Category: lenS & thoughtS

Sure people can argue they were seeing many absurd things in China over the past couple of years, but in the grand scheme of things, this may also be considered a part of the game.

Just like in some countries, there are various forms of “cost of doing business”.. including developed countries. They are different. So one often needs time to study, and may feel unacceptable.

China is the same; maybe a bit more special – unpredictability of rules is a cost of doing business. Maybe somewhere else, the cost of doing business is “written” in the rules so you know the “cost” before you play. Here, it’s like a higher level of “costs” – changing rules is part of the game & thus this “cost” is hard to calculate/predict. If you can’t calculate costs, and you don’t know the probability, you can’t calculate your return.

However, when you recognize that unpredictability is part of the “game”, then it can become “investable” from time to time.

The “best” player might be able to predict when is investable and when is not.

It’s also okay to be a bit behind. The key is to protect yourself when it’s “uninvestable”, and be reasonably participating when it’s “investable”.

Focus on those periods. You may temporarily forget other “costs”. But you can only pretend that you forget, with a reminder/timer. You have to remember this cost on a deeper level.

The safest period is right after the most dangerous period.

Normally, I prefer not to play poker with Chinese, as they often too good at playing with people.

This doesn’t mean I can’t play. It’s just too energy-consuming.

I have had this concerns about smart cars for quite a few years.

I could be old-school on this, but I like ICE, and I like traditional cars that are not connected / fully controlled by electronics.

The recent Lebanon pager explosions is not only for pagers.

EV batteries could have more powerful explosion.

In addition, EV can move.

More importantly, they can go autonomous.

In some sense, they could become autonomous moving “bombs”, especially if hacked by malicious actors.

Of course, a tank of oil (ICE) can do the same, with some autonomous features.

So it’s really important to build trust between countries and companies.

I don’t know if that’s happening.

Something I recall vividly – during college, I live in a high-rise on campus. Before we push button on an elevator, we look at what’s already be pressed. If one floor above or one floor below has been pressed, we shall not push button. Instead, we walk the stairs.

This is such a good norm that I follow immediately. This is such a powerful norm that brings positive energy to people.

This is actually faster if you run a bit, as the stair is close to elevators.

More importantly, all passengers’ time combined will be saved.

I have never experienced this in China. For myself, I can’t find stairs actually..

I hope this is not only for elevators and we may replicate this spirit in other areas.

Over-consumption is ingrained in Chinese culture.

When Chinese people invite other to dinner, they usually over-order to show hospitality. This is over-consumption.

When Chinese people drink liquor on the dinner table, they can push beyond their bodies’ alcohol limit – drinking beyond the limit is usually seen as sincerity and deep friendship. This is over-consumption.

When Chinese people send gifts to each other during holidays, they often send things that are higher end then they consume. This is over-consumption.

The concept of “over-consumption” doesn’t mean it’s not necessary; indeed, those can be seen as “normal” rather than “over-consumption” for most Chinese. It’s only when you compare those consumption levels to countries like US, you can say it’s above the needed/common level.

If Chinese people are going to normalize their consumptions, there can be an oversupply in those categories.