Tag: Random Thoughts

To grow a number, in math there are addend, or multiplier, or exponent.

Similarly, in businesses, one could grow a company in different ways.

• Adding a location for Walmart is likely a addend – the addition won’t help/affect other locations
• Apple introducing Apple Pay is likely a multiplier – value created for all users and profits per users improved across the board
• Exponential impact is more subtle. I think organization / cultural improvement is likely the case, where better talents are attracted, better outcomes are achieved, and a virtuous cycle is created

Is it possible to replicate this kind of growth for individuals? Or to categorize an individual’s effort into similar buckets?

Here is an example I think of:

• Reading a book to learn a piece of knowledge is like an addend
• Reading a book which has impact over a lifetime / all future decisions is like an multiplier
• Reading a book to form a better map of knowledge is like an exponent, in the sense that future books can be “better” read – you get the point faster, you understand the author better, you connect more dots, etc.

Find the exponent, do the exponential function in life.

This is a feeling / theory that I originally thought about during covid-19 – that if you divide people’s risk tolerance by 1-10, before covid it may be ok for people that are 3 ratings apart to mingle (say 5-8), but then only people that are 1 ratings apart are comfortable to be together (say 2-3).

The impact is obvious – if living with less diversified opinions and more like-minded people, people might grow more comfortable within a more similar but narrow circle, and then become less tolerant to different opinions, and might develop a bit biased impression of “mainstream”. It’s a bit like the echo chamber problem exacerbated by social media.

I do feel that even covid-19 is over, the situation is not getting better. Maybe because people are used to being less tolerant over the years. Maybe people just care less about things & people that they don’t see.

It’s not sure if deglobalization is the cause or the result of this.

One things is clear – I haven’t seen much sign of people realizing this subtle change and forces to reverse it.

Years ago, we have entered into a world where communication with one another is instant and nearly cost-free. For broadcasters, this is the golden age that they could spread their messages easier than ever.

But that time seems to the last, as tech firms supporting those platforms are taking or required to take more actions in limiting messages/ads allowed to broadcast.

The underlying thesis – people realized that the nature of information will change depending on the number of audience.

Twitter’s recent action is to ban political ad purchases – to reach a large audience just by spending money. We could easily see that in a world such thing is allowed, it would just become a competition for war-chest, candidates bidding higher prices to reach the audience.

Some actions are for general accounts/messages – a Facebook account or post for example. Most are justified actions now. But this is a slippery slope. More messages could have been banned for the sake of overall well-being.

On the other hand, tech firms don’t want to spend too much on screening messages/ads. After all, they are not speaking those languages. But the challenges they are facing are more real than ever, while implementing more rules will also draw more critics.

There is a balance and trade-off here.

Tech firms need to balance between the percentage of communications allowed and the overall “healthiness” of the platform. The latter would impact long-term ads sales, users growth/engagement and political pressure/costs.

By just looking at the title, I don’t even know what I am trying to say.

But here is an example. We are know targeted ads (by Facebook or others). By purchasing ads for a more precisely defined population, sellers are wasting less time for other audience. The overall efficiency of transmitting messages (ads in this case) increases. This is value creation.

However, as Facebook gaining more insights and pricing power, it can charge higher prices for more effective ads to the extend that targeted ads are just a little better than traditional (mass) ads. I put 95% in the title but that is just to give a feeling. The sellers will be better off but the marketing costs will continue to increase and in the end they will find it very hard to earn a lucrative net profit margin.

This might be the ultimate price discrimination and Facebook is capturing nearly all the value down the chain.

Some time in the future, we will find old-school ways are much more friendly.

So human beings won’t evolve fast within 20-50 years, without any genetic engineering.

As we are reaching our limits, it would be very hard to break any records – for those sports that measures speed, height, strength, etc.

But that is what we are all expecting (as audience) and what keeps the sports industry exciting and growing.

So those sports have become increasingly dependent on “outside helps” – including those (e.g. certain drugs) banned by the overseeing committee.

Therefore, there will be increasingly possible that future sports will be driven more by technology development and the supervising body will be more “tolerant”.

What is more, there is always a blurring line between “allowed medication” and “forbidden techniques”.

I will be very interested to see how this conflict/problem will be solved/mitigated.

WeChat is also gradually upgrading itself as an entrance to internet.

Scanning a QR code is as common as using WeChat.

Businesses are using QR codes as the beginning of a customer relation; government departments/agencies are using QR codes as a way to provide/introduce/reserve many services.

And most of these websites or alternatives or websites are happening in Tencent’s ecosystem/domain. (or Alibaba/Baidu/JD/Toutiao/Weibo/Meituan’s domain)

Few people are creating their own website nowadays in China. For example, when we can find a restaurant’s website in US, usually in China we find it on WeChat/Ele(alibaba)/Meituan/Dianping(Meituan).

And when people are used to it, search engines are going to give away their position as the entrance of internet.

And when people forget how to type a web address, internet is more disconnected and is just comprised of a few closed bubbles – not exciting.