Airbnb’s IPO Plan & Capital Allocation

Airbnb did well in the past quarters before 2020 and doesn’t have much concerns for cash. It was one of the most financially healthy startup.

Actually, its full year earnings turned positive as early as 2017, when it generated earnings of about $100m while bookings grew around 150%. It became profitable in the second half of 2016.

In 2018, it made $93 million in profit on $2.6 billion in revenue.

More recently, it took in more than $1 billion in revenue in 2019Q2.

However, Airbnb racked up a $322 million net loss for the nine months through September, down from a $200 million profit a year earlier.

In 2019Q3 alone, Airbnb increased its revenue to $1.65 billion in the third quarter, up almost $400 million from a year earlier, one of the people said. But costs rose faster. Net profit for the quarter was $266 million – less than the $337 million profit for the same period in 2018

All sorts of reports said Airbnb is preparing to go IPO in 2020… until coronavirus hit.

When WSJ reported in Feb, it says Airbnb’s business in China is currently down about 80% compared with last year.

Now as travel industry worldwide is hit, Aribnb total revenue could decline 70-90% and might have cash flow problem.

It now has raised debt and cancelled summer internships.

In early April, Airbnb raised $1 billion in debt and equity from private equity firms Silver Lake and Sixth Street Partners.

Last week, Airbnb raised another $1 billion in debt. Fidelity, T Rowe Price and Blackrock are participating along with Apollo and Oaktree.

While Airbnb should be fine and solvent, how its revenue gonna recover & how to show its growth rate will be an IPO headache.

Occidental Petroleum (3): Sweetened Bid, Carl Icahn

The Sweetened Winning Bid

On May 5, 2019, as part of the financing plan, Occidental entered into an agreement with Total to sell Anadarko’s African assets for for $8.8 billion , contingent on successfully completing the acquisition of Anadarko.

The assets to be sold to Total represent approximately 6% of the expected net production and approximately 7% of the cash flow after capital expenditures of Occidental in 2020 pro forma for the acquisition of Anadarko.

At the same time, Occidental increased the cash portion of its $76-per-share offer to a level that would allow it to make a bid that does not require the approval of its shareholders. Under the new terms, the offer comprises $59 in cash and 0.2934 shares of Occidental common stock per share of Anadarko. (78% Cash and 22% Stock)

This modification (of not requiring a shareholder vote) would become one of the major arguments brought by Carl Icahn later on.

Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental, also explains in her letter to Anadarko’s Board,

Our revised proposal does not require an Occidental shareholder vote, which has been repeatedly cited as the explanation for why you previously chose Chevron’s $65 offer over our $76 offer

Plus, the $1 billion breakup fee would be borne by Occidental after the acquisition.

The bidding war didn’t escalate.

On May 9, 2019, Occidental won the battle for Anadarko as Chevron exited bidding.

“Costs and capital discipline always matter,” Mr. Wirth said. “An increased offer would have eroded value to our shareholders.” Shares in Chevron rose 3.1% on Thursday. Occidental’s stock fell 6.4%, while Anadarko’s shares declined 3.2%.

Shareholders’ Discontent & Carl Icahn Coming

Along the bidding process, on the day (April 30) that Occidental secured Berkshire’s money, T. Rowe Price Group, one of the largest shareholders of Occidental Petroleum, says it opposes the energy company’s proposed merger with Anadarko Petroleum.

We think there is significant execution risk with the Anadarko deal and it would increase Occidental’s financial leverage significantly as well.

– John Linehan, manager at T Rowe Price Equity Income fund

On May 3, Bloomberg reported that Carl Icahn had built a small stake in Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Some investors expressed their intention to vote against approving Occidental’s Board.

At Occidental’s annual meeting in Houston on Friday (May 10), a proposal cutting the percentage of shareholders required to call a special meeting (from 25% to 15%) was backed by investors speaking for 60% of the shares voted, in defiance of opposition from Occidental’s board.

On May 30, Carl Icahn sued Occidenta over its acquisition of Anadarko, calling its $38 billion deal to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. “fundamentally misguided”.

Icahn argus that the Purchase is a Levered Bet on the Price of Oil, as Occidental’s debt (and debt-like preferred stock) increases from approximately $10 billion to over $45 billion.

The Icahn parties estimate that if the price of oil declines to approximately $45 per barrel or below for an extended period of time, Occidental might be forced to cut the common dividend. The warrants given to Berkshire alone were worth approximately $1.2 billion on the day the preferred deal was announced. And the singular focus to win the Anadarko bid at any cost prevented Occidental from
maximizing value in its sale of Anadarko’s African assets. [Court Document]

However, the complaint was to seek certain books and records relating to the Anadarko acquisition, etc. And eventually, in September 2019, the court ruled in favor of Occidental.

On June 26, in a preliminary copy, Icahn called for a special shareholder meeting where he plans to oust and replace four Occidental directors and change the company’s charter through a stockholder consent solicitation to prevent it from ever engineering a similar takeover again. [Icahn Solicitation Statement – Preliminary] [Icahn Solicitation Statement – Definitive]

On July 22, Icahn published an open letter to Occidental shareholders, four days after the definitive proxy statement was filed.

On August 8, Occidental announced that it has completed the acquisition of Anadarko.

[Icahn’s second and third open letters on August 13 and August 28]

In the third letter, Icahn opposed the two new board members (not in Icahn’s slate) proposed by Occidental.

On November 8, in his fourth open letter,

Earlier this year we owned over 33 million shares of OXY, but recently we reduced the size of our investment.  I still own almost 23 million shares, valued at almost $900 million, but this has become a very risky investment and without changing the incumbent Board and potentially the CEO, and in the absence of accountability for the OxyDarko Disaster, I am very concerned.

We fully intend to run a proxy fight, and if elected, work to right this teetering ship.

Occidental Petroleum (2): Topping Chevron’s Bid For Anadarko, Buffett’s Preferred Investment

Occidental Bids Anadarko Petroleum (APC)

Having grown into the No.1 operator in Permian in 2018Q4, Occidental definitely don’t want give that title back to Chevron.

While acquiring Anadarko is an add-on for Chevron, it’s much more financially challenging for Occidental.

Source: Chevron

Occidental produces at a similar scale as Anadarko. So it’s presumably an acquisition that would double its size.

But Occidental moved decisively. It offered $76.00 per share for Anadarko on April 24, 12 days after Chevron’s announcement, with ~17% premium over the $65 per share agreement. Taking into account the stock price movement, Occidental’s deal presents a ~20% premium.

Occidental’s offer also has more cash component (50/50) – $38.00 in cash and 0.6094 shares of Occidental common stock per Anadarko share, valuing Anadarko at $57 billion.

Occidental also argues a $3.5 billion free cash flow improvements through synergies and capital reduction, compared with Chevron’s $2 billion / year synergies.

Occidental actually tried to acquire Anadarko earlier in April, according to the press release later on.

It is unfortunate that Anadarko agreed to pay a break up fee of $1 billion, representing approximately $2 per share, without even picking up the phone to speak to us after we made two proposals during the week of April 8 that were at a significantly higher value to the transaction you were apparently negotiating with Chevron.

We noted to you on April 8 that our due diligence is complete. As you are aware, our financial advisors are BofA Merrill Lynch and Citi, and our legal advisors are Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP, and we and they are available to discuss any aspect of our proposal. We and our advisors have reviewed your merger agreement with Chevron. We are separately sending to you and your legal advisors a form of merger agreement on that basis which we would be prepared to enter into, subject to our agreeing to the disclosure schedules to be attached, together with a copy of our financing commitment letter.

Financing The Acquisition

Acquisition of this size is difficult for Occidental, especially as it offers much more cash than stocks.

In 2018, Occidental generated $7,669 million operating cash flows with $(4,975) million CapEx. It also paid $(2,374) million in cash dividend and bought back $(1,248) million stocks.

On its balance sheet as of the end of 2018, it had $3,033 million cash, and $10,317 million long-term debt.

On April 30, $10 billion financing was secured as Buffett came on board.

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. has committed to invest a total of $10 billion in Occidental. The investment is contingent upon Occidental entering into and completing its proposed acquisition of Anadarko. Berkshire Hathaway will receive 100,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share, together with a warrant to purchase up to 80.0 million shares of Occidental common stock at an exercise price of $62.50 per share.

The preferred shares also have a dividend rate of 8% per year.

As WSJ describes, the investment “is straight out of Warren Buffett’s playbook“. During and after the financial crisis, Berkshire acted as a lender of last resort for blue-chip companies including Goldman Sachs, General Electric and Bank of America.

Occidental marks Berkshire’s largest purchase of preferred shares; the 2013 Heinz deal has $8 billion preferred stocks and other securities.

Berkshire’s Preferreds | Source: WSJ

Mr. Buffett and Occidental have some shared history.

Mr. Buffett’s first stock purchase was three shares of Cities Service preferred stock when he was 11 years old. Occidental’s chief executive, Vicki Hollub, started her career at Cities Service, which was later acquired by Occidental. Cities Service is now called CITGO Petroleum Corp. and owned by Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela SA.

Jumia And Africa E-commerce (5): Delivery In Africa, Jumia Prime

In Jumia’s 2019 20-F, filed on April 03, it mentions that

The logistics landscape in Africa is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, often with no clear leading player in a particular country or region, a high degree of variability between regions and players, a general lack of automation of logistic centers and an overall challenging infrastructure. While some of Africa’s major cities are reasonably well-served by third-party logistics vendors, such vendors often do not operate with the standards required to ensure a good seller and consumer experience in the context of e-commerce. In addition, many Africans live in settings which lack clear addresses and are often far from the nearest warehouse or distribution center. As a result, logistics and delivery services are not readily available in such areas or may be prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, many local logistics companies operate without the technology required to provide consumers with high quality service (e.g., tracking of their order, timely delivery).

Jumia Logistics could be a competitive advantage, just like how Amazon becomes a delivery giant discussed in another post. But it is still at a very early stage. Read more about Jumia’s delivery challenges and solutions here, e.g. last-mile delivery with no street address.

As of December 31, 2019, Jumia Logistics platform consisted of almost 200 logistics partners, a proprietary delivery fleet to fulfill express deliveries in select areas, more than 40 thousand sqm of warehousing space, more than 70 drop-off stations for sellers and almost 600 pick-up stations for consumers. All of the warehouse space is leased from third parties.

Take a look at Jumia’s delivery time in Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya.

Source: Jumia Nigiria, Medium

Jumia Express is a program where sellers store goods in Jumia’s warehouses. In 2019, Jumia Express accounted for more than 30% of the items sold via our platform.

Jumia also rolled out Jumia Prime for unlimited free deliveries in certain markets. For exmaple, it’s around $60/yr in Nigiria, ~$64/yr in Nairobi in Kenya.

Source: jumia.com.ng

Another difficulty is the trust in cash (or maybe the unavailability of banking).

The ability for consumers to pay cash on delivery is an important feature of our platform, in particular for new consumers who are transacting online for the first time. In case of cash on delivery, the consumer needs to be present at the time of the delivery to pay for the order. While we are constantly improving our operations to make delivery schedules more convenient and predictable, some consumers are not present at the time of the delivery attempt, which means that cash on delivery results in a significantly higher portion of returns than other delivery options. These returns are driving higher fulfillment costs, higher costs of operations for our sellers and lower monetization for us as we are not able to collect commissions for such returns. In comparison, orders that are “pre-paid” electronically tend to drive much lower returns than cash on delivery, driving better monetization for us and, ultimately, lower fulfillment costs and less operational complexities.

Jumia 2019 20-F

As discussed in the filing as well, JumiaPay is trying to solve this issue, which could follow Alipay’s success in China (not a guarantee).

On-platform penetration of JumiaPay Transactions as a percentage of orders reached 28.7% in 2019 compared to 14.0% in 2018.

Jumia And Africa E-commerce (4): Citron, Net Merchandize Value

About one month after Jumia’s IPO, the famous short research Citron published a short report.

Their first major short thesis is based on a Confidential Investor Presentation for investors in October 2018, which presents a discrepancy between Jumia’s IPO filing.

    • The active customers & merchants as of 2017 are 2.1 million and 43 thousand in the Confidential Investor Presentation while in the IPO filing are 2.7 million and 53 thousand.
      • no difference in 2018 numbers
      • they might used different definition for “active”
      • another possibility is consolidation calculation – if a user used multiple Jumia services (online shopping, travel, food, etc.), they could have been double counted. In the October 2018 presentation, they might deduct the duplicated accounts

Cirton also emphasized on omitting a metric in IPO – net merchandize value (NMV).  Since GMV doesn’t take into account returns/cancellations, which is ~41% of the GMV in 2017, this could be material in evaluating the business.

Another lever is failed delivery. Taking all these into account, GMV probably is not a very good indicator at this stage of Africa’s e-commerce. This also explains the hight fulfillment expenses. As the infrastructure in Africa improves over time, it could be better.

In Jumia’s IPO documents, it only mentions “in 2018, orders accounting for 14.4% of our GMV were either failed deliveries or returned by our consumers. ”

In the 2019 20-F, it says “we have also experienced a decrease in the rate of cancellations, failed deliveries and returns as a percentage of our GMV from approximately 35% in 2018 to 32% in 2019.”

So around 20.6% of Jumia’s 2018 GMV is cancelled.

Actually, in Jumia’s 2019 Q2 call with analysts, it says “it has identified instances where orders were placed and then subsequently canceled“.

However, when NMV provides an important information about Jumia’s operation, after all its revenue and expenses won’t change.

「News of the Week」Luckin Coffee Fraud

On April 2, the company’s board announced that a preliminary investigation indicates that the “aggregate sales amount associated with the fabricated transactions from the second quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2019 amount to around RMB2.2 billion ($314 million).” Luckin’s stock price crashed.

Luckin Coffee Press Release

WSJ – Luckin, Rival to Starbucks in China, Says Employees Fabricated 2019 Sales; Stock Plummets

FT – Luckin Coffee apologises for alleged fraud

TechCrunch – Luckin Coffee’s board initiates investigation into $300M potential fraud

WSJ – Ernst & Young Says It First Found Accounting Issues at Luckin

Dots to connect: more scrutiny for US-listed Chinese companies, investigations into underwriters / lawyers / equity research analysts / auditors, trust issues, the need for Citron & short-sellers, fundamental value of this coffee chain business, internal governance for corporates in China, etc.

US Delivery System (7): Uber As Potential Disruptor

The Potential Disruptor: Uber

Uber, founded in 2009 and beta launched in San Francisco in 2010 on an AppShow, raised $8.1B in its IPO last year.

Uber is best-known as a ride-hailing company, the first of its kind in the new generation of gig-economy.

As the company grows, Uber has expanded into other areas, including UberEats.

Ride-hailing, in some way, is delivering people. UberEats, similarly, is delivering food.

Contrast to previous giants that create delivery systems with their own capital & employees, Uber is marching into this playground by facilitating the supply and demand, whether it’s people, food or other things.

During the current coronavirus pandemic, it has become more clear that moving people around is not the fundamental mandate of Uber; but matching the supply and demand is.

Consumers are increasingly using food delivery, grocery delivery and other tools to remain at home. No-contact delivery options have become popular.

Source: Techcrunch

In October 2019, Uber acquired the majority ownership of Cornershop, an online grocery provider in Chile, Mexico, and more recently in Peru and Toronto.

In March 19, 2020, on an investor update, Uber said

we’re actually now looking to test delivery, tested delivery and we have a Uber for health

Uber has transformed how people call a taxi; it may again transform the overall delivery system, starting from within cities.

US Delivery System (6): Amazon As Delivery Behemoth (Continu’d)

Amazon as a delivery behemoth (continu’d)

Growing capabilities in ocean, more vans & aircrafts

In 2016, Amazon registered itself with a federal agency overseeing ocean transportation, a step towards allowing it to serve as an intermediary for suppliers shipping merchandise in or out of the U.S.

Several month later, it was reported that Amazon had helped ship at least 150 containers of goods from China since October 2016, according to shipping documents collected at ports of entry that were compiled by Ocean Audit, a company specializing in ocean-freight refund recovery for shippers.

As of the beginning of 2018, Amazon’s freight shipping arm has shipped over 5,300 shipping containers from China to the United States. Amazon provides either simply the trans-Pacific portion of the trip or end-to-end service for companies that want it. That can include pick-up at the factory door in China,  shipment across the Pacific to a U.S. port, and trucking to Amazon fulfillment centers in the United States. Amazon Logistics and Beijing Joyo have published rates in their publicly accessible tariffs that describe the types of services and fees that their clients can utilize.

Amazon embarked in earnest on building its own last-mile network after UPS failed to bring orders to customers in time for Christmas in 2013, costing Amazon millions of dollars in refunds. [WSJ]

In 2018, Amazon ordered 20,000 Mercedes-Benz vans from Daimler. Since developing its own delivery network in 2018, Amazon .has built up a fleet of 30,000 last-mile delivery trucks and vans. As of Dec 2019 Bloomberg’s report, it has more than 800 delivery contractors in its last-mile network employing 75,000 U.S. drivers.

Amazon also has announced plans to order 100,000 battery-powered delivery vans from Rivian Automotive, an electric car-making venture it purchased a stake in earlier this year. The first of those battery-powered vans will hit the road in 2021.

Prime Air, the Amazon-branded planes, first debuted in Aug 2016. It first plane is a Boeing 767 owned by Atlas Air that had been converted into a freighter. Amazon announced deals with two aircraft leasing companies — Atlas, and another called Air Transport Services Group, or ATSG — in May 2016 to fly as many as 40 dedicated cargo planes over the next two years. [recode]

Atlas Air will be phasing in 20 Boeing 767-300s to carry Amazon’s freight, under the terms of a 10-year lease and a seven-year maintenance and operation contract. ATSG says its air services will eventually operate just as many planes for Amazon: 12 Boeing 767-200s that are covered by five-year leases, plus eight 767-300s with seven-year leases. [geekwire]

Amazon Prime Air plane
Source: recode

In May 2019, the main Air Hub at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport broke ground. Amazon will invest $1.5 billion. It can park 100 cargo jets and will open in 2021.

In 2019, after FedEx ended the services with Amazon, it announced a partnership with GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) to lease an additional 15 Boeing 737-800 cargo aircraft. These fifteen aircraft will be in addition to the five Boeing 737-800’s already leased from GECAS and announced earlier 2019.

“These new aircraft create additional capacity for Amazon Air, building on the investment in our Prime Free One-Day program,” said Dave Clark, Senior Vice President of Worldwide Operations at Amazon. “By 2021, Amazon Air will have a portfolio of 70 aircraft flying in our dedicated air network.”

US Delivery System (5): Amazon As Delivery Behemoth

Amazon as a delivery behemoth

50% of Amazon’s US packages

Amazon has been steadily growing its logistics operation over the last decade, and it now delivers more than half of all Amazon packages in the US.  “Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.

Share of Amazon Packages | Source: WSJ

Amazon needs to deliver about 5 billion packages per year. Amazon Logistics delivers about 20% of its U.S. package volumes from a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year.

MS estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.

By 2022, Amazon Logistics will reach a volume of 6.5 billion packages per year , far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.

FedEx and UPS

In its 2018 annual report, published in Feb 2019, Amazon counted companies in “transportation and logistics services” among its rivals. “They had never done that before that day,” Mr. Smith (Founder, Chairman & CEO of FedEx) said. “So we took it seriously.”

In August 2019, FexEx said it decided not to renew the contract when it expires at the end of August, not delivering Amazon packages through its ground network. In June, FedEx said it was ending its air-shipping contract with Amazon in the U.S.

While FedEx is walking away from the largest e-commerce player in the U.S., FedEx is positioning itself as a go-to carrier for Target Corp., Walmart Inc. and the world of retailers that aim to compete with Amazon. [WSJ]

Meanwhile, UPS has been investing heavily to expand its capacity to handle more packages for Amazon and other shippers. UPS reported a surge in the volume of packages going through its air network in the June quarter. [WSJ]

Further, in the 2019 holiday season, Amazon blocked its third-party sellers from using FedEx’s ground delivery network for Prime shipments, citing a decline in performance heading into the final stretch of the holiday shopping season.

Shipping with Amazon

What is more concerning for other shipping & logistics companies is the new “Shipping with Amazon” program, reported by WSJ in Feb 2018.

Amazon expects to roll out the delivery service in Los Angeles in coming weeks with third-party merchants that sell goods via its website.

While the program is being piloted with the company’s third-party sellers, it is envisioned as eventually accommodating other businesses as well.

Restaurant Chains Coronavirus Responses: McDonald’s

McDonald’s (MCD)

    • March 16
      • for company-owned stores: close seating areas, focus on delivery, drive-thru and walk-in take-out
      • for franchisees: strongly encouraged to adopt similar operations procedures; the guidance is supported by franchisee leadership and is expected to be adopted by the majority of franchisees
      • most crew members with scheduled shifts will be redeployed to support serving customers in the Drive-Thru, carry-out and McDelivery
    • March 20
      • working with franchisees around the world in order to promote financial liquidity (e.g. rent deferrals) during this period of uncertainty
      • providing two weeks of paid leave for employees of company-owned restaurants who are impacted by the virus (announced on March 10)
      • franchisees and partners around the world are are supporting first responders, hospital and healthcare workers with free food and/or drinks in recognition and support of the work they are doing to help others.  
        • In the U.S., some franchisees are providing free lunches to children dependent on free school lunch programs where school is closed, others are providing free meals to healthcare workers and a franchisee in the Midwest is offering up their parking lots for Blood Drives
        • Across Europe, many markets are providing free drinks, coffee and meals to first responders and healthcare workers on the front lines
        • In Guatemala, the restaurants are providing food to workers who are constructing temporary hospitals to support treatment of those diagnosed with COVID-19.
        • In the Philippines, we will be providing food to medical health workers, NGO volunteers and parts of the population that are experiencing challenges accessing food
    • March 20, CEO Interview with CNBC
      • has suspended its buyback program several weeks ago
      • plan is to maintain its quarterly cash dividend of $1.25
      • In China, the epicenter of the virus, McDonald’s has reopened 95% of its restaurants
      • only 50 out of 14,000 McDonald’s U.S. locations have closed due to the pandemic
      • franchisees are working with lenders to restructure loans, and suppliers are extending payment terms
    • March 25
      • from 3/24 – 4/6, McDelivery through both Uber Eats and DoorDash is offering $0 Delivery Fee for any orders with a $15 minimum basket size
    • March 25 (Restaurant Business Article)
      • will temporarily suspend its all-day breakfast menu in the coming weeks as the chain simplifies its operations (still available during the morning)
    • Update: March 26, $1 billion borrowing
      • entered into a 364-Day Revolving Credit Agreement dated as of March 25, 2020; and borrowed the full $1 billion committed amount available under the Agreement
    • Update: March 27, $3.5 billion borrowing
      • On March 27, 2020, McDonald’s issued an aggregate principal amount of $3.5 billion of medium-term notes, pursuant to the existing medium-term notes program filed with the SEC and effective on July 27, 2018
    • Continuously developing thread of messages

Update: MCD 1-month chart as of March 27

Source: Google