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Tencent vs. Toutiao and Tencent’s Core Asset

Just two days ago, one of the most popular growing app China “Douyin/Tiktok” (owned by ByteDance, formerly known as Toutiao) was founded to be blocked to login with WeChat (owned by Tencent) for new users.

The two old king in social apps is fighting the rising new star.

In March 2018, WeChat global MAUs surpassed 1 billion.

Douyin said its global MAUs is over 500 million in July 2018.

Tencent’s WeChat has been on the market way earlier (since 2011). Douyin was launched in Sep 2016 but its growth has been so terrifying that Tencent has adopted several defensive actions, including blocking sharing Douyin links in WeChat.

Tencent has also backed Qutoutiao to combat with Jinri Toutiao (Toutiao’s flagship and first product) and Weishi for Douyin.

Now the war has escalated. Toutiao launched a new social app “Duoshan” to challenge the King and Tencent blocked WeChat login for Douyin.

Things are just getting started. But it reminded me of the 3Q war in 2010 between Tencent and Qihu360. Tencent didn’t have WeChat yet and relied on its QQ platform (the previous King).

Tencent vs. Qihu360 | Source: tech.sina.com.cn

During the war, one particular action by Qihu was seen by Pony Ma (Tencent founder and CEO) as the most threatening and he forced users to log off QQ if they don’t uninstall Qihu.

The key in that situation and in Ma’s mind is the copy of social map. The full connections between almost every relevent Chinese internet user.

This is probably what Ma values most and is one of Tencent’s core secrets.

That is what Toutiao is trying to obtain with Duoshan and Douyin today ina different way than Qihu) – the social map of almost every relevant Chinese (young) mobile users. And those would be the future Chinese internet revenue sources/assets/reserves.

The war will continue to unfold and Toutiao is much more powerful than Qihu. Toutiao is one of the most valued private companies in the world, but it is also taking on Baidu for news feeds and ads – multi-battleground just like Uber.

「Video of the Week」Data, Election, Politics and A Stanford Lecture

Recently I saw the movie about Brexit (the uncivil war), which links data mining to campaign, and to votes and the referendum.

That was also used in the US 2008 presidential election. Below is a lecture from Stanford on this topic.

Airline Operation Results 2017 & 2018 (2)

Following up on yesterday’s post – added Delta and United to the little python program.

Data Download

Delta Air Lines operation results

United Airlines operation results

Airline Operation Results 2017 & 2018

Wrote a little python… to extract the monthly operation results from airlines, and calculated load factor change, RPM change and ASM change.

RPM = Revenue passenger miles, and its percentage change year-over-year
ASM = Available seat miles, its percentage change year-over-year
Load factor = RPM / ASM, its change year-over-year
RPM_g = RPM(t) / RPM (t-12) – 1
ASM_g = ASM(t) / ASM (t-12) – 1

I did Alaska and Southwest tonight and will add more…

Data Download:

Alaska Air Group operation results

Southwest Airlines operation results

Protected: Happy Martin Luther King Day!

Current Anti-Aging Startups Roundup

Anti-aging is a centuries-long problem and we don’t have an answer.

Here is a summary of current notable efforts that might provide some sort of solution.

Biopharma/Therapeutics Approach

Unity Biotechnology – eliminate senescent cells

[Darren Baker] & [Jan van Deursen], inventors on patents licensed to Unity; and J.M.v.D. is a co-founder of Unity
- November 2011, a foundational paper published on Nature – Clearance of p16Ink4a-positive senescent cells delays ageing-associated disorders
- February 2016, another foundational paper published on Nature – Naturally occurring p16Ink4a-positive cells shorten healthy lifespan
- November 2016, $116 million Series B, with an additional closing of $35 million in August 2017
[Judith Campisi], co-founder of Unity
- a leading figure in the biology of aging since the early 1990s
- her research is on the role of cellular senescence in cancer and other age-related diseases
- a review on Four faces of cellular senescence in 2011
- a MIT Technology Review conversation with Camplisi
March 2018, $55 million Series C, with an additional closing of $5 million in April
May 2018, $85 million IPO
Pipeline (Dec. 2018)

Source: Unity Cellular Senescence Investor & Analyst Presentation on Dec. 11, 2018

Lead candidate UBX0101, a first-in-class senolytic molecule
- Preclinical – April 2017, a paper published on Nature Medicine, Local clearance of senescent cells attenuates the development of post-traumatic osteoarthritis and creates a pro-regenerative environment, the selective elimination of senescent cells in the knees of mice, and slow of the progression of disease, reduced pain, and induced cartilage production in human knee tissue grown in culture.
- Phase I
  - IND cleared by FDA in April 2018
  - clinical trial
  - First patient dosed in June 2018
  - Cohort expansion in December 2018 with a higher dose (4 mg), compared with previous cohorts 1 through 5 (0.1 to 2 mg dose)
UBX1967
- January 2019, completed license agreement with Ascentage Pharma, granting Unity the exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights and non-exclusive manufacturing rights outside of Greater China (China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) for UBX1967 in all non-oncology indications. Inside Greater China, UNITY is obligated to commercialize UBX1967 through a joint venture with Ascentage Pharma. The UBX1967 License Agreement also grants UNITY the right to continue its preclinical development efforts with respect to another Ascentage Pharma-controlled Bcl-2 inhibitor compound that will serve as a back-up to UBX1967.
- Per the 2016 pact, should Unity choose to license at least one more products, the Chinese biotech will gain a total of 1,333,338 shares
- plans to file an IND application for UBX1967 in the second half of 2019

Calico – A previous google company

Founded in 2013, Calico started within Google (later Alphabet) and soon jump-started with huge fundings – a $1.5 billion initiative/collaboration in September 2014 with Abbvie. “AbbVie and Calico will each initially provide up to $250 million to fund the collaboration with the potential for both sides to contribute an additional $500 million.”
In June 2018, the collaboration was extended with another $1 billion. “AbbVie and Calico will each commit to contribute an additional $500 million to the collaboration.”
It was also cited that “since 2014, the collaboration between the two companies has produced more than two dozen early-stage programs addressing disease states across oncology and neuroscience and yielded new insights into the biology of aging.”

samumed

Raised $438M in August 2018 at a valuation of $12 billion
8 programs in its pipeline: two Phase II drugs, five in Phase I, and one preclinical (Endpoints reported in Aug. 2018); one of the Phase II drug in Androgenetic Alopecia has moved to Phase III (Jan. 2019)

Napa Therapeutics

Buck Institute + Juvenescence + Insilico Medicine
Formed in August 2018
based on research in NAD metabolism conducted in the lab of Eric Verdin, MD, President and CEO of the Buck Institute

Data Approach

Juvenescence AI

A subsidiary of Juvenescence, a joint effort of Juvenescence + Insilico Medicine
Formed in July 2017

Human Longevity

Was valued at $1.6 billion in 2017 with fundings from Celgene, Illumina, GE Ventures, etc.
Declined to a valuation of $310 million according to a WSJ report

Portfolio Approach

Juvenescence

Raised $50 million Series A in June 2018 and $46 million Series B-1 in Jan 2019
Investments/Subsidiaries
- Juvenescence AI (see above)
- Napa Therapeutics (see above)
- August 2018, $43.2 million cash + note 50/50 to BioTime (NYSE: BTX) for AgeX shares
- June 2018, $5 million investments in AgeX Therapeutics
- May 2018, $3 million investment in LyGenesis
- Insilico Medicine

Life Biosciences

Jan. 2019 Series B of $50 million
co-founded in 2017 by David Sinclair and Tristan Edwards
8 Subsidiaries
- Prana Biotechnology (an initial $7.5 million investment in Jan.2019)
- Lua, HIPAA-compliant medical technology platform (acquired in Oct. 2018)
- Senolytic Therapeutics acquired at a very early stage
- Jumpstart Fertility acquired at a very early stage
- the other four were formed in-house (Selphagy Tx, Spotlight Biosciences, Continuum Biosciences, Animal Biosciences)

Somehow, reminded me of Theranos… also an area that might not be reguated by FDA… (Ageing is not a disease by FDA’s definition) and some are backed by non-traditional biotech VC firms… But most seemed to be more experienced and sophisticated in biology and medicine (than Theranos’ average).

「Video of the Week」EV Battery and Uses of Materials

An introductory estimation of use of EV battery materials and reserves on earth.

Conclusion in the video may not be right but is useful as basic assumptions.

Trees and Global Warming

Planting trees seems to be one of the most common and economic solution to reduce CO2 and is well-recognized around the globe. It is also one of the “negative-emissions technologies” to help meet Paris Agreement targets – afforestation and reforestation.

However, climate changes are not that simple and global temperature won’t be restored just by planting trees.

Clearly, we have omitted some “negative impacts” of trees since the beginning. More efforts are definitely needed to plant trees more effective.

One of the problems is “albedo effect”. Tree leaves absorb more sunlight than do other types of land cover. Forests can reduce Earth’s surface albedo, meaning that the planet reflects less incoming sunlight back into space, leading to warming. (Nature)

Also, trees themselves are emitting CH4 and N2O, greenhouse gases.

The question, raised on New York Times with Prof. Unger at Yale in 2014, had previously attracted lots of debates.

I think it is more or less similar to companies’ earnings projection. Before launching a new product, earnings projection looks great. But it is often overestimated. Other cost items will appear, leaving the product a thinner margin.

Trees are the same. Simply planting trees probably won’t give us the estimated benefits. While I believe the “net effect” is good, we do need more sophisticated understanding and solutions regarding trees.

A Note on 5G & Its Slicing as a Real Estate Play

【推荐读物】Recommending this insightful and objective article by Benedict Evans from a16z – 5G: if you build it, we will fill it.

Below is an excerpt of his comments on slicing…

One of the cooler features of 5G is that it lets you split out dedicated capacity for particular use cases – so-called ‘network slicing’. Today (to simplify hugely), although network operators try to do traffic management, all traffic in the cell is fundamentally using the same capacity. 5G lets you create dedicated private capacity in the radios network with specific characteristics. So, you could sell a truck operator dedicated capacity on the two miles between a specific freeway exit and a specific warehouse. Or, you could offer an IoT operator (or alarm company) much lower bandwidth but over a wider area.

US Government Shutdown – an Incomplete List of Direct Effects in Business

On Jan 10, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented at the Economic Club about government shutdown…

In the short term, if government shutdowns don’t last very long, they have typically not left much of a mark on the economy… A longer shutdown is something we haven’t had. If we have an extended shutdown, and I do think that that would show up in the data pretty clearly,… we would have a less clear picture into the economy if it were to go on much longer.

Here is an incomplete list of effects in business…

SEC & IPO – Could the Government Shutdown Affect IPOs? by Knowledge@Wharton (delayed much-anticipated tech offerings such as Uber and Lyft… but market conditions have been “very difficult” for IPOs anyway…)
FDA & Drug Approvals – Partial Government Shutdown’s Impact On FDA Drug Approvals (the FDA has suspended reviews of existing IND and BLA applications not covered by user fees, and is not reviewing applications for new drugs and biologics submitted during the shutdown period, except for emergency INDs and BLAs. The FDA is also not reviewing medical device applications submitted during the lapse period; and Gottlieb’s keynote address Tuesday was delivered via video conference from Washington)
FAA & TSA & Airports – Travelers Feel Effects of Partial U.S. Government Shutdown as Airports Struggle
SBA & Small Business Loans – Over 300 small-business loans a day aren’t happening because of the shutdown
SEC & Fin-tech companies – Fintechs Start To Feel The Pain From Government Shutdown (Online lenders & alternative asset underwriters couldn’t get SEC permission to repackage loans and sell them or via an IPO offering of the luxury vehicles e.g. Rally Rd)
TBB & Beer Labels and Permits –How The Government Shutdown Impacts Breweries (During the shutdown, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau will not approve labels or process permits)