The future in Elon’s world – future underground and future on Mars in conversation with TED’s Head Curator, Chris Anderson.
Some screenshots:
The underground highway.
40-story tall space-vehicle, enough to take Boeing 747 as cargo.
Author: admin
Global Warming and Lobsters
Here is a perfect follow-up on last week’s blog of Global Warming and Wine.
Clearly, global warming will not only drive vineyard northward, but also lobsters. And it is happening now as animals can move freely.
[The following is from Reuter’s special report on The Great Lobster Rush]
Lobster industry was a nautical gold rush. Two generations ago, the entire New England coast had a thriving lobster industry.
Today, lobster catches have collapsed in southern New England, and the only state with a significant harvest is north in Maine, where the seafood practically synonymous with the state has exploded.
Now lobsters keep running to the north and going deeper in the water. Maine might be in trouble after another 5-15 years.
That’s happening not only to lobster, but literally to all marine species.
In the U.S. North Atlantic, fisheries data show that at least 85 percent of the nearly 70 federally tracked species have shifted north or deeper, or both, in recent years when compared to the norm over the past half-century. And the most dramatic of species shifts have occurred in the last 10 or 15 years.
Similar findings in a map of predicted migration – marine species are moving northward to colder waters.
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Q4 Record Sales & Starbucks’ One Problem + Two Opportunities
Starbucks posted a stellar earnings result today, with net revenue at record level of $6.3bn, beating expectations in many aspects.
While a single beat doesn’t indicate a new stage of growth, in the long run there are three issues I think matter the most and should be watched closely.
1 | Problem: Frappuccino’s decline
It was an problem Starbucks facing over the years. People are leaning towards healthier products (at least a very obvious trend in Cali), which usually means less sugar and less calories. That’s a problem for Starbucks’ Frappuccino, as explicitly mentioned in CEO’s presentation in June.
How did/will Starbucks address this? Product Mix & Innovation
Strategy a) Big push for healthier product lines – Nitro Cold Brew & Refresher series etc.
– Nitro Cold Brew “is expected to be available in nearly 1,500 stores in 26 markets by the end of 2017″ (SBUX Jul. 2017 Press Release) -> “[Starbucks is] accelerating this platform to more than 2,800 stores by the close of fiscal year 2018, up to more than 6,000 stores by year-end fiscal year 2019″ (SBUX Q3 Earnings Call Transcript). A 4x availability expansion for cold brew in 3 years.
– Several new products in the Refresher category were introduced, e.g. “Dragonfruit” introduced Jun. 2018, “Pink Drink” introduced last year, etc.
Strategy b) Instagramable & limited edition within the Frappuccino category
– Unicorn Frappuccino (Apr. 19-23, 2017), Zombie Frappuccino (Oct. 26-31, 2017), Christmas Tree Frappuccino (Dec. 7 – 11, 2017), Crystal Ball Frappuccino (Mar. 22-26, 2018), Witch’s Brew Frappuccino (starting Oct. 25 for a limited time while supplies last)… among many others.
– Plus, Starbucks’ new Frappucino recipe has fewer calories and less sugar, part of its efforts to reduce sugar by 25% by 2020.
2 | Opportunity – Digital Interactions
Starbucks Rewards could serve a similar role as Amazon Prime. In past last 3 month, loyalty program accounts for 14% of all transactions and US loyalty members contributed 40% of US sales. That’s what happened in the Amazon case, where its Prime members out-spend non-members significantly.
Digital relationship makes it easier to incentivize purchases, market new products/initiatives, bring in more collaborations (e.g. Spotify, Pokémon GO), expand membership offerings and more.
Starbuck’s push for afternoon consumptions is also facilitated by the digitalized promotions.
The room to grow digital relationships is still large – currently 15.3 million global active members, only representing ~22% of its 70 million global customers base. “Additionally, drive-thru, out-the-window and Mobile Order and Pay combined grew to more than 50% of the way customers are ordering, up more than 10 percentage points in just two years” according to COO.
3 | Opportunity – China Growth
It’s more debatable on Starbucks’ China future. Just want to highlight a few sure things.
Starbucks took full ownership in China East & opened flagship Roastery in Shanghai in 2017 – definitely the right moves here.
China’s coffee consumption will explode, even considering major cities alone. Younger generations will consume more coffee and they will represent an increasing proportion of the overall urban population.
Coffee even has a role to play in China’s GDP growth by boosting workers’ average productivity and the “culture” of working overtime.
Herding effect is stronger in China and “Instagramable & Limited” strategy may provide better outcomes if properly implemented.
Other things worth noticing – Starbucks’ food, packaged goods with Nestlé, next-generation store design, coffee supplies, SKU outside the Starbucks’ core products, etc…
140 -> 280: How Twitter’s Length Limit Shapes The Language Used
Social network platforms such as Twitter and Weibo, are where we post our words/expressions, and is taking an essential role in todays’ Modern Communication.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, they are also providing a feedback loop to change our ways of communication (and our thinking – but that’s another different story). After all, we are one of those animals with natural herding inclinations.
Taking a very simple example – as Twitter was becoming more popular, people started to lean heavily towards the use of new abbreviations, partially due to its 140-word limit. (Similarly, when Blackberries were popular, certain abbreviations were created, used and spread among professionals in texts & emails)
In 2017, Twitter officially made its “140-word limit” a history [Weibo ended the limit in 2016] and doubled the character limit to 280. One resulting impact is that people are spelling out abbreviations and acronyms more often, according to Twitter’s report.
TwitterData also touted that “people are saying ‘please’ (+54%) and ‘thank you’ (+22%) more.” in the first year of doubling limit.
[Something worth noting on the data – 1) need to consider the difference in total number of tweets 2) need to consider other ways of saying ‘please’ and ‘thank you’…]
It is really nice that people could be more friendly and polite (not excessively tho). It would be even nicer if people could inherit their concise and efficient use of language in the 140-word era & all the other positive impacts Modern Communication made on us.
Apple’s Pricer New Products and 2-Way Strategy
Today Apple announced new products of three lines of business – MacBook Air, iPad Pro and Mac mini.
Besides the new features and superior performance, Apple seems to be more addicted to aggressive price tags. Today’s event is the latest episode of a series, starting from the 10-year anniversary model iPhone X last year.
[discussion below is based on the most basic consumer version of each product]
9/12/2017 – iPhone X introduced @ $999, a 30% increase from the high-end phone (iPhone 7 Plus @ $769) one year before
5/27/2018 – updated iPad introduced @ $329, flat with the new iPad debut price in Apr. 2017.
7/12/2018 – updated MacBook Pro @ $1,799; the price seems to be the same as Oct. 2016’s debut price with Touch Bar, but is a 20% increase in terms of available low-end option (MacBook Pro with no Touch Bar @ $1,499).
9/12/2018 – iPhone XR @ $749, increased by 7% ($50) compared to the low-end phone last year (iPhone 8 @$699) ; Apple Watch Series 4 @ $399, increased by 21% ($70) from a year ago @ $329.
10/30/2018 – new MacBook Air @ $1,199, a 20% increase from the old model years ago @ $999; updated iPad Pro @ $799, a 23% ($150) increase from previous Jun. 2017 version @ $649; new Mac mini @ $799, a 60% increase from the old model years ago @ $499; redesigned Apple Pencil 2 @ $129, increased by 30% from $99 when it was introduced 3 years ago
The 2-way strategy looks clear: 1. use entry-level new products (e.g. iPad & iPhone XR) to attract new users and compete with other firm’s often lower-priced products. Educational market and some international markets are important here, especially for new-user growth, ensuring an increasing number of total active users in Apple’s ecosystem and getting more market shares in terms of shipment. So there is barely any increase in price. 2. raise prices by 20-30% in other product lines to keep margin (for example Apple Watch price increase might be more associated with costs) or to compensate lower margins in entry-level products.
Apple’s overall average gross margin from 2016 to present is actually lower than the average from 2014 to 2015 (38.44% vs. 39.63%, down ~120bp), even with higher gross margins from service revenues weighing in more recently.
Yes We Humans Are Vulnerable as Always
Coincidentally, a few incidences involving people’s death/missing happened during the last weekend and became headlines around the world.
In the US, massive shoot developed in a Pittsburgh synagogue, leading to at least 11 deaths.
In Chongqing, China, a bus ran off a bridge into deep water of Yangtze River with an estimate of 15 on board.
In Indonesia, a Boeing-737 MAX with Lion Air crashed into the sea after took off with 189 people on the plane and 0 survivor has been found so far.
[May those taken from us rest in peace]
While there are different reasons (or direct causes) behind these tragedies, they all reminded us of how vulnerable our species is. Technology and society advancements have their own ways of going wrong.
Our ancestors don’t have much direct advantages to survive their world; yet we have conquered and shaped our planet to an ever increasing degree over our history. We can protect ourselves from stronger animals which would otherwise make us their food; we can fight destructive fires which would otherwise burn our settlements; we can cure those deadly pandemics which would otherwise wipe out half of a continent’s population or even an entire regional population…
However, things made to combat threats could go wild and we can’t resist.
The tools we created and the capabilities we built into them dwarf our physical/natural abilities. We are not very much improved genetically as a species over the last 1 million years (and not very much different from genus Pan as genus Home).
Naturally we can’t survive a gunshot and can’t find a way out under deep water from a closed room (e.g. bus, plane).
Although life expectancy has gone from 20 to 40 to 80 and may go to 160 in the future, we are still humans.
Sometimes we just need to forget all those achievements and just be human.
Life is valuable because it is limited. May everyone of us enjoy it.
「Video of the Week」Higher Dimensions of Space
A very good educational discussion of hyperspace on World Science Festival 2010 and a brief of The Elegant Universe by Brian Greene (the book I am finishing).
Two Reflections from Physics on Investing
1.
What Physics says
Intense sub-planck undulations are seen as glimmers of distortions when zooming out, and are smoothed out on a higher level. Vice versa, seemingly flat world could be surprisingly dynamic if viewed in a sufficient close manner.
In the investment world
Fluctuations in prices within a short time frame, however dramatic, could be (at least partially) smoothed out in a longer period of time. Vice versa, more details or clues of changes could possibly be found behind the scene even if prices stay the same in a week/month/year.
2.
What Physics says
While sub-planck variations are cancelling out with each other, some changes are constant and going in certain directions, although might be immaterial/unsensible on a daily basis – e.g. our universe is ever expanding.
In the investment world
Certain underlying trends (company, industry, economy, society, species, planet, etc.) are happening definitely in the long run. Trying to uncover those trends and making investments according to those should be an effective long term approach.
Some Underlying Physics of 5G Network
[personal notes]
-
- Friis Transmission Law
- frequency is inversely proportional to wavelength
- in the case of electromagnetic radiation, v is approximate 3×108 m/s
- Friis Transmission Law
In ITU standards,
Extremely high frequency (EHF) = 30 to 300 GHz in frequency = 10 to 1 mm in wavelength, so called millimeter-wave (mmW)
Ultra high frequency (UHF) = 300 MHz to 3 GHz in frequency = 1 to 0.1 m in wavelength
UHF is where our current mobile networks live on, with 4G mostly on 700 MHz, 1700-2100 MHz, 1900MHz and 2500-2700 MHz across the globe.
Under the Friis Transmission Law, higher frequency has much higher loss (attenuation) in free-space. For mmW, additional transmission losses occur when traveling through the atmosphere are absorbed by molecules of oxygen, water vapor and other gaseous atmospheric constituents.
Important absorption peaks occur at 24 GHz (for water vapor) and 60 GHz (for oxygen).
As range of 5G signals are limited, small cells deployment, collaboration and integration will be essential. Current experiments found a 200-meter range doable.
Appendix – Frequency Allocation
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Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C
On Oct 8, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. And a summary version for policymakers.
1.5°C was the target to strive for, agreed in 2015 Paris Agreement. (countries agreed to limit warming to below 2°C above preindustrial levels by 2100)
However, we are nowhere close.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes.
– Jim Skea of Imperial College London and an IPCC co-author
By “unprecedented changes,” Skea means essentially two things. First, the world needs to start cutting emissions. Instead in 2017, the world’s emissions a new record high. Second, we need to reduce those emissions very quickly. (Quartz)
Many researches have been done to analyze the impacts of a warming of 1.5°C and above.