Category: lenS & thoughtS

每个国家都有一些独特的标签，一些特色／支柱产业。中国大陆这几十年的房地产、基建，近几年的互联网…；美国的科技，医疗，金融…；德国的汽车，制造…

一些行业的全球化覆盖是国家竞争力的体现之一。

现在加拿大有了一个新标签和一项可以渗透全球的新产业 – 大麻业

今年10月17日，加拿大 recreational use of Marijuana 将正式合法化。

大麻的医用由来已久，加州1996年成为美国第一个将 medical use of Marijuana 合法化的州。目前全美 39 个州和 Washington D.C. 都以不同方式合法化了医用大麻。

大麻的娱乐使用、大麻种植、大麻携带、大麻销售等具体规定，各州均不一。下图有简单的说明，截止 18年  8 月（原文链接）

大麻产业即将飞速发展毋庸置疑 。相关产业比如大麻饮料 – 可口可乐公司等也在积极合作研发大麻饮料 Coca-Cola Is Eyeing the Cannabis Market

大麻股飞涨也是肯定的 – TLRY 7/19 IPO price $17.00 -> 今天最高 $300 一股的成交..

短期 overvalued 的情况是肯定的。至少远期巨大的市场需要细分，需要竞争，需要 discount 回来。

还有一点值得考虑。虽然投资标的各有不同，但背后投资人的口味.. 是很类似的，甚至是一波人/钱。去年的数字货币，到之前的蔚来汽车趣头条。

这是一股神秘的东方力量。

Socially responsible investing (SRI) is not a new idea. It can be traced back to 1758 Quaker Philadelphia Yearly Meeting, where slave trade was banned, according to wikipedia. (Philadelphia was known as “Quaker City” and Quaker became Penn’s mascot later)

Some commonly recognized issues are summarized under environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG).

In the current setting, a case in point is Starbucks’ cups and straws evolution. On its way to become “green”, some important episodes include Starbucks’ plan to develop fully recyclable cups in 2008, shareholders’ proposal on its annual proxy statement since 2010, etc… This year, Starbucks announced its plan to eliminate plastic straws globally by 2020 and a $10m commitment to develop recyclable, compostable cup solution.

Another very interesting case comes from Apple, and an article I read earlier this year on Harvard Business Review named “Why an Activist Hedge Fund Cares Whether Apple’s Devices Are Bad for Kids” –

On January 6, 2017, JANA Partners, a New York–based activist hedge fund, and the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) sent a letter to Apple’s board of directors that may change the future of activist investing. Citing a substantial body of expert research, the letter stated, “We believe there is a clear need for Apple to offer parents more choices and tools to help them ensure that young consumers are using your products in an optimal manner.”

Many would think of SRI as a concept – like a concept car that is not viable – at least for now, or even as a negative factor dragging investment returns (e.g. Starbucks need to hike R&D spend and might end up with more expensive cups and straws; Young consumers spending less time on Apple will negatively impact some metrics and might result in using other technology products). However, I believe SRI will show its real benefits – in at least two cases I shall present below.

1. Some real benefits in the long run.
   • For example, less addictive Apple products might attract better educated consumers/families, who might exhibit higher purchasing power now and in the future (when they grow up). Some real value creation is out there.
   • Another possible situation: for non-SRI, eventually, some extreme cases come up, which will lead to government/investigator intervention and might lead to new regulations that hurt the company. So, by SRI, we are lowering those risks.
2. No tangible benefits developed.
   • But, if SRI becomes a concept that everyone knows and agrees upon, some opportunities will be artificially created. For example, some SRI-premium or discount are definitely coming.
   • If most people believe something is true, it is true (for those phenomena that are not the subject matter of natural science; investing seems to be one of them).
   • Attacking non-ESG compliant investments might be a another short strategy; and a new form of long/short investment might be created.

以阿根廷为代表的新兴国家市场的货币危机这几周愈演愈烈，阿根廷8月30日把benchmark interest rate从45%提高至60%来defend货币贬值。从4月到现在相对于美元贬值了接近一半。

from Bloomberg –

碰巧，最近在读索罗斯的The Alchemy of Finance（还没有读完），觉得很多dots可以connect起来；international banking也只是近50年的事（1970s是boom的开始）；在这里放一些书中节选（目前读到第五章），international lending相关：

• Flush with funds, they（指banks） became aggressive lenders, and they found plenty of takers. Less developed countries without oil sought to finance their deficits by running up large debts; those with oil embarked on ambitious expansion programs, which they financed by borrowing on the strength of their oil reserves
• It is amazing how little information borrowing countries had to supply in order to obtain loans. Lending banks did not even know how much money the countries in question were borrowing elsewhere.
• Debtor countries preferred to deal with commercial banks rather than go to the International Monetary Fund when they were in balance-of-payments difficulties. Unwittingly, commercial banks took over one of the functions that the Bretton Woods institutions – the IMF and the World Bank – had been designed to fulfill
• In retrospect it is obvious that the borrowers spent the money unwisely. At best they built white elephants like the Itaipu Dam in Brazil; at worst they spent it on armaments or used it to maintain unrealistically high exchange rates as in the “southern cone” countries of Argentina and Chile
• The boom kept the demand for energy growing. The OPEC countries grew richer and less in need of current income, while negative real interest rates made it more attractive to keep oil in the ground than cash in the bank. This provided the setting in which the disruption of Iranian production in 1979 caused a second crisis and a second jump in the price of oil. This time the response was different. Inflation had become a dominant concern
• …

合理的borrowing/lending本是好事，怎么花这些钱，是需要考量的事。

另外，一个responsible lender不应该硬塞大量钱给没有准备好的人／国家。

P.S. 将新开一个关于书的section