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NIO Feeling Similar Pain As Tesla – Lack of Demand

When Tesla said “Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter”, NIO wanted to say something similar.

The 2019 Q1 deliveries number was approximately half of that in 2018 Q4. (Still a good job in ramping up production fast)

To compare in numbers:

    • Tesla deliveries is ~15.8x NIO’s in 2019 Q1, ~11.4x  in 2018 Q4
    • Tesla’s automotive revenue in 2018 Q4 was $6.3 billion vs. NIO $0.5 billion:  ~12.6x
    • Current valuation 8x ($40bn vs. $5bn)

NIO said ES6 (to start deliveries in June) should have more than 10,000 pre-orders before deliveries.

Hong Kong Biotech IPOs – How Are They Doing

Filing Date Prospectus Date
HKG:1672 Ascletis Pharma Inc 歌礼制药 05/07/2018 7/20/2018
HKG:2552 Hua Medicine 華領醫藥 06/06/2018 8/31/2018
HKG:1801 Innovent Biologics Inc 信達生物 06/28/2018 10/18/2018
HKG:6185 Cansino Biologics Inc 康希諾生物 7/17/2018 3/18/2019
HKG:6160 Beigene Ltd 百濟神州 7/24/2018 7/30/2018
HKG:1877 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co Ltd 君實生物 08/06/2018 12/11/2018
HKG:2616 CStone Pharmaceuticals 基石藥業 11/11/2018 2/14/2019

An Update on Tesla

In the previous post on Tesla’s productions & deliveries (2018 Q4), a not-so-good Q1 is somehow foreseeable, when Model 3 has little QoQ growth from Q3 to Q4 despite the holiday season and a fade in US tax credit at year-end.

Tesla has more concerning issues.

Depressed Margins

The mass production of Model 3 in 2018 H2 helped to improve the automotive sales gross margin in Q3 and Q4.

However, due to the price reduction in 2019 Q1, less absorption of fixed cost and more international deliveries, the automotive sales gross margin went back to the 18-19% region in 2019 Q1.

While production in China is expected to reach a rate of 2,000 vehicles a week by the end of 2019 (according to Elon Musk), the gross margin of automotive sales will remain <20% for 2019 I think (with model 3 basic)

Tesla said the capital spend (CapEx) per unit of capacity for Shanghai factory is expected to be less than half of that of the Model 3 line in Fremont. Not 50% COGS though.

Model S & X Halved

Number of produced is at ~56% of 2018 Q4.

Number of delivered is at ~44% of 2018 Q4.

Though, Tesla reaffirmed its prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, thanks to the confidence in Model 3.

China Sales

Although China (China and Europe mainly) sales in 2018 decreased compared to 2017, Tesla’s March performance in China is exceptional, with 9,273 in total (Model 3: 7515; Model X: 1490; Model S: 268)

Tesla Vehicles Sold in China 2019 Q1 | Source: Che Jing She, sohu.com

Many attributed the jump in sales to the “one time” price adjustment in China, including a ¥341 drop in the most expansive Model X (P100D), which then corrected by a general 3% increase.

Source: sohu.com

But the ongoing sales numbers is still in question.

China’s EV market has been increasingly competitive. And in April, a video of a parked Model S emitting smoke and bursting into flames seconds later was spreading across China’s Weibo, which doesn’t do any help.

 

Who Is Using Financial Mobile Apps

Paypal released its Venmo active users – 40M

Its’s very impressive compared with comparables.

    • JPMorgan: 51M
    • Bank of America: 37M
    • Wells Fargo: 30M
    • Square Cash App: 15M

While there are different types of fee (revenue) in Venmo like instant transfer and merchant fees, I was wondering if Venmo could do ads as well – like Instagram.

 

Game of Thrones Whiskys

Game of Thrones Single Malt Scotch Whisky Collection | Source: esquire.com

Back in October 2018, HBO and DIAGEO unveiled 9 GOT co-branded whiskies – the new White Walker by Johnnie Walker Blended Scotch Whisky and The Game of Thrones Single Malt Scotch Whisky Collection (8).

Let’s look into some of those whiskies…

lWhite Walker by Johnnie Walker Blended Scotch Whisky | Source: multivu.com

White Walker by Johnnie Walker SRP: $36 for 750ml; ABV 41.7%

    • Rich seasonal flavors of vanilla, red fruits and orchard fruits
    • Single Malts from Cardhu and Clynelish – one of Scotland’s most Northern distilleries, feature in the product.
Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost
House Stark – Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Stark – Dalwhinnie Winter’s Frost; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 43%

Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Cardhu Gold Reserve
House Targaryen – Cardhu Gold Reserve | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Targaryen – Cardhu Gold Reserve; SRP: $39.99 for 750ml; ABV 40%

Game of Thrones Scotch whiskies: Lagavulin 9 Year
House Lannister – Lagavulin 9 Year Old | Source: Diageo

Game of Thrones House Lannister – Lagavulin 9 Year Old; SRP: $64.99 for 750ml; ABV 46%

    • The distillery of Lagavulin officially dates from 1816, when John Johnston and Archibald Campbell constructed two distilleries on the site. One of them became Lagavulin, taking over the other—which one is not exactly known. Records show illicit distillation in at least ten illegal distilleries on the site as far back as 1742 [Wikipedia]