Data estimated by 米内网 (menet.com), which was formerly 中国医药经济信息网, created in 1997 by (formerly) CFDA Southern Research Institute.
According to the data, the overall end market sales grew 6.3% to 1713 billion yuan (or ~$250 billion) in 2018.
Retailer channels continues to grew at above-GDP rate (7.5% in 2018).
The data is not including sales in private hospitals/clinics, etc. The overall sales would be 2 trillion yuan for 2018 if included.
WSJ – Targeted Killing of Iranian General Puts U.S. at Crossroads in Middle East
Dots to connect: rising oil price, trade routes, military roll-back?, just to make election more complicated?, starting point to a series of actions that would lead to the justification of uses of special (presidential) powers?, etc.
A video to better understand the importance and potential of detecting molecular sin a ultra sensitive way, for the last post – Quanterix: A Growth Story Just Began.
Quanterix (Nasdaq: QTRX) is building a razor-blade model just like Illumina. With its ultra sensitive detection, Quanterix is revolutionizing immunoassay especially in neurology, improving the industry’s capabilities to access/evaluate related molecular data, understand diseases better and designing drugs/trials around it.
In recent quarters, Quanterix saw a continued growth in its consumables, which is the bread-and-butter due to its recurring nature and higher margin (than selling instruments.
Of course, the instrument sales are important, as the cumulative count (or installed base) should drive more recurring revenues in consumables.
Currently, the consumables revenue / instrument is ~$70k per year.
While the previous posts (2) (3) summarized the birth and development (especially the model of fee-for-certificates) of MOOCs, online degrees, as a more “formal” segment of online higher educations, was actually born before 2011.
The boom can be attributed to the 1. advancement in technology infrastructure (higher internet speed, 4G, streaming, etc.) 2. people’s behavior changes such as the growing adoption of smart personal devices (smartphones, etc.) 3. increasingly burdensome higher education costs in the US and associated student debts 4. the incentives provided by the regulatory environment such as the re-authorized Higher Education (Opportunity) Act in 2008.
Distance education: US Department of Education shall not require an accreditor to have separate standards, procedures or policies for evaluation of distance education. Accreditors must, however, require institutions that offer distance education to establish that a student registered for a distance education course is the same student who completes and receives credit for it.
Then, there emerged a group of companies called Online Program Management (OPM) providers, with 2U being the current leader.
The first of its kind was launched in 2008 – MAT@USC, Master of Arts in Teaching Program, developed by the USC Rossier School of Education in partnership with 2tor Inc. (the company later its changed name into 2U Inc. in 2012)
The basic idea is to replicate the degree offerings in the online format as much as possible. Private companies like 2tor will invest upfront and share the majority of future tuitions. The programs costs were a little cheaper (but at the similar level) than the traditional on-campus version.
The agreement of MAT@USC program provides a glimpse into the structure. As mentioned in the announcement, “tuition for MAT@USC is the same as the USC on-campus program at approximately $1,300 per credit.”
In 2012, when MOOCs were getting more attentions, 2tor also raised more capital and expanded the partnerships. It raised $26 million Series D in April and had 5 programs in agreement: USC’s Rossier School of Education for the MAT@USC mentioned before, USC’s Masters of Social Work Program (MSW@USC) added in 2010, Georgetown’s nursing program (Nursing@Georgetown) launched in Spring 2011, UNC’s MBA program (MBA@UNC) starting in July 2011, and announced the addition of UNC’s Master of Public Administration (MPA@UNC) right before this financing round. (See appendix for the current tuition of these five programs)
As we shall see in the next post that, as OPMs grew, at the same time, MOOCs were expanding into OPM’s fields, partnering with universities to offer degrees related programs.
At the same time, they are also trying to provide non-university based higher education, usually for/with companies in industries.
Born with different origins and offerings, MOOCs and OPMs are now coming to fight similar battles and creating full-service online higher education platforms:
To be continued
Other more recent highly watched events for 2U included:
May 2017 2U to acquire GetSmarter for approximately $103 million, which provides online short courses in partnership with universities – just like what MOOCs did.
August 2017 HBS, SEAS and FAS partner with 2U, Inc., to offer the Harvard Business Analytics Program. The first cohort of students is expected start classes in March 2018. The total cost of the program—not including travel and lodging expenses—to be $51,500 based on current program fee rates.
January 2018 2U and WeWork announced a broad partnership: e.g. WeWork spaces are available to 2U students enrolled in graduate degree programs; WeWork members and employees can access $5 million in scholarships to enroll in 2U programs, etc.
April 2019 2U to Trilogy for $750 million in cash and shares, a large boot camp provider that partners with continuing education divisions at dozens of universities.
Non-fiction 非小说类
这是 17 年书单里《乡土中国》的一本相关书籍，是费老早期的成名作品。相比于之后的抽象整理，《江村经济》从更具体的观察对象（开弦弓村）出发，详尽地描绘了一个中国近代经济基本单元“村”的方方面面、其中的发展和变化、各类习俗传统的来源和逻辑。从村庄的规划与河流、什么算本村人以及土地的所有和传承、航船作为一片居民的购买代理人（B2B2C）等等问题，可以看到一个消费生产分配交易体系以及今天的逻辑。
Theranos 的故事估计不少人都听过，一路估值冲天至 90 亿美元，然后从 2015 年 10 月华尔街日报一则深度报道开始崩盘。这本 2018 年出版的书就是当时那篇报道的作者，将他整个调查写稿发布过程详细地描绘给大家。书的内容相当精彩，后半部分我几乎是一气呵成看完的。整本书里还有一些其它细节，比如 Murdoch，华尔街日报母公司的控股股东，放着自己在 Theranos 投的 1 亿美元不管，信任华尔街日报的判断，而不理会 Theranos 阻止报道的要求。
作者在 1997 年以《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》一战成名；《昨日之前的世界》是他 2012 年底出版的近作。与《江村经济》类似，这本书以一个具体社群（新几内亚的部落）为对象展开，描述了这些独立发展出的小型社会的世界观。有时候，不抱着现成的一套观念来了解其它社会可以帮助更深层次地推导某些定义和社会行为逻辑。
这本书应该挺有名的了，宏观地总结了人类发展的关键点。书中提出了一些有趣的观点，比如农业革命让更多人以勉强生存的状况活下去，比如一个社群共同想象力（mutual imagination）的重要性等等。这本书的信息效率很高，丰富有内涵并且能浓缩整理成简史，确实出色。
耶路撒冷 Jerusalem 是一个人类打造出的传奇，在历史上的各个时间点，它都凭借着传奇的历史吸引着当时的人。作者从尽可能客观的视角，围绕这么一个充满争端的城市，展开了它周围的民族文化宗教变迁。也正因如此，历史上耶路撒冷本身其实是相当包容的城市 if not the most。对于有相关历史储备且感兴趣的读者，这应当是很系统的一部佳作。
作者是近代结构和材料领域先驱之一。当时找到它是因为 Elon Musk 曾在 2015 年提过。是一本比较理论的工程/建筑类书，也解释了不少生活中的东西，从桥梁大坝到烤香肠为何总是长边裂开等等。
很棒的 Nike 起家史，起始只是个把日本的鞋买到美国的故事。书中有创始人中途做审计和讲师来支持生活，有创立之初就很重视的 CRM，有用 “influencer” 卖鞋，有收入增长与现金流困境，有融资和与银行的拉扯，有从 Blue Ribbon 到 Nike 不得已的转变，有去台湾找工厂喝的茅台等等。干货多，内容难得。
原本以为会是主题多样的散文选集，结果是一本极力讲中国传统文化保护重要性的文章集锦。冯老讲到了平时没有很多人重视的遗憾：民间文化逐渐遗失缺少传承，古村落作为一个个鲜活的文化载体缺少系统研究保护等等。中国自身文化的多样性，以及对它们包容接受保护的能力，应该是未来在世界舞台更上一个台阶的重要基础。
这本书阐述总结了日本的理念、文化和行为规律，1946 年首次出版，有一些年代感，部分内容在今天看不那么适用。书中着重提到的有日本人的矛盾，有对于一切都是在计划中的执念，有“各守本位”的思想基础，有天皇的特殊地位和影响力，有以“恩”为核心的社会行为指南等等。读完可能会对现在日本电视剧动漫之类的人物设定有更深层次理解。
Reuters – China sets out move to liberalize IPO rules to streamline listings
Caixin – China Approves New Securities Law with Registration-Based IPO System
The amended legislation, due to take effect from March 1, removes complex and time-consuming watchdog scrutiny before listings and is designed to expand registration-based IPOs.
Th requirement for a company to qualify for a new listing is lowered to being “capable of sustainable business operations,” from the previous more stringent “capable of sustained profitability.”
The revised law adds a new chapter on information disclosure.
it also contains provision for heavier punishment on stocks violations and pledges better protection for investors in general.
Dots to connect: fees for investment banks, stock performance for financial services companies, increasing power of exchanges, dropping value of “shell companies”, growing value of indexes, etc..
As the new Alzheimer’s drug by Green Valley Pharma approved in China earlier this year, here is a video for this seaweed-based drug (甘露特钠胶囊，GV-971).
And a video for Alzheimer’s disease in general.
Updates: The drug officially launched on Dec 29.