Twitter Banned Political Ads

Years ago, we have entered into a world where communication with one another is instant and nearly cost-free. For broadcasters, this is the golden age that they could spread their messages easier than ever.

But that time seems to the last, as tech firms supporting those platforms are taking or required to take more actions in limiting messages/ads allowed to broadcast.

The underlying thesis – people realized that the nature of information will change depending on the number of audience.

Twitter’s recent action is to ban political ad purchases – to reach a large audience just by spending money. We could easily see that in a world such thing is allowed, it would just become a competition for war-chest, candidates bidding higher prices to reach the audience.

Some actions are for general accounts/messages – a Facebook account or post for example. Most are justified actions now. But this is a slippery slope. More messages could have been banned for the sake of overall well-being.

On the other hand, tech firms don’t want to spend too much on screening messages/ads. After all, they are not speaking those languages. But the challenges they are facing are more real than ever, while implementing more rules will also draw more critics.

There is a balance and trade-off here.

Tech firms need to balance between the percentage of communications allowed and the overall “healthiness” of the platform. The latter would impact long-term ads sales, users growth/engagement and political pressure/costs.

Creating Value And Capture 95% Of It

By just looking at the title, I don’t even know what I am trying to say.

But here is an example. We are know targeted ads (by Facebook or others). By purchasing ads for a more precisely defined population, sellers are wasting less time for other audience. The overall efficiency of transmitting messages (ads in this case) increases. This is value creation.

However, as Facebook gaining more insights and pricing power, it can charge higher prices for more effective ads to the extend that targeted ads are just a little better than traditional (mass) ads. I put 95% in the title but that is just to give a feeling. The sellers will be better off but the marketing costs will continue to increase and in the end they will find it very hard to earn a lucrative net profit margin.

This might be the ultimate price discrimination and Facebook is capturing nearly all the value down the chain.

Some time in the future, we will find old-school ways are much more friendly.

A Fundamental Pitfall In Sports

So human beings won’t evolve fast within 20-50 years, without any genetic engineering.

As we are reaching our limits, it would be very hard to break any records – for those sports that measures speed, height, strength, etc.

But that is what we are all expecting (as audience) and what keeps the sports industry exciting and growing.

So those sports have become increasingly dependent on “outside helps” – including those (e.g. certain drugs) banned by the overseeing committee.

Therefore, there will be increasingly possible that future sports will be driven more by technology development and the supervising body will be more “tolerant”.

What is more, there is always a blurring line between “allowed medication” and “forbidden techniques”.

I will be very interested to see how this conflict/problem will be solved/mitigated.

WeChat: More Than Messaging And Payment (3)

WeChat is also gradually upgrading itself as an entrance to internet.

Scanning a QR code is as common as using WeChat.

Businesses are using QR codes as the beginning of a customer relation; government departments/agencies are using QR codes as a way to provide/introduce/reserve many services.

And most of these websites or alternatives or websites are happening in Tencent’s ecosystem/domain. (or Alibaba/Baidu/JD/Toutiao/Weibo/Meituan’s domain)

Few people are creating their own website nowadays in China. For example, when we can find a restaurant’s website in US, usually in China we find it on WeChat/Ele(alibaba)/Meituan/Dianping(Meituan).

And when people are used to it, search engines are going to give away their position as the entrance of internet.

And when people forget how to type a web address, internet is more disconnected and is just comprised of a few closed bubbles – not exciting.

Books, Digital Books, Public Libraries

So nowadays we are comfortable with two facts:

    1. Books can be digital. It is good for distribution, near zero marginal cost of production, no burden on environment, reducing the barrier of knowledge.
    2. There are public libraries that provide free borrowing for resources including books (physical).

Then here comes the question – why libraries don’t provide free digital version of books.

The Answer could be very simple.

No one will buy books then…..

Then there is another question – since public libraries are funded by governments (tax payers) and donors, why are books not subsidized by governments like healthcare or education.

Why don’t governments make a list of knowledge-based books nearly free?

Authors should receive a stream of cash flows from taxpayers, for the contribution of their books.

 

Tech Companies = Governments

This will be a large topic and won’t be easy to discuss in a systematic way. I will write down some thoughts in bullet points and revisit later.


  • The idea has occurred to me several times. Essentially, government is an organization and so does a company. Although organizations have different scopes, different formats of running, there must be some similarities.
  • We usually say companies are to maximize shareholders’ value (short-run and long-run). But when the long-run is long enough, we shall see something interesting: the companies are paying extreme attention to building an ecosystem, to maintaining a healthy community/marketplace, to maximizing users’ satisfaction, etc.
  • Tech companies very much rely on users’ opinion. They listen to users. Users have the option to walk away just like immigration. Tech companies need users’ inputs/choices to build apps they use, to maintain the virtual world they live. The self-governance is impressive, especially in blockchain-based applications that users can decide/vote.
  • Tech companies are responsible to protect users from malware or harmful contents/users. They can block an IP address or a user account just like putting someone into prison. They can reject his/her entrance into the community.
  • Tech companies have their own rules or bottom lines that act as laws/judges, with the help of self-governance.
  • There are many free services as long as you are one of its users (or citizens)
  • They provide infrastructures and ways to interact (emails, postal services, freeways)
  • Users pay taxes such as data. In other cases, users share what they earned through tech companies (e.g. marketplace organizers by them)

California Republic And (Currently) A Democratic State

Recently I saw the state flag a few times with the bear and the name of “California Republic”. While the name may have new meanings now, it also represents its history.

Originally part of Mexico, the 1846 revolt declared independence of California Republic with its capital in Sonoma. Only lasted for 25 days, the republic later became part of the United States.

Despite the republic origin, California has been a strong democratic state since 1992.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Source: Los Angeles Times

It appears to me tho, that the “republic” or “democratic” name itself won’t convey much meaning going forward. Sure a party will start with a name that is closely related a specific opinion. After decades or hundreds of years, most of the founding ideas will fade away; it might be okay to just call them “party A” and “party B”.

Ultimately, most ordinary voters only care about if their feel good or not. And most of that feeling is correlated with economic status. So the flipping of the economy will change the control between parties.

California has been booming for years with the help from semiconductors, PCs, internet, etc. As long as tech industry remains strong, so does California and it will continue be won by the current party.

Media In The New Age

It is not necessarily something new/surprising – traditional media are PAYING tech companies to be promoted.

Source: my Twitter on 11/8

I found this really ironic in the sense that originally most media should BE PAID to promote something. The reach to readers is built in the gene of media and defines one of the two pillars of media business model.

Tech companies like Twitter/Toutiao, are not just selling promotions/ads. To me, they are more like real estate developers. They are building towns/offices for people to live/work and renting out the places such as tops of buildings… What’s more, they are doing this everyday and creating places everyday with little physical limits and marginal efforts.

When the town is getting crowded, it becomes Manhattan, where real estates are pricey. Those who were invited as “Official Accounts” now needs to pay more money to be seen. The tech companies can run those auctions which no one questions their eligibility (and why Manhattan is in New York).

Yes We Humans Are Vulnerable as Always

Coincidentally, a few incidences involving people’s death/missing happened during the last weekend and became headlines around the world.

In the US, massive shoot developed in a Pittsburgh synagogue, leading to at least 11 deaths.

In Chongqing, China, a bus ran off a bridge into deep water of Yangtze River with an estimate of 15 on board.

In Indonesia, a Boeing-737 MAX with Lion Air crashed into the sea after took off with 189 people on the plane and 0 survivor has been found so far.

[May those taken from us rest in peace]

While there are different reasons (or direct causes) behind these tragedies, they all reminded us of how vulnerable our species is. Technology and society advancements have their own ways of going wrong.

Our ancestors don’t have much direct advantages to survive their world; yet we have conquered and shaped our planet to an ever increasing degree over our history. We can protect ourselves from stronger animals which would otherwise make us their food; we can fight destructive fires which would otherwise burn our settlements; we can cure those deadly pandemics which would otherwise wipe out half of a continent’s population or even an entire regional population…

However, things made to combat threats could go wild and we can’t resist.

The tools we created and the capabilities we built into them dwarf our physical/natural abilities. We are not very much improved genetically as a species over the last 1 million years (and not very much different from genus Pan as genus Home).

Naturally we can’t survive a gunshot and can’t find a way out under deep water from a closed room (e.g. bus, plane).

Although life expectancy has gone from 20 to 40 to 80 and may go to 160 in the future, we are still humans.

Sometimes we just need to forget all those achievements and just be human.

Life is valuable because it is limited. May everyone of us enjoy it.

Asymmetrical Effort

最近愈发觉得自己在研究公司中有一个bias – 对于表现不好的公司花很多时间精力,表现好的就不怎么管了

这里的表现体现在股价。

具体来说 1. 开始投资的时候,是会花很多精力;如果近期有headwind会花更多effort。 2. 买了,跌了,这一类的公司占据很多时间精力 3. 买了,涨了,往往就不太花时间跟踪,反而错过新的机会或者对推出时机不敏感

这就是标题中 asymmetrical…

这其实不仅体现在研究公司中。比如以前上学的时候,熟悉的科目不怎么复习,复习花在学得不稳的科目上。

这或许是一个普遍的不对称性?所谓打江山易,守江山难也有这个因素?危机的时候人可能表现出超乎平常的能力?

这应该是个生物学+心理学共同解释的现象。