Howard Marks’ fallacy

In his book The Most Important Thing Illuminated, Howard Marks wrote this –

Our goal isn’t to find good assets, but good buys. Thus, it’s not what you buy; it’s what you pay for it.

Obviously there is merit to this. Warren Buffett 1.0 could agree with Howard Marks here.

But clearly this contradicts with Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett 2.0, who are willing to pay fair price for good assets.

The “fallacy”, if any, could origin from Marks’ expertise in distressed debts.

A huge difference between equity and debt is that debt doesn’t have unlimited upside.

Debt’s blue sky scenario is limited – receive full payment in interests and face value. Thus price is extremely important.

Equity could have “unlimited” upside for a good company. These good assets have unlimited upside, which makes paying fair price a good deal.

That unlimited upside makes the additional 10% or 20% discount in entry price less relevant.

 

Living in the Future (Earnings)

第四季的 The David Rubenstein Show 里,Tim Cook 和 Jeff Bezos 分别的不同程度讲到了同一个问题。

Tim 的角度是 David 问他在不在意每个季度财报时候的 iphone 销量;Jeff 也是类似,被问每个季度的财报。

虽然或多或少会在意?但他们的回答都是不看重当前的季度,而是着眼于未来。当前季度的财报可能两三年前就被预料到。他们活在未来的1-3年,他们要做的事、在做的事是影响公司以后的 earnings (乃至社会和人类的发展)。

这是未来推演的能力以及能给未来找到solution的能力。

每个职位对于各项能力的要求都不一样。Apple 和 Amazon 的 CEO,很需要这个能力。政府领导人更是需要。这是极其艰巨复杂的问题,并且仅有极少的素材可以学习。我们才刚刚起步,我相信未来会有越来越多的人有这方面强大的能力,这样才能带着这个物种以指数级前进。