Lobster industry was a nautical gold rush. Two generations ago, the entire New England coast had a thriving lobster industry.
Today, lobster catches have collapsed in southern New England, and the only state with a significant harvest is north in Maine, where the seafood practically synonymous with the state has exploded.
Now lobsters keep running to the north and going deeper in the water. Maine might be in trouble after another 5-15 years.
Rising temperatures along the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean will force American lobsters (H. americanus) farther offshore and into more northern waters, a new study finds. Credit: Natalie Renier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
That’s happening not only to lobster, but literally to all marine species.
In the U.S. North Atlantic, fisheries data show that at least 85 percent of the nearly 70 federally tracked species have shifted north or deeper, or both, in recent years when compared to the norm over the past half-century. And the most dramatic of species shifts have occurred in the last 10 or 15 years.
Summer flounder’s center of species | Source: NOOA/Oceanadapt, Rugster U., Reuters
Similar findings in a map of predicted migration – marine species are moving northward to colder waters.
Starbucks posted a stellar earnings result today, with net revenue at record level of $6.3bn, beating expectations in many aspects.
Starbucks up after hours with earnings beats | Source: CNBC
While a single beat doesn’t indicate a new stage of growth, in the long run there are three issues I think matter the most and should be watched closely.
1 | Problem: Frappuccino’s decline
It was an problem Starbucks facing over the years. People are leaning towards healthier products (at least a very obvious trend in Cali), which usually means less sugar and less calories. That’s a problem for Starbucks’ Frappuccino, as explicitly mentioned in CEO’s presentation in June.
How did/will Starbucks address this? Product Mix & Innovation
Strategy a) Big push for healthier product lines – Nitro Cold Brew & Refresher series etc.
Starbucks Nitro Cold Brew | Source: Starbucks
– Nitro Cold Brew “is expected to be available in nearly 1,500 stores in 26 markets by the end of 2017″ (SBUX Jul. 2017 Press Release) -> “[Starbucks is] accelerating this platform to more than 2,800 stores by the close of fiscal year 2018, up to more than 6,000 stores by year-end fiscal year 2019″ (SBUX Q3 Earnings Call Transcript). A 4x availability expansion for cold brew in 3 years.
– Several new products in the Refresher category were introduced, e.g. “Dragonfruit” introduced Jun. 2018, “Pink Drink” introduced last year, etc.
Dragon Fruit | Source: StarbucksPink Drink | Source: Starbucks
Strategy b) Instagramable & limited edition within the Frappuccino category
– Unicorn Frappuccino (Apr. 19-23, 2017), Zombie Frappuccino (Oct. 26-31, 2017), Christmas Tree Frappuccino (Dec. 7 – 11, 2017), Crystal Ball Frappuccino (Mar. 22-26, 2018), Witch’s Brew Frappuccino (starting Oct. 25 for a limited time while supplies last)… among many others.
– Plus, Starbucks’ new Frappucino recipe has fewer calories and less sugar, part of its efforts to reduce sugar by 25% by 2020.
Starbucks Rewards could serve a similar role as Amazon Prime. In past last 3 month, loyalty program accounts for 14% of all transactions and US loyalty members contributed 40% of US sales. That’s what happened in the Amazon case, where its Prime members out-spend non-members significantly.
Digital relationship makes it easier to incentivize purchases, market new products/initiatives, bring in more collaborations (e.g. Spotify, Pokémon GO), expand membership offerings and more.
Starbuck’s push for afternoon consumptions is also facilitated by the digitalized promotions.
The room to grow digital relationships is still large – currently 15.3 million global active members, only representing ~22% of its 70 million global customers base. “Additionally, drive-thru, out-the-window and Mobile Order and Pay combined grew to more than 50% of the way customers are ordering, up more than 10 percentage points in just two years” according to COO.
3 | Opportunity – China Growth
It’s more debatable on Starbucks’ China future. Just want to highlight a few sure things.
Starbucks took full ownership in China East & opened flagship Roastery in Shanghai in 2017 – definitely the right moves here.
China’s coffee consumption will explode, even considering major cities alone. Younger generations will consume more coffee and they will represent an increasing proportion of the overall urban population.
China coffee consumption potential | Source: Starbucks 6/19 Presentation
Coffee even has a role to play in China’s GDP growth by boosting workers’ average productivity and the “culture” of working overtime.
Herding effect is stronger in China and “Instagramable & Limited” strategy may provide better outcomes if properly implemented.
Other things worth noticing – Starbucks’ food, packaged goods with Nestlé, next-generation store design, coffee supplies, SKU outside the Starbucks’ core products, etc…
提案方包括 Trillium Asset Management (53,000 shares)，以及纽约市 Comptroller 和三个州的 State Treasurer – Illinois (190,712 shares) , Rhode Island (168,230 shares) and Pennsylvania (38,737 shares), New York City Pension Funds (4.5 million shares)，大约近 500 万股（占 0.2%）。
更为人所熟知第二个基本面变化 – Alexander Bell 在 1876 年发明了电话，之后成立 Bell Telephone Co.（后更名 American Bell；合并 Western Electric 作为其设备生产业务，其中 1883 年的一个部门即为后来的 Bell Lab）。
AT&T 1885 年由 Bell 等人成立，以长距离的电话网络从纽约起家，1892 年（从纽约）联通芝加哥，1915 年扩展至旧金山。AT&T 1899 年成为 American Bell 的母公司，由 American Bell 的人执掌。现如今的 AT&T 由之前被反垄断拆分的公司之一 Southwestern Bell 收购合并而来。
