 | Beigene Ltd | 百濟神州 | 7/24/2018 | 7/30/2018 |
HKG:1877 | Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co Ltd | 君實生物 | 08/06/2018 | 12/11/2018 |
HKG:2616 | CStone Pharmaceuticals | 基石藥業 | 11/11/2018 | 2/14/2019 |
An Update on Tesla
In the previous post on Tesla’s productions & deliveries (2018 Q4), a not-so-good Q1 is somehow foreseeable, when Model 3 has little QoQ growth from Q3 to Q4 despite the holiday season and a fade in US tax credit at year-end.
Tesla has more concerning issues.
Depressed Margins
The mass production of Model 3 in 2018 H2 helped to improve the automotive sales gross margin in Q3 and Q4.
However, due to the price reduction in 2019 Q1, less absorption of fixed cost and more international deliveries, the automotive sales gross margin went back to the 18-19% region in 2019 Q1.
While production in China is expected to reach a rate of 2,000 vehicles a week by the end of 2019 (according to Elon Musk), the gross margin of automotive sales will remain <20% for 2019 I think (with model 3 basic)
Tesla said the capital spend (CapEx) per unit of capacity for Shanghai factory is expected to be less than half of that of the Model 3 line in Fremont. Not 50% COGS though.
Model S & X Halved
Number of produced is at ~56% of 2018 Q4.
Number of delivered is at ~44% of 2018 Q4.
Though, Tesla reaffirmed its prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, thanks to the confidence in Model 3.
China Sales
Although China (China and Europe mainly) sales in 2018 decreased compared to 2017, Tesla’s March performance in China is exceptional, with 9,273 in total (Model 3: 7515; Model X: 1490; Model S: 268)
Many attributed the jump in sales to the “one time” price adjustment in China, including a ¥341 drop in the most expansive Model X (P100D), which then corrected by a general 3% increase.
But the ongoing sales numbers is still in question.
China’s EV market has been increasingly competitive. And in April, a video of a parked Model S emitting smoke and bursting into flames seconds later was spreading across China’s Weibo, which doesn’t do any help.
Who Is Using Financial Mobile Apps
Paypal released its Venmo active users – 40M
Its’s very impressive compared with comparables.
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- JPMorgan: 51M
- Bank of America: 37M
- Wells Fargo: 30M
- Square Cash App: 15M
While there are different types of fee (revenue) in Venmo like instant transfer and merchant fees, I was wondering if Venmo could do ads as well – like Instagram.
「Podcast of the Week」a16z Podcast: So You Wanna Build a Software Company in Healthcare?
Game of Thrones Whiskys
Back in October 2018, HBO and DIAGEO unveiled 9 GOT co-branded whiskies – the new White Walker by Johnnie Walker Blended Scotch Whisky and The Game of Thrones Single Malt Scotch Whisky Collection (8).
Let’s look into some of those whiskies…
White Walker by Johnnie Walker SRP: $36 for 750ml; ABV 41.7%
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- Rich seasonal flavors of vanilla, red fruits and orchard fruits
- Single Malts from Cardhu and Clynelish – one of Scotland’s most Northern distilleries, feature in the product.
Game of Thrones House Stark – Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 43%
Game of Thrones House Targaryen – Cardhu Gold Reserve; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 40%
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- The Cardhu Distillery was pioneered by Helen Cumming and her daughter-in-law Elizabeth during the 1800s, a time when the whisky industry was almost entirely male-dominated
Game of Thrones House Lannister – Lagavulin 9 Year Old; SRP: $64.99 for 750ml; ABV 46%
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- The distillery of Lagavulin officially dates from 1816, when John Johnston and Archibald Campbell constructed two distilleries on the site. One of them became Lagavulin, taking over the other—which one is not exactly known. Records show illicit distillation in at least ten illegal distilleries on the site as far back as 1742 [Wikipedia]
「Video of the Week」Speech synthesis from neural decoding of spoken sentences
Nature Article: Speech synthesis from neural decoding of spoken sentences
No Foreign Property Ownership Allowed In Indonesia
Just went to Indonesia last week and realized that protective rules are more general than I previously had thought.
So the origin – Indonesian Agrarian Law, Law No. 5 of 1960, governs the property ownership in Indonesia in regards to lands.
Article 21.
(4) As long as person possesses a foreign nationality in addition to his Indonesian nationality he/she may not possess any land with ownership right…
Land ownership is called Hak Milik (Right of Ownership) (“HM”), the most complete land title available under Indonesian law. Only Indonesian citizens are allowed to hold HM
Also stated in this law, foreigners are permitted to purchase land or homes under the “Hak Pakai” or “Right to Use” title.
Article 41.
(1) The right of use is the right to use and/or to collect the product, from land directly controlled by the State, or land owned by other persons which gives the rights and obligations stipulated in the decision upon grating this right by the authorized official, or in the agreement to work the land, as far as it not conflict with the spirit and the provision of this law.
Article 42.
Those who may obtain the right of use are:
a. Indonesian citizen;
b. Foreigner residing in Indonesia;
c. Corporation which have been established according to Indonesian Law and having they seat in Indonesia;
d. Foreign corporations having a representation in Indonesia.
There is also the “right to lease”
Those who may become holders of the right to lease are:
a. Indonesian citizens;
b. Foreigner residing in Indonesia;
c. Corporation which has been established according to Indonesia law and having their seats in Indonesia;
d. Foreign corporation having a representative in Indonesia;
In practise, there are usually 3 ways:
1. Hak Pakai (right to use),
for a period up to 80 years (an initial period of 30 years and can be extended twice by 20 years and a further 30 years).
The Indonesian banks will NOT lend money to property owners that only have Hak Pakai status for their property.
2. PT PMA (Perseroan Terbatas Penanaman Modal Asing)
In short, PT PMA = foreign limited liability company
PMA is a legal entity through which a foreign person, foreign company, or foreign government body can obtain the property ownership in Indonesia (meaning generating revenue streams and profit). The establishment of a PT PMA is regulated by Law No. 40/2007 regarding Limited Liability Companies.
PMA can acquire “Hak Guna Bangunana” (“HGB” ) titles, which is the “right to build”
HGB can later easily be converted back to Hak Milik, for example, if the property is sold to an Indonesian or if the foreign investor decides to use the Nominee method.
HGB has a maximum initial period of 30 years and can be extended for a maximum period of 20 years.
HBG can be mortgaged for credit applications to financial institutions.
3. Nominee method
Essentially, it is purchasing a property with its title in the name of an Indonesian citizen. Not allowed.