A random thought while drying my hair –
Whether your hair (bangs) goes left or right is probably determined by which hand you use to hold the hairdryer in the first place / mostly of the time.
Actually, for me at least, I never change that choice of hand.
The more I use one hand, the easier to use that hand again. I feel awkward to use the other hand.
Thus that (always using the same hand) will pretty much determine how my hair parts.
From Our Dollar, Your Problem
1/ European countries’ bond is not same as US Treasury debt. EU bonds might be, but there is no euro-wide fiscal authority with significant spending and taxation powers
2/ no euro-wide deposit insurance scheme
3/ each country has its own bankruptcy laws
Paul Tudor Jones on the AI Bubble Debate by Bloomberg
The only way to reduce debt to GDP is to have obviously nominal growth exceed your interest rate.
– Paul Tudor Jones
Here are notes for Paul’s interview and my opinions
1/ FSD approval in China.
I have seen various posts on Chinese social medias that Tesla FSD is being updated in China. Not many news mentions though. This was previewed by Elon Musk back in Nov 2025 and recently in Davos.
3/ Trump Administration Pushes Out Key Officials Focused on China Tech Threat – WSJ
4/ Medtronic and Mindray North America broaden strategic partnership
5/ H200 China approval after US approval
6/ BYD and ExxonMobil signed a long-term strategic cooperation memorandum on 26 January
—
Edit:
Jensen Huang on Jan 29 said H200 has yet to be approved in China.
Coordinated intervention
Reports that the New York Fed did “rate checks” (often interpreted as a potential prelude to intervention) plus Japan officials stressing coordination with the U.S. put the market on alert.
Previous examples
In March 2011, the G7 announced concerted intervention after extreme yen volatility following Japan’s earthquake.
What was happening in 2011?
Markets anticipated Japanese insurers and investors would bring money back to Japan to pay claims and fund rebuilding.
What’s happening now and why US wants a stronger yen now?
Excess volatility and disorderly FX moves can harm economic/financial stability
Japan’s finance minister has said the U.S. Treasury secretary shared concerns about “one-sided depreciation” of the yen, which signals the U.S. doesn’t want to be seen as tolerating a move that could be framed as giving Japan an unfair export boost.
A weak yen can worsen import-cost inflation and political stress in Japan.
Some exit from Japan might cause the temporary yen weakness (e.g. China selling).
China’s fixed investments in past 5 years
China reported 社会消费品零售总额 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (a narrower concept than consumption) is 501,202 亿元 in 2025, up 3.7% yoy.
China reported 社会消费品零售总额 is 487,895 亿元 in 2024.
From 2020 to 2025, fixed investments % of GDP has lowed from over 50% to 35%.
Meanwhile, 社会消费品零售总额 finally surpassed fixed investments in absolute amount in 2025, by a think margin.
Also see previous post on consumption: When we are saying China needs to boost household consumption
Online physical goods consumption cagr is almost 0% from 2023-25. [reported 6.5% and 5.2% growth in 2024 and 2025]
2023年，实物商品网上零售额130174亿元
2024年，实物商品网上零售额130816亿元
2025年，实物商品网上零售额130923亿元
Overall e-commerce growth, which is ~2% cagr 2023-25. [reported 7.2% and 8.6% growth in 2024 and 2025]
2025年，全国网上零售额159722亿元
2023年，全国网上零售额154264亿元
Ex-auto consumption growth is 3.3% cagr 2023-25. [reported 3.8% and 4.4% growth in 2024 and 2025]
2025年，除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元
2023年，除汽车以外的消费品零售额422881亿元
Accumulated CPI is 0.5% from end of 2022 to end of 2025 (36 month).
1/ US equity
S&P ended at 6,845.50, with ~18% total return in 2025, or doubling CICC’s return prediction.
我们测算，在乐观预期 10%盈利增长的驱动下，标普 500 或从当前的 5800 上涨 8~10%至 6200~6400 点左右。
– CICC Nov 2024
2/ US treasury
In 2025, US 10yr treasury is rarely below 4%; ended ~25bps higher than CICC prediction.
10 年美债利率合理中枢为 3.8-4%
– CICC Nov 2024
3/ US dollar
In 2025, US dollar index is rarely above 100 after Apr tariff announcement, lower than CICC prediction.
我们测算的中枢为 102-106
– CICC Nov 2024
4/ Copper & Oil
Oil declined in 2025, but copper is up 50%.
大宗中性偏多，等待催化剂。铜的需求更多与中国相关，油则更多受地缘和供给影响。从中美信用周期角度，在目前点位进一步看空意义不大，但向上动力和时间目前仍不明朗，需要等待催化剂。
– CICC Nov 2024
5/ Gold
Gold is extremely strong, ending 2025 with near $4,300 to over $4,400 per ounce, a lot higher than CICC prediction
黄金短期中性。黄金已经超出我们基于实际利率和美元的基本面模型测算可支撑的 2400-2600 美元/盎司。但地缘局势、央行购金和局部“去美元”需求带来了额外的风险溢价。我们测算，俄乌局势以来溢价中枢上行至 100-200
美元。长期依然可以作为不确定性对冲，但短期我们建议中性。– CICC Nov 2024
US
10yr treasury: 4.1%
Fed funds rate: 3.50%-3.75%
CPI (Nov): 2.7%
The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November.
Real interest rate: 1.4% long term, ~1% short term
China
10yr treasury: 1.8%
7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: 1.4%
CPI (Nov): 0.7%
But Nov MoM CPI is -0.1%.
Real interest rate: 1.1% long term, ~0.7% short term
However, China CPI was just 0.2% in Oct and mostly flat or negative yoy before Oct 2025.
Within that, 贵金属饰品 probably contributed 0.3% or more, as gold and silver prices are up significantly.
Thus, China real interest rate is probably around 1.5% or more or long term and 1.1% for short term, which would be similar to the US right now.
