The full interview is here.
Shan’s overarching thesis is that China’s consumption potential hasn’t been fully released.
He argued that China’s property problem was a drag, but housing price looks stabling, citing 2026 Jan to May Shanghai housing price up.
Further, he argued that nation wide housing rental yield is 2.8% and is meaningfully higher than China’ sovereign debt yield, which makes housing interesting as an asset class.
The argument on cost of construction has some merit, but that includes cost of land.
The part of 买涨不买跌 and 卖跌不卖涨 is a bit confusing to me as this is more short-term psychology influencing supply demand but not fundamentals.
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I have a different opinion.
I think to housing has stabilized is probably pre-mature.
Some positive drivers can be short-lived, such as
– a good A-share stock market in 1H2026 (CSI300 17.66% in 2025 and 7.55% in 1H26, STAR50 60.86% in 2025 and 64.25 in 1H26)
– the large number of IPOs in HK and A-share,
– policy driven demand – such as “Shanghai seven measures” in Feb 2026; Shanghai gov recently introduced new measures to support housing market.
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Assume housing stabilization is true, which definitely has positive impact on consumption, it doesn’t necessarily mean consumption will be up.
There are many other factors, including confidence in the job market and income level, savings for retirement and healthcare, culture etc.
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However, I do sense that Chinese gov is doing more to stabilize housing price and consumption, although policy is not at a stimulating level.
And I do agree Chinese gov has more capacity / more policy in the toolbox.