Benchmark 10-year yield ranges:
| Period | Germany | Italy | Spain | Background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late 1970s–1980s | 6–11% | 10–14% | 11–14% | High inflation and nominal growth |
| Early 1990s peak | ~9% | 14.2% | 14.0% | Currency/ERM crisis |
| 2000–07 | 3–5% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.5–5.5% | Euro convergence |
| 2011–12 crisis peak | ~2% | 7.3% | ~7.6% | Euro break-up/default risk |
| 2020–21 low | −0.8% | 0.45% | Around 0% | ECB QE and pandemic policy |
| August 2026 | 3.26% | 4.08% | 3.72% | Fiscal expansion, inflation and supply |
How did European stocks perform?
| Year | STOXX Europe 600 price return | Total return | Broad environment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | +22.2% | +25.4% | Growth and yields rising |
| 1989 | +24.5% | +28.0% | Reunification optimism |
| 1990 | −17.8% | −15.3% | Bund yields/rates peak; recession fears |
| 1991 | +12.5% | +15.8% | Partial recovery |
| 1992 | +1.6% | +5.8% | ERM currency crisis |
| 1993 | +35.9% | +40.7% | Rate cuts and collapsing yields |
| Index | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 price | −11.3% | +14.4% |
| STOXX Europe 600 total return | −8.6% | +18.2% |
| Germany DAX | −14.7% | +29.1% |
| Italy | −25.2% | +7.8% |
| Spain IBEX | −13.1% | −4.7% |
Note that 2011-12 is different – one key evidence is German yield yield was falling, while now it’s rising in 2026. Note that 2012 stock increased due to euro-breakup crisis being contained.
Germany’s 10-year yield has increased from about 2.86% at end-2025 to 3.26%, or roughly +40 bp YTD.
| Year-end | Germany | Italy | Spain | STOXX 600 price return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 3.05% | 4.47% | 3.86% | −45.6% |
| 2009 | 3.14% | 4.01% | 3.80% | +28.0% |
| 2010 | 2.91% | 4.60% | 5.37% | +8.6% |
| 2011 | 1.93% | 6.81% | 5.50% | −11.3% |
| Jul-12 | 1.24% | 6.00% | 6.80% | Crisis peak |
| 2012 year-end | 1.30% | 4.54% | 5.34% | +14.4% |
