Investing in China: what are the differences? (1) regulation and justice

It’s difficult to understand each regulation. But I think there is a better, more fundamental and actually easier way – through the lens of justice.

However, there seems to be a difference between what China focuses on vs. the West when it comes to justice. In short, I feel that China weighs a fair outcome over procedural justice.

This difference could partially be explained by the fact that China doesn’t always operate based on exact rules. It could be hard to develop a robust law system in a short period of time and in an evolving society. In fact, rules can be modified to suit the needs, which is the opposite of mainstream western belief. 

When big global companies may get away with perfectly executed deals, Chinese companies may face the consequences afterwards (even before regulation is in place). After all, trouble may come in various forms.

That being said, justice is important. A company may build goodwill to offset any negative consequences it may create, especially formalized in the future. For example, Tencent’ gaming business is lucrative and from time to time is seen to have negative impacts on teenagers. Although Tencent could be procedurally perfect and compliant, it may not be enough. I believe it’s the WeChat etc. that brings a good amount of positive progresses that provide a cushion. Therefore, as those balanced out, it’s not injustice for Tencent to make such a large sum of money. 

Cells, individuals, tissues, communities

Cells to tissues are like individuals to communities.

All those tissues form different organs and a body – just like communities (corporations, institutions, all sorts of organizations, etc.) fulfilling different functions and creating a society.

Cells age. So do we. Cells can be renewed while performing the same duty. It’s just like human beings reproducing and dying.

Cells evolve, so we are  more capable than the creatures hundreds of millions of years ago. People learn, so civilizations grow and build on their own.

Brand advertising in 新国货时代

Many new consumer brands in China are at the inflection point now. While they are often good at initial traffic generation and use of KOLs, brand advertising seems still an effective and a necessary step to go mainstream. It’s also the ultimate battle that can build brand equity into a long-term competitive advantage.

Three takeaways:

1/ buying traffic is cost-effective and useful in early stage to test and improve the product. But it seems to have a decreasing marginal return after certain level – this is also where brand advertising should kick in.

2/ brand advertising may take time to be “effective” when non-linear growth can be observed. Three key factors to determine whether it will work / how long it’s gonna take: 产品完成度,种草基础,渠道渗透

3/ for new segments, first mover or the current market share leader doesn’t effectively mean it’s the winner – as long as there is no clear leadership in consumers’ mind. The first to establish a strong association or become the cognitive referent is the key.

Second-hand e-commerce boom (hype)?

Poshmark (POSH) had a great run at the beginning of 2021 – closed at $101.5 per share on its first day (Jan 14), or 142% higher than its IPO price of $42.

On March 29, ThredUp (TDUP) went IPO with $14 listing price, closing its first day at $31.4 per share, or 124% higher.

Capital reacts fast in China as Zhuanzhuan raised $390 million on Apr 1. Zhuanzhuan was from Wuba and raise $300 in Sep 2019. In May 2020, Zhuanzhuan merged with Zhaoliangji, with post-merger valution of $1.8 billion.


However, valuations seem to be rich.

A long RealReal (REAL) short Poshmark (POSH) trade would return more than 13% in four week (March 4 – April 1).

Poshmark was trading at 10x forward rev while RealReals is below 5x.

If short was implemented right before Poshmark’s earnings on Mar 11, which disappoints, return would be 29%.


2020 revenue

Poshmark: $262.1mn

RealReal: $299.9mn

ThredUp: $186.0mn

Btw, these companies are not growing crazy at 50% or above – CAGR for the next 3 years is like 30%.

Moat is not enough. Social responsibility is better.

Internet & tech companies are facing increasing pressure from regulators across the globe.

Moat is not even a good word now – as it may imply reduced competition. Lawful practices don’t mean they won’t attract criticism.

What’s a better strategy?

1/ Being socially responsible for the future by investing in R&D seems to be a good choice. Ali Cloud is even more important to Alibaba now than its e-commerce business.

2/ Being socially responsible for the current by providing services for free and improving them overtime, e.g. Tencent’s chat apps. Although sometimes”free” is part of the business model, it does create value for users.

3/ Being socially responsible for the unmet demands. It seems to me that ByteDance’s education business is falling into this category.

 

 

Relationship-based Economy and Tax

It’s fair to say that relationship-based economy is a bit like barter-based economy, where a “double confidence of wants” is usually needed.

It is less efficient, compared with the modern economy where a mutually agreed intermediary “currency” is used.

And relationship-based transactions can often span a very long time frame – any immediate “payment” is not required. Although this can be see as a “credit”, usually it can not be used to “pay” for other things. Thus, one person is actually “maintaining” many accounts with people around him/her, where bilateral relationships are recorded.

One reason that relationship-based transactions have been popular in Asia cultures might due to the taxes.

In ancient times, when taxes could be high and unpredictable, relationship-based transactions are not obvious to others outside the transaction.

Technically speaking, it’s probably not a “transaction” under modern definition. It’s just “I help someone and he/she might help me some day”.

Purpose of Regulation

We had an interesting discussion today on the purpose of regulation. The case in point was the banking and securities regulation in 1933 & 1934.

Three key purposes:

1/ To ensure fairness, leveling the playing field – e.g. information disclosure, less friction

2/ To manage externalities – e.g. systematic risks or spillover effects

3/ To build public confidence – although it may create some enduring wedges as well

On the third point, the banking or securities act is not the perfect example; but in healthcare/drug, FDA seems to deliver a better outcome.

Also today, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation issued statement on fines over grocery group buying companies.

In the long run, good regulations are helping the industry grow – it encourages balanced growth, instead of growth at all cost.

Current State of EV Market(cap)

EV is booming, in market cap and in sales.

1/ Three big markets, EU, China and US, account for more than 90% of global xEV volume; while xEV is just a bit more than 5% of global unit volume.

Global BEV+PHEV unit volume is expected to be 3.24 million in 2020, or a bit more than 5% of the overall ~60 million vehicle market globally.

Nearly 1.4 million BEVs and PHEVs were registered in Europe during 2020, 137 % more than in 2019

China alone contributed more than 1.3 million in unit volume.

US grew slow (~4%), with a bit more than 0.3 million units sold.

2/ Globally, industry valued at 8x 2022 revenue

Currently, EV companies globally have a market cap of ~$958 billion; Tesla accounts for ~2/3 of that.

Expected 2022 revenues of those EV companies sum up to $122 billion (Tesla accounts for half), while TTM revenues are ~$57 billion.

Overall EV/ ’22 Sales = 7.9x

If normalized margin is 20%, then the valuation indicates ~40x P/E.. where E is normalized 2022 level.

Source: this google sheet compiled by FT.

Bitcoin’s Downside (?)

So Bitcoin price traded at over $50k today, surpassing $1 trillion market cap.

People are seeing the future where Bitcoin are welcomed or adopted in certain ways by major institutions.

– Tesla bought $1.5 billion Bitcoin recently.

– Twitter considers “how we might pay employees should they ask to be paid in bitcoin, how we might pay a vendor if they asked to be paid in bitcoin and whether we need to have bitcoin on our balance sheet

– Banks like BNY Mellon are going to offer Bitcoin-based service.

While I share a similar view that it is becoming more mainstream, I think it also faces risks – people should remember that it’s not rare that governments “hated” gold occasionally in the past.

“One of his first moves as President was to declare a four-day bank holiday and suspend gold exports. Within days, the Emergency Banking Act was enforced that prohibited banks to pay out gold coins or bullion or gold certificates except under a government-issued license.

Just two weeks prior to abandoning the gold standard, he issued an executive order prohibiting hoarding of gold coins, bullion or gold certificates.” – Investopidia “When FDR Abandoned the Gold Standard”

As people talk about how Bitcoin can replace gold, the risk transfers to Bitcoin as well.

Fed’ or others’ ability to effectively print money will be reduced if goods and services are priced in Bitcoin and wages are paid in Bitcoin.

Facebook – Not An Easy Business

Facebook blocked all news content in a Australia on Thursday – users cannot share news links and Facebook Pages of media account are taken down.

This is in response to Australian government’s proposed law, which requires payment deals between media outlets and tech companies over content.

This is also one day after Google stroke a deal with News Corp, the media giant. Under the proposed law, Google will need to pay for news content if they appear in search results.

1/ Why Google and Facebook chose different routes (at least for now)?

I think their ad business are fundamentally different.

Facebook ads is seen on Facebook platforms, but Google ads is seen on both Google products and third-party websites.

Google is enabling third-party advertisers (think about the ads on newspaper’ website) to make money, e.g. AdSense. They are partners, and this network of advertisers is valuable to Google.

Facebook’s ads is sold by getting to know users better and letting users stay on its platforms longer. Traffic is important to Facebook, so news is important as a form of content that users want to see. However, Facebook also thinks it is giving media outlets traffic in return. More important, ads sold by Facebook is not relying on those media outlet.

2/ What content should be on social media?

Instagram is in a purer form of social media, so does Twitter. They are usually gravitating towards certain types of contents. On the other hand, products such as Facebook’ main app are aggregating all kinds of “feeds” as long as they can drive traffic.

I think the two types are both here to stay.

Another related issue is how to regulate contents, which has been an increasingly important issue in the US and globally.

“Regulate more” or “regulate less”?

I think either way more regulatory interventions (government) is most likely inevitable.

If platforms regulate less, regulators may think Section 230 is providing to much protection and platforms are not doing enough for their social responsibility.

If platforms regulate more, regulators might think they have too much power, which is also risky. And as they moderate more, it costs more and they may be challenged more often on their decisions.

“Public square” is not easy. “Digital living room” is where Facebook may find more flexibility in contents.

Paying for news might be one of the solutions to navigate some content risk, e.g. fake news, misinformation. However, fake news or misinformation might be the traffic driver that Facebook values.