Tag: Tech

A Note on 5G & Its Slicing as a Real Estate Play

【推荐读物】Recommending this insightful and objective article by Benedict Evans from a16z – 5G: if you build it, we will fill it.

Below is an excerpt of his comments on slicing…

One of the cooler features of 5G is that it lets you split out dedicated capacity for particular use cases – so-called ‘network slicing’. Today (to simplify hugely), although network operators try to do traffic management, all traffic in the cell is fundamentally using the same capacity. 5G lets you create dedicated private capacity in the radios network with specific characteristics. So, you could sell a truck operator dedicated capacity on the two miles between a specific freeway exit and a specific warehouse. Or, you could offer an IoT operator (or alarm company) much lower bandwidth but over a wider area.

 

 

Lowered iPhone Sales Forecast and More

Since Apple announced that it would stop reporting the iPhone unit sales number during Q3 earnings call, things have not become easier.

iPhone Ban in China

The fight between Qualcomm and Apple has led to a sales ban on older iPhone models in China, ordered from a Chinese court (福州市中级人民法院). The case was filed against Apple in China in late 2017, saying the iPhone maker infringed patents on features related to resizing photographs and managing apps on a touch screen.

Apple said it planned a software update that would solve the issue; also, the ban would likely take time to enforce, according to Reuters.

iPhone Ban in German

In German, Apple will be pulling iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 models from its stores there following a win for Qualcomm in the District Court of Munich, which ruled that Apple’s devices were infringing on Qualcomm’s intellectual property related to power savings in smartphones. (The Verge)

Qualcomm said on Thursday (Jan.3) that it posted security bonds of 1.34 billion euros ($1.52 billion) to enforce the German court order.

Apple Outlook Cut Citing Weaker iPhone Demands in China

On Jan 2, a letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook to investors said sales will be about $84 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 29, down from earlier estimates of $89 billion to $93 billion. Apple posted sales of $88.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter a year earlier, so the new forecast would mean Apple is reporting a holiday quarter slowdown for the first time since Cook became CEO in 2011. (Bloomberg)

Apple shares fell 10% to $142.19, the biggest drop in almost six years, the next day.

In the letter, Cook said Apple’s gross margin will be approximately 38%. (also discussed in a previous post about Apple’s pricing strategy)

Chinese Phone Makers Gaining In Zero-growth Market

Although 2018 Q4 numbers are not yet available, Q3 numbers tell the same story. According to IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker on Nov 1.

Company 3Q18 Shipment Volumes (millions) 3Q18 Market Share 3Q17 Shipment Volumes (millions) 3Q17 Market Share 3Q18/3Q17 Change
Samsung 72.2 20.3% 83.3 22.1% -13.4%
Huawei 52.0 14.6% 39.1 10.4% 32.9%
Apple 46.9 13.2% 46.7 12.4% 0.5%
Xiaomi 34.3 9.7% 28.3 7.5% 21.2%
OPPO 29.9 8.4% 30.6 8.1% -2.1%
Others 119.9 33.8% 149.8 39.6% -19.9%
Total 355.2 100.0% 377.8 100.0% -6.0%

And in Gartner’s December report…

Vendor 3Q18 Units (thousands) 3Q18 Market Share (%) 3Q17 Units (thousands) 3Q17 Market Share (%)
Samsung 73,360.1 18.9 85,605.3 22.3
Huawei 52,218.4 13.4 36,501.8 9.5
Apple 45,746.6 11.8 45,441.9 11.8
Xiaomi 33,219.7 8.5 26,853.2 7.0
OPPO 30,563.4 7.9 29,449.2 7.7
Others 153,960.0 39.6 159,742.0 41.6
Total 389,068.2 100.0 383,593.4 100.0

What is good for Apple…

From Cook’s letter, we know Apple’s wearables sales grew by almost 50% year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers.

「Video of the Week」Tesla Gigafactory

As Elon Musk went to Shanghai for the groundbreaking of Tesla’s first international factory on Jan 6, this video about Gigafactory by Verge is worth watching to refresh the basic understanding of its status and future.

“This is Elon Musk’s key to Tesla’s future”

Tesla Model 3 Sales in 2018 Q4 – Not so Exciting

Model 3 has Little QoQ Growth

Tesla had very impressive numbers in Q3, when Model 3 delivery (55,840) was almost tripled from Q2 (18,440).

While no one is expecting another jump, the Q4 numbers are kinda lackluster, especially when adding Model 3 delivery and in transit numbers.

Tesla shares fall 9% on Wednesday when those numbers were reported.

$2,000 Price Cut and Phase-out of Tax Credit

Tesla also announced a price cut of $2,000 for Model S, Model X and Model 3 in the US. The move will partially offset the phase-out of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV.

[Phase-out will start in the second calendar quarter when the manufacturer has 200,000 plug-in registered in US. The credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.]

Source: InsideEVs

According to InsideEVs’ estimate, Tesla hit the 200,000 first in the second half of 2018, while General Motors was second with a breakout month of sales for the Bolt and Volt in November 2018.

The next four manufacturer in EV are Nissan (126,875), Ford (111,715), Toyota (93,011), BMW (79,679).

A combination of flat delivery + in transit Model 3, and a price reduction, warned people about the actual demand for Model 3.

Good news are: 1) people may just be waiting for the basic Model 3, aka $35,000 version that Elon touted but analysts said money-losing for Tesla; 2) Tesla is still way ahead in the EV market

2018 Monthly Sales Chart

Drones In The Airport

Signature events will move regulation forward.

That is what drones will be facing after a catastrophic shut down of the second largest airport in UK due to a single drone.

While the drone came back every time the airport tried to reopen, the operator(s) hasn’t been found/caught.

An “effective” measure and procedure to prevent similar things will be formulated.

But problems won’t be solved.

I see drone issues more like gun issues – and eventually might be a “to-ban-or-not-to-ban” choice made by countries. Or a strict military control of technology.

This event will certainly make itself in the future history when regulations are put together.

Data Breaches And Another Push to Migrate to Cloud?

The second largest data breaches reported in November that Marriott’s Starwood reservation system has been breached since 2014, affecting up to 500 million guests.

A few days later, another major breach was reported – Quora users’ account info and private chats were exposed, affecting around 100 million people.

While the largest hack in history involved around 3 billion accounts of Yahoo in 2013, Marriott’s will probably have the most “impact” as it not only involves usernames, emails, passwords, etc. (as in the case of Yahoo/Quora), but also includes passport info and date of birth among others. The latter two kinds are more personal and sensitive and could be combined to get access to many other things.

Thought One

This is just another reason why companies should move (at least part of) their info system to cloud services providers like Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

Technically, those companies have much better security expertise and do provide an edge in protecting users from those breaches.

And for corporate executives, the data security and related issues are outsourced and liabilities are kinda transferred. Media and users might focus more on why tech companies could be breached. (so how did FB data get hacked?)

Thought Two

It seems that most advices on breaches include change password, double-check card transactions and credit reports, freeze your cards… All about what customers should put extra efforts on themselves.

But I thought users should be reimbursed for their trust being failed. Corporates should take more responsibilities and be forced to provide appropriate remedies; otherwise every company could just save money and let those breaches happen again, when
prob(breach) * loss on breach(including remedies, future loss business, etc.) < cost of good data protection

While financial institutions would take some financial damage in those breaches for users, the identity damage might be hard to recover.

Much more efforts should be beforehand in protecting data. Or it’s not only a full network of tracing, but also a future fake network of people.

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