Macau gaming – why bother?

Concerns for those names.

1/ what’s the long-run prospect for gambling? 

seems that the rich shall just go to Singapore etc.; too risky in Macau

mass market? why would the PRC gov wants gambling to grow?

for certain people (mainland gov officials etc.), it’s hard to go to Macau.

there is the licensing renewal issue every 10 years

2/ luxury shopping?

near-term most Chinese middle class families are still not in the mode of spending on luxury stuff.

shopping in tier-one cities like Shanghai, Beijing etc. is very convenient, although a bit pricer; if it’s in the $3k range, there’s not much difference (say 10% cheaper so saving $300 in shopping, but need to spend on flights & hotel)

the rich can go to Japan for shopping for weak Yen.

3/ food?

Portuguese egg tart? it’s very good indeed!

but you can try the KFC version of Portuguese egg tart in China; it’s about the same.

How much should ByteDance spend on data centers?

ByteDance has deep wallet: in 2023, it generated $40bn+ EBITDA.

To compare, Meta had over $60bn in EBITDA during the same period.

Meta will grow to $80bn ebitda in 2024, while capex guidance is as much as $40bnhalf of its EBITDA.

Assuming half of Meta’s capex goes to data centers -> $20bn. And half of that goes to GPUs > $10bn; building out those data centers etc. will be $5-10bn for Meta.

ByteDance is also growing, say at a similar rate as Meta, so $50bn+ EBITDA in 2024. And assume ByteDance invests at a similar ratio as Meta, then it needs to spend ~$25bn in capex, or ~$12bn (or 60% of $20bn) for data centers$6bn  for GPUs, and $3-6bn to build out data centers etc.

An underrated growth driver for Spotify

Not sure if it’s been widely seen as a growth driver, but Spotify is actually not blocked in China!

Yes, you can use Spotify w/o VPN in China, including podcasts.

If you are on a short trip to China, you can use Spotify for 14 days (no payment needed, just regular account). This corresponds to the visa-free 15 day stay in China for several countries – that list is expanding.

If you are staying in mainland China longer, you need a premium account. With Spotify Premium in mainland China, you don’t need VPN.

This is rare – for any “foreign” internet service provider to provide service in its original format.

How will Elon Musk do? (Trump trade)

While EV is not popular, Musk did pivot to Republican by moving headquarters of Tesla, and more recently, SpaceX and X.com.

Musk also donates to Trump.

But problem is that his companies are not something Trump likes.

Besides electric vehicles, Optimum, which can replace factory workers in the future, is probably not what Trump wants. Trump wants blue-collar jobs in the US.

Plus, although Musk bought Twitter and lifted the ban on Trump’s account, Trump hasn’t been active on X.com besides a post in Aug 2023.

On top of these, Musk might be too close to China, which would be frowned upon.

If Uber is doing self-driving

Uber Mobility had ~$70bn gross booking in 2023, and recorded $20bn revenue.

Drivers should earn ~70%, or $49bn, as Uber Mobility’s revenue margin is ~29%.

Based on drivers’ feedbacks, it seems that net earnings after expenses are roughly 2/3.

Then what self-driving can replace is 2/3 of that $49bn, or $32bn per year.

This doesn’t include UberEats (Delivery).

Uber had about $3.6bn operating cash flow in 2023; it made ~$2bn adj. EBITDA after SBC.

That $32bn net “savings” can lift Uber’s profitability by 10-fold.


What’s missing?

The additional insurance needed for self-driving as software can make mistakes?

The job losses around the world?


If can solve self-driving at night, it would be great! We human beings need to sleep.


Click to access uber-investor-update.pdf

China’s soccer teams and their sponsors

It might not be that surprising, but many sponsors of major China local (provincial) soccer clubs in the Chinese Super League didn’t do well after naming the team.

Dalian Wanda and Dalian Shide were the names for Dalian’s soccer club. Dalian is only a city in Liaoning, but Dalian Shide was a strong team in the Chinese Super League. Dalian Aerbin is another club in Liaoning; the boss tried to acquire Dalian Shide.

More people might have heard about Evergrande. Evergrande purchased Guangzhou soccer club in 2010. Guangzhou Evergrande won seven consecutive Chinese Super League titles from 2011 to 2017.

Similar stories could be found for teams across cities/provinces, e.g. Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, etc.

I am not sure if this is common globally. I can think about FTX, which sponsored the Mercedes F1 team and Golden State Warriors. But it’s not something consistently happening on the global stage.

Maybe it’s due to the business model. Property developers were very profitable and can benefit from broader audience with the clubs’ naming. Usually male watch those soccer matches more often, and those who have time and money to watch sports could be wealthier and thus homebuyers.

Search’s problem in China

Search is a two side product.

You need to provide that “10 blue links” to serve consumers. Hopefully consumers can find what they need (have the answer) as fast as they can (no need to go to the next 10 search results).

You also need to serve the advertisers to market or grow their business.

Baidu seems to be challenged in both ways.

Sometimes, the most up-to-date information (with details) is found in Xiaohongshu and Douyin, where users upload tons of posts and videos. User-generated content can carry much more info than official news, as official news is well controlled by gov in China. There are basically not news other than official news.

For business owners, Baidu doesn’t offer much growth. Merchants shall spend more on e-commerce sites directly (which was mainly search-driven before recommendation rose). Douyin and Xiaohongshu may help “create the desire to buy” that search can’t. Some services can be banned from making advertisement (like after-school education). For some other businesses (toB etc.) – Moutai (liquor) is a more efficient sales spending. More importantly, search results are mostly webpages; but webpages are less useful in China vs. the US – a Weibo Account and a WeChat Public Account is more useful.


This actually leads to another interesting thing – I feel independent websites are dying in China. They are not important at all. Maybe China is preferring mobile over PC due to real name, and mobile phone number is the easiest way to fulfill that requirements, but websites don’t necessarily need a mobile phone number. This topic should be explored more.

Very good podcast on Visa by Acquired

Link: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/visa

Three major pieces of technology

1/ authorization network letting banks talk to banks

2/ automated clearing house

3/ digitized point of the transaction


Very interesting timing of the IPO (2008) that gives selling banks an important lifeline.


A fair problem raised – this “regressive tax” on transactions as merchants raise price for all customers but rewards are higher for premium customers.