A Special Government Employee (SGE) can work no more than 130 days during any consecutive 365-day period.
They’re allowed to maintain private-sector jobs or other roles.
They are subject to federal ethics rules, but with some exceptions or leniencies given the part-time nature of their service.
They can be paid.
Elon Musk is a SGE.
He won’t be paid though.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/202
One thing is certain – US is trying to fight its trade deficits.
Who would be relatively safe from Trump’s tariff threat?
Countries that US runs a trade surplus!
Any examples? Brazil.
If a company wants to relocate its production, Brazil would be a top destination due to the trade surplus US enjoys, which means tariff threat is lower.
Plus, Brail has a big population with a relatively lower labor costs vs other countries like Australia, UK, or Singapore (US runs a trade surplus to those countries as well).
If you look at 2023 vs 2022 export data, you will find China’s export to Russia surged by almost 50% in USD terms.
Meanwhile, EU and US bought less from China in 2023 vs 2022 – China’s export to EU and US dropped by double digit.
In 2024, that trend is gone.
In USD terms, China’s export to Russia, US, and EU all rose by 3-5% in 2024 vs 2023.
Assuming buybacks & dividends are “required”, the unallocated cash flows are matching the capex figure already.
This means additional room to add capex is limited.
Put it in another way, free cash flows after shareholder returns are near 0.
For example, Alphabet got $125bn op. cash flow in 2024, paid $53bn in capex, $62bn in buyback and $7bn in dividend. FCF after shareholder returns is only $3bn, or 2.5% of its operating cash flow.
Meta, with 10% unallocated operating cash flow in 2024, will increase its capex by 50% in 2025. If Meta’s op. cash flow grows 10% in 2025, then FCF after shareholder returns in 2025 is only $3bn, or 3% of its operating cash flow.
Microsoft in calendar year 2024, has $10 billion of unallocated free cash flow. But that should be smaller if looking at its fiscal year 2024.
Berkshire paid the most corporate income tax in the US, or about “5% of what all of corporate America paid”.
Buffett complained a bit about US fiscal recklessness and the inability of fixed income securities to protect buying power.
Buffett still prefers equity – but he didn’t say public equity!
“P/C insurance growth is dependent on increased economic risk. No risk – no need for insurance. ”
Berkshire borrowed “fixed” rate in yen! How beautiful the transactions were. But if Japan’s interest rate were to rise significantly in the future (when Berkshire needs to refinance), will Berkshire find those Japanese dividend less attractive?
Wage increases due to inflation and negotiation reduced BNSF earnings, in a degree more than Buffett expected. Revenues also fell.
Buffett increased holdings in Japan’s “conglomerates” – these companies are diversified, repurchasing their shares, receiving lower wages at C-level, and reluctant to issue shares. Those purchases began in 2019.
There were some problems with BHE – no fixed return as a utility, and with rising climate change induced problems.
Stick with wonderful businesses! “Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable.”
Mar 3 – both Nvidia and Broadcom shall use Intel as a foundry to produce chips.
This should add additional pressure to gross profit margin to both companies.
Feb 25 – Apple shall invest $500bn in the US in the next 4 years, including a new advanced manufacturing facility in Houston to produce servers for Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute.
Apple also supported billions of $$ for TSMC’s Fab 21 facility in Arizona.
Not to mention the rollback of those DEI policies across companies, e.g.
When TTI’s founder was considering a sale, Berkshire was preferred over competitors and other financial buyers, as Berkshire won’t cut back-end jobs and won’t be a reseller.
“Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts.” – totally agree.
Berkshire’s structure – “Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership.”
There are two different type of individual investors with Berkshire – those own and trade stocks, and those “who simply trust us to represent their interests, whatever the future may bring”.
Berkshire has become the No.1 owner of US PP&E. The runner-up is AT&T.
Buffett and Munger on repurchases – “neither of us feels any urgency to buy an
estimated $1 of value for a very real 95 cents.”