Category: personal_noteS

Railroads change cities’ fate

Read some interesting discussion on railroad build-outs in early 20th century in China, and its impact on cities.

Before railroads expanded, China’s economy relied a lot of waterways / canals.

Railroads changed the trajectory of cities. Traditional waterborne centers were sidelined and small towns can quickly become new centers, for example,

津浦铁路: Linqing fell; Dezhou rose

京汉铁路: Kaifeng fell; Zhengzhou rose

Additionally, if two railways are built with different standard, they shall create a city, for example,

Shijiazhuang: Zhengtai Railway (metre gauge) intersecting Jinghan line (standard gauge)

Changchun: Chinese Eastern Railway (broad gauge) intersecting South Manchuria Railway (standard gauge).

Are things really bad?

S&P 500 has declined 10% YTD. It dropped as much as 15% till Apr 8, before a tariff pause was announced.

Things have since recovered a bit.

E.g. after Walmart missed guidance on Feb 20, its stock has only dropped 4.1% (Feb 20 to Apr 17). To be fair, the one day drop on earnings is bigger – 6.5%!

Walmart guided 3-4% annual revenue growth, 3.5% to 5.5% adj. operating income growth, flat to 3.6% adj. EPS growth. Considering the 50bps of FX headwind, organic adj. EPS growth is guided at 3.6% at mid-point.

On Apr 9, Walmart pulled Q1 profit guidance, but maintained full year guidance.

 

 

What are people buying?

Clearly not LVMH.

 

The core fashion and leather goods has not been growing much since 2024.

 

Back in 2018, LVMH still grew 10% yoy.

Back in 2008, LVMH still grew 4.3% yoy.

In 2009, LVMH revenue decline by 1% yoy. However, the fashion and leather goods segment still grew ~5% in 2009.

 

Core issue with USD

The unofficial “Mar-a-Lago Accord” raised this issue – that USD as a reserve currency bears additional burden.

Countries bought US Treasury to facilitate trade with another nation (not necessarily the US), thus creating an inelastic demand and causing USD to appreciate.

This appreciation shall weaken US export, especially in the manufacturing sector.

Such phenomena reflect what can be described as a “Triffin world,” after Belgian economist Robert Triffin..

However, when the reserve country is smaller relative to the rest of the world—say, because global growth exceeds the reserve country’s growth for a long period of time—tensions build and the distance between the Triffin equilibrium and the trade equilibrium can be quite large.

Source: A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System

Another interesting point from the artcle.

..value-added taxes are a form of tariffs because they exempt exported goods but tax imported goods.

 

Supply chain – Lululelom

Approximately 40% of our products were manufactured in Vietnam, 17% in Cambodia, 11% in Sri Lanka, 11% in Indonesia, and 7% in Bangladesh,
and the remainder in other regions.

Approximately 35% of the fabric used in our products originated from Taiwan, 28% from China Mainland, 11% from South Korea, and the remainder
from other regions

Special government employee

A Special Government Employee (SGE) can work no more than 130 days during any consecutive 365-day period.

They’re allowed to maintain private-sector jobs or other roles.

They are subject to federal ethics rules, but with some exceptions or leniencies given the part-time nature of their service.

They can be paid.

 

Elon Musk is a SGE.

He won’t be paid though.

 

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/202

Brail set to rise

One thing is certain – US is trying to fight its trade deficits.

Who would be relatively safe from Trump’s tariff threat?

Countries that US runs a trade surplus!

Any examples? Brazil.

If a company wants to relocate its production, Brazil would be a top destination due to the trade surplus US enjoys, which means tariff threat is lower.

Plus, Brail has a big population with a relatively lower labor costs vs other countries like Australia, UK, or Singapore (US runs a trade surplus to those countries as well).