Finally, UBER S-1 Available

The S-1 of much anticipated Uber IPO is publicly available for the first time.

The valuation is said to be $90-100 billion, lower than previously reported.

That is also the reason that Lyft’s valuation is under pressure these days. It all makes that Lyft and Morgan Stanley have something to argue about… Lyft’s high valuation at IPO makes it difficult for Morgan Stanley and other banks to sell Uber. (and the pressure is much higher in such a big deal – $10 billion)

So relatively speaking, how much “higher” is Lyft valued?

  • Uber adjusted ebitda -1.85 billion vs. Lyft -944 million, ~2x
  • Uber revenue 11.27 billion vs. Lyft 2.16 billion, ~5x
  • Uber total trips 5.2 billion vs. Lyft 619 million, ~8x

Drone Delivery: A Real Thing

Future is closer than most will believe. Drone delivery is yet another example.

Imagined Reality

A few days ago (around April Fools’ Day), a FAKE video (by rendering) populated on Twitter, presenting an Amazon mothership equipped with drones.

However, this may not be far away from what the future will look like, especially for the drone part.

Amazon’s Plan

The idea could be seen in an Amazon patent US000009305280B120160405 filed in December 2014 and issued by the USPTO in April 2016.

Amazon patent for massive flying warehouses equipped with fleets of drones that deliver goods to key locations | Source: BBC

This is part of Amazon Prime Air program first announced in 2013. It looks more viable on the drone-only side, the first delivery made in December 2016 in Cambridge, UK.

Source: Amazon

And in 2017, an Amazon Prime Air drone dropped off some bottles of sunscreen for attendees at the company’s invite-only MARS conference in California. [The Verge]

US Pilot Programs Granted

In the US, FAA has selected 10 state, local and tribal governments for pilot programs in drone testing in May 2018. [More about the program]

    • Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Durant, OK
    • City of San Diego, CA
    • Innovation and Entrepreneurship Investment Authority, Herndon, VA
    • Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka, KS
    • Memphis-Shelby County Airport Authority, Memphis, TN
    • North Carolina Department of Transportation, Raleigh, NC
    • North Dakota Department of Transportation, Bismarck, ND
    • The City of Reno, NV
    • University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK

Alphabet’s Wing in Australia – First to Commercial

Another exciting move is made by Alphabet’s Wing on Tuesday, which was granted approval in Canberra by Australian aviation authority CASA. Wing officially becomes world’s first drone delivery business according to The Guardian.

The deliveries will start with roughly 100 homes in the Canberra area. The drones are required to operate during daylight hours, banned from crossing over major roads and there’s a minimum distance they have to maintain from people on the ground.

Source: wing.com

Meanwhile, according to Wing’s website, they are going to launch the drone delivery service in Finland in spring of 2019, which will be their first operations in Europe.

Before this approval, in September 2016 at Virginia Tech, Wing (a Google X project then) has tested food delivery (Chipotle burritos) in the US for a tenth of a mile, maintaining the kind of line-of-sight flights that the FAA prefers (before any pilot programs). Virginia Tech is home to a U.S. FAA test site.

Wing made its first test in 2014 in Queensland, Australia, delivering a first aid kit, candy bars, dog treats and water to farmers.

Wing graduated from Google X in July 2018.

JD’s Drone in Asia

Earlier this year, JD.com announced that it has completed the first government approved drone flight in Indonesia, delivering backpacks and books to students in a local elementary school.

In China, JD has been approved for drone delivery services in provinces including Shanxi, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi.

Snap’s Comeback Strategy With Partners

Snap (Before 2019 Q1)

Once characterized as the challenger for Facebook, Snap Inc. has faced fierce competitions from FB’s Instagram, which introduced a similar story feature in August 2016.

Snapchat vs. Instagram users comparison | Source: statista

Snap went IPO in March 2017 onto NYSE, valued at more  than $33 billion on the first day of trading, surpassing the previous $3 billion acquisition offer from Facebook in 2013 and a $30 billion acquisition offer from Google in 2016 (not verified, reported in August 2017, when Snap’s stock price had been declining to around $14).

Its road after IPO was not an easy one.

DAU growth peaked right before Instagram’s story launch. Other problems included the questionable change of Snapchat’s interface, departure of CFO (twice, first CFO departed in May 2018, second CFO departed in Jan 2019), etc.

Snap Partner Summit 2019 And Going Forward

The summit was held on April 4, on which new strategies and partnerships were detailed/projected.

By and large, Snap is learning from Facebook and is pivoting to becoming an “infrastructure”.

Broadly speaking, many firms are pursuing the infrastructure play: AWS wants to be the infrastructure for internet services (servers); Facebook & Google want to be the infrastructure of ads; Twitter & Youtube contents can be embedded in various ways, etc.

Snap now has updated its Snap Kit, to include a new Story Kit enabling other apps/sites to implant Snapchat Stories. Namely, users will be able to show/embed/insert their Snapchat Story in Tinder and Houseparty, two initial partners announced.

Snap Kit April 2019 | Source: kit.snapchat.com

Snapchat Audience Network is also being built to help other apps to monetize – a revenue-sharing practise to expand the audience/utility of Snap Ads, so that people who are not on Snapchat will be broadcasted the ads created by advertisers through Snap. [Read more about Facebook Audience Network]

Additionallly (besides ads), Snap announced the partnership with Fitbit to integrate Bitmoji avatars to Fitbit’s devices (Fitbit Ionic™ and Fitbit Versa™), a clock face that dynamically updates throughout the day based on your personal health and fitness data, activity, time of day, and weather. Also, Bitmoji will be seen on Venmo.

Snap’s Bitmoji on Fitbit | Source: theverge.com

 

Middlemen’s Hard Time… PBMs

It has been more than a month since the 7 major drug manufacturers’ CEOs testified before the congress on February 26.

One of the “problems” that pharma CEOs complained about was pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) or the middleman problem.

In a healthcare system involving drugmakers, PBMs, pharmacies, insurers, patients, etc., one of the premises behind CVS’s $70 billion acquisition of Aetna and Cigna’s $54 billion acquisition of Express Scripts might actually make them vulnerable in front of regulators: their bargain power.

CVS Health, Cigna, McKesson, Rite Aid, Walgreens… companies with relatively large exposure between pharmaceutical companies and patients/payers are having a very hard time.

Source: Author, Yahoo Finance

What’s ahead – on March 13, the same committee (Senate Finance Committee) said it has called 5 major PBMs to testify on April 3 (tomorrow…)

    • Cigna
    • CVS
    • Humana
    • OptumRx
    • Prime Therapeutics

They must have been prepared.

Stay stunned.

New Foreign Investment Law, Boao Forum for Asia 2019 And China Development Forum 2019

Following the closing (March 15) of National People’s Congress (NPC)’ 2019 annual meeting in Beijing, two important annual forums were held – China Development Forum 2019 (March and Boao Forum for Asia 2019

One of the major progress made during NPC’s annual meeting is the approval of the new foreign investment law #中华人民共和国外商投资法 (original link here)

The law was first introduced as a draft in 2015 and will come into effect on January 1, 2020.

The new foreign investment law will replace the “three foreign capital laws” – Law on Sino-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures #中外合资经营企业法, Law on Foreign-Capital Enterprises #外资企业法 and Law on Sino-Foreign Cooperative Joint Ventures #中外合作经营企业法, which were introduced in 1979, 1986 and 1988 respectively. They were updated along the way but structural/fundamental changes won’t be easy. (you can’t expect a law to be efficient and perfect after 30-40 years.. in a fast-changing environment)

China Development Forum is more focused on China. And of course, the newly-passed foreign investment law was discussed and introduced to all the CEOs/managements from foreign companies among others.

Again, on Boao Forum For Asia, Premier Li Keqiang reemphasized the plan to make detailed regulations to enforce the effective implementation of the foreign investment law.


Updates:

Current State of Cannabis Companies And The Market (3)

Part III … [see the previous post for Part I and Part II]

Oversupply and Drop in Average Selling Price (ASP)

Compiled from companies’ SEC filings.

TLRY is the only company that didn’t double its sales from Q3 to Q4. The driver here should be the channel discount. CGC’s Q4 sales in kilograms is almost five times the same figure in Q3 (2,197kg -> 10,102kg), while TLRY is only modestly growing comparatively (1,613kg -> 2,053kg, but still very impressive compared with other industries).

Apple March Event, Officially Marching Into Broader Services Categories

Apple announced 3 new (subscription) services today: Apple News+, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade. [they are actually very similar to a previous post Apple’s Service Bundle]


Apple News+ is a $10 per month subscription bundle. Essentially, it is a product of “securitization” of reading magazines & newspapers – just like Spotify as a securitization of listening to musics.

Apple News | Source: apple.com

Apple TV+ will be offered through new Apple TV app. This is important as it might be the first major service/software by Apple that doesn’t require an Apple device.

Apple TV app | Source: apple.com

It doesn’t have a price tag yet. And it is reported that Apple will partner with brands like HBO to offer an add-on option (i.e. additional $10 per month), just like what Hulu, DirectTV and many other streaming plans are providing.

Another question tho, is how the Apple TV app (and the Apple TV+ service) will impact the sales of Apple TV as it will be available on many smart TVs such as Roku, Fire TV (Amazon), Samsung, etc.

Apple TV app availability | Source: apple.com
Apple TV 4K | Source: apple.com

Apple Arcade is coming sooner that I thought. And it will be a cross-platform product working across iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple TV.

Apple Arcade | Source: apple.com

It is a very good showcase/test of how Apple is merging or making it compatible between iOS and MacOS (and tvOS).


What’s next?

A master membership from Apple is possible – something like $98 per month that includes Apple TV+, Apple News+, Apple Music, Apple Arcade, iCloud storage, AppleCare, etc.

Or a modular membership system.

At the core could be the financing of Apple devices’ purchases – maybe around $30-50 per month – and each subscription will be an add-on. This may provide an extra synergy with the new credit card service by Apple and Goldman Sachs.

Apple Card | Source: apple.com

Apple has those great plans to translate sales and customers into cash flows.

But for consumers, there will be some psychological differences between purchasing a device (as an asset) and paying an indefinite monthly fee (as an expenditure). And services are not as showable as devices. Apple (and Apple investors) might need to prepare and think carefully about those subtle changes.

AWS And Its Appearance In Other Companies’ (IPO) Filings

Following upon a previous post about all those tech companies’ rush to Nasdaq, a group of companies have filed S-1 the past weeks, including Lyft, Pinterest and Zoom.

Plus the previous filings from companies such as Snap, we could get a glimpse into the empire of AWS… as the infrastructure of the current tech industry and all these companies’ commitments to pay Amazon.

Several examples. Starting with Pinterest:

    • 2018 revenue $775.9 million
    • 2018 cost fo revenue $241.6 million
    • Total commitment: at least $750 million in 7 years, from July 2017 to June 2023, first year of $125 million
    • Remaining $441.1 million as of Dec.31 2018
    • On average used: $206 million/yr [estimation: (750-441.1)/1.5=206]

Lyft

    • 2018 revenue $2,157 million
    • 2018 cost of revenue $1,243 million
    • Total commitment: at least $300 million in 3 years, from Jan 2019 to Dec 2021, each year at least $80 million
    • On average used: $60 million/yr [estimation: (144-24)/2=60]

Snap

    • 2018 revenue $ 1,180 million
    • 2018 cost of revenue $799 million
    • Total commitment: at least $1.1 billion in 6 years, from Jan 2017 to Dec 2022, ($90.0 million in 2018, $150.0 million in 2019, $215.0 million in 2020, $280.0 million in 2021, and $349.0 million in 2022)
    • On average used: $60 million/yr
    • Snap relies more on Google Cloud: at least $2 billion in 5 years, Jan 2017 to Dec 2021, at least $400 million/yr
    • estimated usage: at least $530 million/yr in 2018

AWS achieved a revenue of $25,655 million in 2018, equivalent to the usage of ~48 Snap combined.

It will be interesting to see how AWS is going to renew/grow those contracts (should be easy, considering the friction to change a cloud provider) and how those companies will negotiate those terms, as more providers are as legit.

And when tech companies are using a blend of private cloud and those services, how AWS and others are going to fill the revenue “hole/gap”.

After all, the Cost of Revenues (partially due to AWS) will be limited by the Revenues (of internet companies); the growth heavily rely on new usages and the overall revenue of all internet companies.

Current State of Cannabis Companies And The Market (2)

Part II … [see the previous post for Part I]

Acquisitions of Supply

To keep up the revenue growth, global partners and their distributions networks are important while expanding supplies is as essential.

Building their own facilities is a must (especially for GMP capacities medical uses) but slow. Acquisitions are needed and done frequently.

These acquisitions are also helping with global distributions and footprints/presence (entry by acquisition). If they produce/manufacture/supply, they must also have sales channels.

ACB:

acquisition of ICC Labs, a leading cannabis company with over 70% market share in Uruguay and medical cannabis licenses in Colombia.

Other supply agreements are also crucial to expand capacity. For example, TLRY and LiveWell Canada entered into a supply agreement in December 2018 (finalized in March 2019) that LiveWell will supply TLRY with a monthly quantity of up to 300 kilograms of hemp-derived CBD isolate, or an equivalent amount of full-spectrum CBD extract, with an option to increase to 500 kilograms per month.

Already, these companies find assets are rising in price, making their acquisitions’ returns lower.

TLRY:

We will not purchase or invest in what we believe to be overpriced supply assets in Canada, which we believe will erode in value in the medium to long term, as the market normalizes.

Global Market Choices & Comments

TLRY:

…while Canada will continue to be an important market for us, we expect to focus the majority of future investments on the U.S. and Europe.

In the next year, we anticipate distributing medical cannabis to at least a half a dozen more countries globally through this partnership with Sandoz.

Our seven production facilities around the world are significantly increasing our global production output compared to 2018.

So, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, we continue to see growth there. Really Chile, Argentina, Peru, Brazil are really early on in their growth curve. And then, in Europe, Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus are all countries that we already ship to.

CGC:

So Europe as a region we have a strategy of investment that covers four countries, South America, four countries, Australia and each of those will have a yield that goes out over anywhere from 1.5 to 3 years.

We expect to see Denmark beginning to supply European markets this coming September and also to contribute to the margin.

ACB:

Our ability to execute on this objective is strengthened by our substantial hemp assets gained through our ownership of Agropro, Europe’s largest organic hemp producer as well through Hempco in Canada and ICC in South America.

Aurora’s presence now spans 22 countries on five continents. A look into two regions Europe and Latin America with a combined population in excess of a billion people. In Europe, we continue to capitalize on the strong central presence we established in Germany. In early October, we became the first private company to be granted an import permit for medical cannabis into Poland.

There are total of 8 EU GMP certified production facilities in the world and we have two of them, plus we have our EU GMP certified distributor Aurora Deutschland.

 

[Update 3/26] CRON:

Cronos Israel, with the Israeli agricultural collective Kibbutz Gan Shmuel. Cronos Israel is focused on the production, manufacturing and distribution of medical cannabis and is in full construction. We anticipate the construction of the 45,000 square-foot greenhouse will be complete in the first half of 2019, and construction of the manufacturing facility will be complete in the second half of 2019. Cronos holds an effective 90% economic equity ownership across the entities Cronos Israel.

In 2018, we also brought our production model to Latin America. Cronos announced a JV with a leading Colombian agricultural services provider with over 30 years of research and expertise, managing industrial scale horticultural operations. This partnership establishes a newly formed entity, NatuEra in Colombia that will develop, cultivate, manufacture and export cannabis-based medical and consumer products for the Latin American and global markets. NatuEra was granted a license to cultivate non-psychoactive cannabis plants to produce seeds for planting and the manufacture of derivative products.

We see Europe and Asia Pacific to be extremely important markets for the future, but in the near term, it is our belief that the development of pharmaceutical form factors and delivery systems for medical cannabis will play a crucial role in growing the prescription and patient base in these markets.

The Company owns a 50% equity interest in Cronos Australia and believes that Cronos Australia will serve as its hub for Australia, New Zealand and South East Asia, bolstering the Company’s supply capabilities and distribution network in the Australasia region.

Current State of Cannabis Companies And The Market (1)

Three companies’ earnings calls are included: Tilray, Inc. (TLRY), Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB).

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) is expected to release 18Q4 earnings next week.

It is a newly opened (legalized) industry that has already attracted some big names’ attention. Its recreational uses, plus its potentials in medical settings and beverages, are supporting some huge market estimates and (partially) their sky-high valuations.

Source: CNBC, FactSet

Net Revenue and yoy growth for the quarter ended on December 31, 2018

CGC – $83 million / 282%

ACB – $54 million / 363%

TLRY – $15.5 million / 204% (revenue includes excise tax of ~$2 million, so $13.5 million net)

[Update 3/26] CRON – $5.6 million / 248%

As the revenue multiple is incredibly high, companies need to ramp up its revenue very fast (to catch up with capital market’s expectations). As the actual cannabis markets usually need more time to educate/develop/open up, it is extremely important to rely on top-tier partners (and their distribution networks) to expand globally to keep the 200%+ growth.


So starting with a roundup of…

Industry Collaborations (where/how to sell)

January 15, 2019: TLRY + Authentic Brands Group – $350 million payments to ABG and revenue sharing of 49%

    • TLRY as a supplier and sharing revenue from its white-labeled products; ABG as a brand manager and distributer
    • the parties will leverage ABG’s portfolio of brands to develop, market and distribute consumer cannabis products across the world, with an immediate focus on [CBD] opportunities in Canada and US
    • TLRY will initially pay to ABG US$100 million and up to US$250 million in cash and stock, subject to the achievement of certain commercial and/or regulatory milestones
    • TLRY will have the right to receive up to 49% of the net revenue from cannabis products bearing ABG brands, with a guaranteed minimum payment of up to US$10 million annually for 10 years, subject to certain commercial and/or regulatory milestones.
    • TLRY will be the preferred supplier of active cannabinoid ingredients for such products
    • ABG has a global retail footprint of over 100,000 points of sale and more than 4,500 branded freestanding stores and shop-in-shops

December 19, 2018: TLRY + AB InBev – up to $100 million JV in non-alcohol cannabis beverages

    • the partnership is limited to Canada for now;
    • AB InBev’s participation will be through its subsidiary Labatt Breweries of Canada (up to $50 million);
    • Tilray’s participation will be through its Canadian adult-use cannabis subsidiary High Park Company (up to $50 million)

December 18, 2018: TLRY + Novartis (Sandoz) – medical cannabis

    • this is a global version of a previously signed agreement focused in Canada;
    • the merit of the agreement is about supply (TLRY) & distribute (Sandoz) in the healthcare industry;
    • don’t think the margin would be high for TLRY; but if they develop new co-branded cannabis products, could be interesting

December 7, 2018: CRON + Altria – USD $1.8 Billion (CAD $2.4 Billion) investment

    • the deal gives Altria a 45% equity stake in CRON and an additional 10% ownership interest through warrants if exercised in full;
    • shares are purchased @C$16.25/shr;
    • warrants are issued at an exercise price of C$19.00/shr, exercisable over four years from the closing date
    • Altria will have the right to nominate 4 directors, including 1 independent director, expanding CRON’s Board of Directors from 5 to 7

August 15, 2018: CGC + Constellation Brands – $5 billion CAD ($4 billion USD) investment and beverages

    • the agreement is the largest deal in this space and is a significant equity investment, after which Constellation Brands will increase its ownership in CGC to ~38%, including existing ownership (9.9% in October 2017) and warrants
    • shares are purchased @ C$48.60/shr, a 51.2% premium to the previous closing price
    • new warrants are issued @ C$50.40/shr; if all exercised (existing and new), its ownership would exceed 50 percent
    • Constellation Brands’ ownership in CGC | Source: CGC Investor Presentation
    • Constellation will nominate 4 directors to Canopy Growth’s 7-member Board of Directors
    • A detailed presentation

September 17, 2018: Rumor but no agreement: ACB + Coca-Cola

    • Sep-18: Aurora said there is no agreement: “The Company does confirm that it engages in exploratory discussions with industry participants from time to time,” Aurora said in a press release.”
    • Sep-18, Coke’s statement following the report: “We have no interest in marijuana or cannabis. Along with many others in the beverage industry, we are closely watching the growth of non-psychoactive CBD as an ingredient in functional wellness beverages around the world. The space is evolving quickly. No decisions have been made at this time.”

March 13, 2019: ACB got a strategic advisor Nelson Peltz

    • he could bring some industry collaborations/investments that others had done, while granted options to purchase ~20 million ACB shares
    • Mr. Peltz (through Trian) held large positions or had board seats on many companies such as PepsiCo, Dr Pepper Snapple, Procter & Gamble, Kraft Foods, Heinz, Mondelez