Beyond Cars – Bike & Scooter Sharing in Age of Ride-Hailing

共享自行车已经进入市场很多年,模式上在近年有多方面突破;另一方面,以 Birds 为首的美国 scooter 的热潮从 2017 年开始迅速蔓延,之前的共享自行车公司也找到了美国新的突破口,毕竟相比于中国自行车的普及和流行,美国自行车一直处于出行需求的角落(有安全监管、道路等因素)。

大多数共享自行车和共享 scooter 诞生之初,就内涵了与 uber/lyft 相近的模式和基因,又同时在解决一个大问题的不同局部。它们早晚会相遇是公认的事实。

各自 2019 年 IPO 计划的临近,出于公司定位和战略说明的角度,以及财务角度,uber 和 lyft 的出手之快出乎一些意料(相比于市场的成熟度和发展时间),却也极其合理。这篇 blog 主要关于 lyft 的收购。

2018 年 4 月,uber 率先宣布了第一笔交易,$100 – 200 mn 收购 JUMP Bike。

JUMP Bike | Source: uber.com/ride/uber-bike/

2018 年 6 月,有报道 Lyft 在寻求 $250 mn 收购 Motivate(旗下拥有纽约的 Citi Bike 和加州的 Ford GoBike 等);uber 也尝试参与,竞价收购,最后 7 月初由 Lyft 拿下
– Motivate 2017 rev. $100 mn, ~ half coming from sponsorship
– Motivate has ~30k bikes, operating in 8 US cities – Citi Bike (New York), Ford GoBike (San Francisco Bay area), Divvy (Chicago), Blue Bikes (Boston metro area), Capital Bikeshare (Washington, D.C. metro area), BIKETOWN (Portland metro area), CoGo (Columbus, Ohio), and Nice Ride (Minneapolis)
– 纽约的 Citi Bike 用户数约 15 万;For GoBike 17 年6 月与 Ford 达成合作正式 launch,截至 18 年 1 月用户数近 1 万
– Motivate has an advantage of exclusive deal terms with cities including NYC, SF, among others
– Motivate’s bikes are dock-based, which was an old model but fit with cities like NYC
– Unionized workers (~600) are a major issue, which was not included in the acquisition

收购后,Lyft 将投入 $100 mn 发展 Citi Bike,五年内自行车数量增加两倍将达近 4 万

Citi Bike | Source: citibikenyc.com
Citi Bike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: citibikenyc.com/pricing

在湾区,尽管开始时 Motivate 有 exclusive 合同,但由于纽约和 SF 有一个区别在于 SF 很多上下坡,在曼哈顿适用的自行车在 SF 的使用场景大幅缩减,电动助力自行车 (e-bike) 的需求凸显。这给了其它 bike-sharing 公司一个绝佳的机会,以 e-bike 的形式抢进 SF 市场,绕开 Motivate 的排他性条款,比如 Social Bicycles。随后 SF 与 Motivate 达成和解,基本算允许了其它电动自行车的试验,尽管有数量限制。

Ford GoBike 在今年 1 月展示了 e-bike 之后,于 4 月在 SF 正式 launch 了电动自行车。

Ford GoBike @ SAP Center, San Jose | Source: fordgobike instagram
Ford GoBike Plus with pedal assist (电动助力),服务 SF 市场,18 年 4 月 正式 launch,首批 250 辆 | Source: fordgobike.com/plus
Ford GoBike Pricing Plan_Dec 2018 | Source: fordgobike.com/pricing

18 年 1 月,SF 的第一个无桩 bike-sharing permit, 250 辆,给了 JUMP (formerly Social Bicycle,见上文),JUMP 自行车是全电动 (和 scooter,也是电动)。

这也是 uber CEO 后来解释 JUMP 收购时一直强调的每个城市/地区的不同,需要 city-by-city 地考虑。uber 选择从 SF 开始发力。

Lyft 选择了更高的起点。Motivate 确实是体量更大、更成熟的 bike-sharing 公司。加之 e-bike 的额外成本,以及 permit 的数量显示,仅依靠 JUMP 或许会让 uber 在这个局部战场输给 Lyft。

2017 total bike-sharing trips taken in millions | Source: nacto.org

加之 scooter 的起飞(全部为电动),尤其在加州主要城市的流行,不出意外,uber 在寻求另一起收购,一起这个领域决定性的收购,Uber said to be negotiating a multibillion-dollar takeover of scooter-sharing startup

Consolidation 不仅没有缺席,而且会来得更快。


Read More On…

Ohio Accepting Cryptocurrency for Tax – Pure Personal Interest or A Move to Future?

Ohio is becoming the first state to accept crypto as tax payments on https://ohiocrypto.com/.

The move is made by Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel. Born in Sep. 1977, he had made several moves after being elected as Ohio State Treasurer in Dec. 2010, including OhioCheckbook.com that posts all state spending information on the internet for better government transparency.

The current cryptocurrency accepted is Bitcoin, with more to come. A third party cryptocurrency payment processor, BitPay, will serve between taxpayers and Ohio State Treasury, so that the former will pay crypto and the latter will receive dollar.

Although the State Treasurer himself is said to be an enthusiast of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, it might as well be seen as a state-level move to differentiate itself and embrace the future tech world. According to TechCrunch, Ohio has other moves to become tech-friendly including a technology hub forming in Columbus, home to one of the largest venture capital funds in the Midwest, Drive Capital. And Cleveland (the city once called “the mistake on the lake”) is trying to remake itself in cryptocurrency’s image with a new drive to rebrand the city as “Blockland”, etc. Columbus also reported last year that its Smart Columbus program had an expanded $417 million in resources to turn Columbus into the testing ground for intelligent-transportation systems.

Politics and future development is more interconnected than ever. Policy makers are becoming smarter and seeing/learning the tech future as others. “Policy infrastructure” played an important role in the past and will continue to do so. Each city/state may have a specialization and leveraging its hub effect. Blockchain is one of those “specializations” that many are going after. China and US are no different in terms of this strategy of development.

An Often-Ignored Factor Affecting Wine Industry – Global Warming

In wine’s history, we human began to enjoy/produce those fermented grape beverages some 6,000-9,000 years ago.

Monrovia
Cabernet Sauvignon Grape

The well-known classification system for Bordeaux wines started in 1855 by Napoleon III using their producers’ names.  A château (a french house/castle) usually gives its name to the wine produced in its neighborhood.  The system has five levels for red wine, with Premiers Crus being the best, which now includes 5 châteaux.

winewordsandvideotape.com
Château Lafite Rothschild

But after nearly 200 years, things have changed fundamentally, e.g. global warming among many others.

Wine is essentially a pre-industrial-age agricultural invention. Grapes are inherently affected by climate changes (including not only temperature, but also drought for example).

What we deemed best in 1850s should be different from those in today’s league table.

Source: Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites

Due to global warming, the best grape varieties and growing locations for wine can hardly stay the same by the end of 21st century. Some have predicted that average global temperature could rise by 11.5° F this century if no human interventions to mitigate the causes.

A relatively extreme prediction in a 2013 study claims that wines from Burgundy, Napa Valley and other premium regions, will disappear within the next 50 years (and blue regions are future suitable areas to grow grapes).

Global change in viticulture suitability | Source: PNAS

However, wine to some extent is like art works. Values of wine aren’t mostly depending on how it tastes; many other factors such as traditions or experience are making it a more complex industry.

Visit Calistoga

While similar to other industries that the established or incumbents are not willing to/refuse to change, new opportunities will rely on new vineyards/newcomers and those choose to expand or create new brands.


Read more on:

Beyond Meat Go IPO and Non-animal Food Trend

From Vegetarians to non-animal meat-like food, we are entering an age of synthetic foods going mainstream.

Beyond Meat – story and IPO

Beyond Meat (BYNd), a start-up who made the first 100% plant-based burger, filed IPO with SEC recently and will become the first of its kind to trade on Nasdaq.

The founder grew up in Maryland with a family farm business. The company was founded in 2009, with initial operation, and manufacturing in Maryland. The foundational technology was licensed from two researchers in nearby universities. And initially, the company built its presence with Whole Foods Market in mid-Atlantic.

Beyond Meat was funded by venture capitals, including Kleiner Perkins (16.1% pre-IPO stake), Obvious Ventures, among others, totaling $140+ million before IPO. The latest round valued the company at $550 million last year.

The IPO filing indicates a $100 million raise. Currently, the most important product is the Beyond Burger, selling through various grocery chains and other channels, representing 71% of 2017 sales.

Beyond Beyond Meat

Within this space, the most famous startup might be Impossible Foods, sold in many restaurants including The Counter. It raised $114 million this year from investors including Temasek.

Other initiatives include the new plant-protein-based drink by Starbucks, although not a popular offering.

I think for sure in the future food market, the overall percentage of plant-based food will increase and animal-killing will be decreased by a lot. Whether eventually most of the food will be entirely synthesized remains a question for now.

At least in 30-50 years, I think the benefits of non-plant-based food are non-obvious. But the non-animal trend will be more influential and be part of everyone’s life, not just for vegetarians.

A Great Symmetry?

A random thought here…

San Francisco = New York City (Manhattan)| in terms of the central hub in west/east, financial and corporate presence, high rise apartments

San Jose (South Bay) = Philadelphia | in terms of specialized industries, lead in Information Age (semiconductor) & lead in Industrial Age

Los Angeles + San Diego = Orlando + Miami + Key west | In terms of weather, travel and entertainment industries, life styles

So California is a semi-country.

In the Age of Services Bundling

The recent departure of Google Cloud’s CEO leads to many discussions on the business models. Specifically, Google Cloud service is usually co-marketed with other enterprise services provided by Google. For businesses that rely heavily on Google’s internet advertising, it feels a combination of a natural need of using its Cloud and an external soft-pressure from Alphabet.

US enterprise cloud business is mainly comprised by 3 companies – Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Amazon is famous for its 7-year head start. However, Microsoft Azure has surpassed AWS in revenue for the first time in Q2 this year.

[Some thoughts on cloud business: with its dominating position in enterprise market, and its Office suite going online with subscription model, Microsoft is definitely capitalizing a lot on the bundling with Azure cloud services. Google definitely wanted to replicate the business model, but found itself lack of comparable presence in the enterprise market – e.g. direct relationships, sales reps. That was probably the reason Alphabet brought in Diane Greene, co-founder of VMWare, in Nov. 2015 with all the enterprise connections and experiences behind her.]

The bundling + subscription is everywhere. Amazon Prime is a bundling, with original unlimited free two-day shipping to Amazon Music/Video/Fresh/Now, etc.; Netflix is essentially a bundling – with some core contents plus other programs; AT&A Direct TV is another example; Square is bundling terminals (POS), employee management…

It is so prevalent that I would like to say that instead of “software eating X”, it is “bundling X and just subscribe together”.

Capitalizing on Fear for Anti-Competition

Following up on the previous post of WSJ buying ads on Twitter, I found an underlying trend to explain it and other similar situations – companies are afraid of the accusations that they are preventing or reducing competitions, especially in the tech industry where network effects is extremely strong and “winners take all”.

Just another example here – Amazon Music putting ads on YouTube.

Fundamentally, there are similar laws around the globe focusing on competition, anti-monopoly and antitrust. Twitter doesn’t want to make the case that it is discouraging other medias’ ads; YouTube doesn’t want to make the case that it is discouraging other music apps’ ads.

It has more profound meanings other than ads. Google was fined in Europe for bundling Android in June with its other services, reducing competitions in services such as search. Going way back, Microsoft’s antitrust case in 2001 is probably the most famous one – a settlement was reached for its bundling of Windows and IE (may discourage other web browsers).

This concept can be expanded into many fields. And the fear of being seen as anti-competition is deeply rooted in every tech company.

We should see that Apple should welcome YouTube and Amazon Music so that it won’t be charged as anti-competition in music distribution. Apple Music is born with a market share limit.

Other examples – Apple should keep Fitbit with its Apple Watch, Chrome should keep other search engines with Google Search, Amazon should keep those third-party items with its AmazonBasic lines, etc… Uber should keep Lyft, Intel should keep AMD. Disney should be careful for its contents and distribution channels, so does AT&T…

There are many more examples. And this will last in the foreseeable future, maybe until ordinary antitrust law can’t handle new norms. Or, it may lead to excessive capitalization on the law. Basically, the other side will use antitrust as an very effective weapon. It won’t be a commonly used weapon among small companies due to high legal costs and lack of resources to maintain big market share. But it may be used more often by relatively big companies to expand into new fields with meaningful presence, building into conglomerates in the new era.

Stretched Valuation in Ride-Hailing – Uber’s financials and others

Uber reported some 2018 Q3 quarterly financial numbers on Wednesday.

As similar ride-hailing companies across the globe may go public in the coming 2019-2020, here I compiled some publicly available numbers together.

While Uber’s  revenue growth is slowing down, at least it can target a 2019 full year revenue over $15 billion with 25%+ growth rate (an implied valuation multiple of 8x revenue).

Similar for Lyft – at least it needs an annualized revenue of $3 billion (an implied valuation multiple of 10x revenue), which means ~$750 million per quarter. It seems easier to achieve to me in Lyft’s case.

And Didi… its take rate from GMV is said to be much lower than Uber’s (~23%). Assuming a GMV of ¥120 billion in 2019 and a take rate of 10%, Didi will achieve an annual run rate of ~$1,700 million. Then it will be valued at 50x revenue multiple for a $85 billion valuation…

No comments on specific company. But overall, this space seems to have stretched valuation.

However, some other factors need to be counted in, such as low risk of competition (the market structure is mature or foreseeable I would say), the definite future of transportation-as-a-service (with growing market share in overall transportation), upcoming initiatives (e.g. autonomous car services, autonomous on-demand truck, etc.)

It seems that certain future is coming for sure in many investors’ eyes. Or they are just made to believe in it.


Read more on…

While Amazon’s HQ2 in Spotlight, A Review on Facebook’s Real Estate Expansion

Crystal City near Washington was reported a few days ago by Bezos’ Washington Post as the choice for Amazon’s HQ2; only after 2 days, medias reported that it’s going to be split into two cities.

While the result will be announced soon, I think it is worth to review tech firms’ real estate moves by looking at Facebook, Google, etc. This post will focus on Facebook.


Facebook’s original office (since 2004) was in downtown Palo Alto on Emerson Street. It had 5 or 6 offices, one conference room, and a large common area.

Source: Daily Mail, NY Times, Redux, eyevine
Source: Business Insider

The following expansion in Palo Alto including leases on S. California Avenue and 1050 Page Mill Road.

Facebook moved to Menlo Park in 2011, the old campus of Sun (acquired by Oracle) – an 11 building, 57 acre, 1 million square foot property on the Bayfront Expressway. The purchase was a sale-leaseback with a 15 year long-term lease, with an option to purchase the campus after five years. There were no tax breaks included in the deal with Menlo Park. Facebook has also bought a 22 acre building connected to the campus by a tunnel. It was rumored that Facebook had been considering a leaseback of the property, with the purchase being assigned to a state pension fund. A 15 year leaseback was confirmed today, with the option to buy after 5 years. [TechCrunch]

Image result for facebook 1 hacker way oracle
Source: e-Discovery Team

Besides the move in Silicon Valley, in December 2010, it leased two floors with up to 150,000 square feet at 335 Madison Avenue in New York City, accommodating up to 600 people. It began construction on a $450 million data center in Forest City, North Carolina in 2010 after the first one announced earlier that year in Prineville, Oregon. Facebook also announced a 500-person office in Hyderabad, India, as the first office in mainland Asia, investing up to $150 million to the 50,000 square foot facility.

The number of employees start to explode since 2010.


In a 2013 report, FB has the project, called Anton Menlo, cost an estimated $120 million. It will sprawl over 10 acres of land off Highway 101 in Menlo Park, California. The 630,000 square-foot Facebook town will be walking and biking distance to Facebook’s headquarters. There will be 35 studios, 208 one-bedroom apartments, 139 two-bedroom apartments, and for top Facebook employees, there will be 12 three-bedroom apartments. [Business Insider]

Facebook West Campus
Source: Business Insider
And another one. That's Haven Avenue in front.
Source: Business Insider

 

In 2015, FB acquired a 56-acre industrial park immediately south of its current Menlo Park headquarters. The purchase of Prologis Inc.’s 21-building Menlo Science & Technology Park — which industry sources pegged at roughly $400 million.  [Silicon Valley Business Journal]


In 2016, Facebook goes from rent to own in Menlo Park in $202 million deal.

Image result for facebook 1 hacker way oracle
Source: Silicon Valley Business Journal

During 2017-2018, FB has opened offices and hired at a blistering pace, with enormous new leases in Sunnyvale, Mountain View and Fremont. This month, Facebook leased all the office space in San Francisco’s new 43-story Park Tower, vaulting it into the ranks of the largest tech tenants in San Francisco. Instagram, a major Facebook subsidiary, recently moved 200 employees into another San Francisco office tower. [San Francisco Chronicle]

In June 2018 reports, Facebook has leased an additional 754,000 square feet for offices in Fremont.


In 2017, FB said it will two more Prineville data centers, followed up by a report of $750 million in Sep. 2018, bringing total investments to $2 billion and total footprint to 3.2 million sqft. The expansion will take nearly two years and employ 1,500 construction workers at peak.

Facebook Data Center in Prineville, August 14, 2015 | Source: Thomas Boyd, oregonlive.com

 

Reference / Read More on…

Global Warming and Lobsters

Here is a perfect follow-up on last week’s blog of Global Warming and Wine.

Clearly, global warming will not only drive vineyard northward, but also lobsters. And it is happening now as animals can move freely.

Source: Reuters

[The following is from Reuter’s special report on The Great Lobster Rush]

Lobster industry was a nautical gold rush. Two generations ago, the entire New England coast had a thriving lobster industry.

Today, lobster catches have collapsed in southern New England, and the only state with a significant harvest is north in Maine, where the seafood practically synonymous with the state has exploded.

Now lobsters keep running to the north and going deeper in the water. Maine might be in trouble after another 5-15 years.

Rising temperatures along the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean will force American lobsters (H. americanus) farther offshore and into more northern waters, a new study finds. Credit: Natalie Renier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

That’s happening not only to lobster, but literally to all marine species.

In the U.S. North Atlantic, fisheries data show that at least 85 percent of the nearly 70 federally tracked species have shifted north or deeper, or both, in recent years when compared to the norm over the past half-century. And the most dramatic of species shifts have occurred in the last 10 or 15 years.

Summer flounder’s center of species | Source: NOOA/Oceanadapt, Rugster U., Reuters

Similar findings in a map of predicted migration – marine species are moving northward to colder waters.

Source: Pew

Read more on: