Tag: Finance

JPM Coin…

So JP Morgan has created its coin… JPM Coin

Three early applications:

  • Cross-border payments. The cryptocurrency will enable Chase to settle international payments between clients in real-time, and at any time of day (which does not happen today).
  • Securities transactions. Rather than relying on wires to buy a debt issuance–which would create a time gap between when a transaction settles and when investors get paid–institutional investors can use the token to generate instant settlements.
  • Transaction consolidation. Clients of  J.P Morgan’s treasury services business will be able to replace the dollars they hold in subsidiaries across the world, enabling them to move money to subsidiaries around the world with greater fluidity.

“The JPM Coin will be issued on Quorum Blockchain and subsequently extended to other platforms. JPM Coin will be operable on all standard Blockchain networks.” — JPM

Here is what others are saying/reporting…

“In trials set to start in a few months, a tiny fraction of that will happen over something called “JPM Coin,” the digital token created by engineers at the New York-based bank to instantly settle payments between clients.” — CNBC

“For years, Chase–by itself and with the other big banks–has invested in reducing its reliance on legacy payments networks. Coin, like previous endeavors such as clearXchange, appears to be another example of that strategy to directly control the manner and method by which payments activities flow. If successful, Coin and the Chase Quorum blockchain could find many other uses.” — Charles Potts, Managing Director, First Performance

“It’s a competitive approach by Jamie Dimon to compete directly with Western Union in the $600 billion remittance market where Chase holds the #2 spot and Bank of America is on their heels. Ripple has done all the hard work by paving the way for a blockchain coin network. Our US payment systems are proprietary and not interoperable–the only way to seriously compete is a syndicate like Early Warning with Zelle and The Clearinghouse.” — Travis Dulaney, CEO, PayFi

“It’s an ecosystem play pure and simple. It’s about reducing costs and securing market share.” — Bradley Leimer, Co-Founder, Unconventional Ventures

“It really isn’t an ‘end run’–it’s more like creating a whole new playing field. It’s an acceleration of the continuing erosion of money fiefdoms. Due to margin pressures, money movement will eventually become a free utility. What the JPM Coin starts to enable is the elimination of the payment rails–which is really just a connection of ledgers–because with blockchain, there’s just one ledger. Once you have that shared ledger, the applications go beyond institutional payments to any payment type like remittances.” — James Wester, Research Director, Worldwide Blockchain Strategies, IDC

“The bank is also running a blockchain payments trial launched in conjunction with Australia’s ANZ and the Royal Bank of Canada. As reported, the three banks set up the project in October 2017, aiming to slash both the time and costs required for interbank payments using traditional methods. Called the Interbank Information Network (IIN), the platform is also built on Quorum – which itself may eventually be spun off into its own enterprise.” — CoinDesk

A data/IT system named with “coin”

Think about Gold and US Dollar in the history – Congress acted on Hamilton’s recommendations in the Coinage Act of 1792, which established the dollar as the basic unit of account for the United States; 1900, with the passage of the Gold Standard Act, US government guaranteed the dollar as convertible to gold

Read More On…

The Race in Aerospace – Positions of Private Equity Firms

~$40bn Apollo acquisition – GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), GE’s aircraft leasing operations

  • Bidder: Apollo, an offer as much as $40 billion according to Bloomberg & Reuters
  • GECAS has a fleet of more than 1,900 planes, which it provides to airlines under long-term leases.
  • 1/4/2019

~$1bn KKR investment – Altavair, focusing on the acquisition of new and used commercial aircraft for leasing to passenger airlines and cargo operators

  • Investor: KKR, $1 billion capital commitment to acquire commercial aircraft in partnership with Altavair + a 50% interest in Altavair; Altavair will be KKR’s partner for aircraft leasing investments going forward
  • Since its inception in 2003, Altavair has completed over $8 billion in commercial aircraft lease transactions with over 40 airline customers in 27 countries representing over 200 individual Boeing and Airbus aircraft
  • 1/3/2019, KKR Commits to Invest $1 Billion with Altavair

~$5bn Carlyle acquisition – StandardAero, largest independent maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) providers

  • Bidder: Carlyle, for more than $5 billion (Reuters) from Veritas
  • Veritas acquired StandardAero from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd (DAE) for $2.1 billion, including debt, in 2015
  • Carlyle first acquired StandardAero in 2004. In 2007, DAE simultaneously purchased StandardAero and Landmark Aviation, also an aircraft maintenance services company, from Carlyle in a transaction valued at $1.8 billion, including debt.
  • 12/18/2018, The Carlyle Group to Acquire Leading Aircraft Engine MRO Provider StandardAero from Veritas Capital

~$15bn Apollo acquisition – Arconic (ARNC), aluminum products used around the world by aerospace manufacturers

  • Bidder 1: Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
  • (winning) Bidder 2: Apollo, seems winning with a potential acquisition price of $22; also considered is a spin-off of its cladding operation with potential liability from the Grenfell Tower fire of two years ago.
  • 10/8/2018, early report on bidders
Arconic in 2018 | Source: Bloomberg

Tough Year for Stock Markets, Okay for Wine and Art

US Equity in 2018

S&P 500 -6.2%

Dow Jones Industrial Average -5.6%

Nasdaq Composite -3.9%

In the fourth quarter specifically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 13.97 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively, their worst quarterly performances since the fourth quarter of 2008. The Dow notched its worst period since the first quarter of 2009, falling nearly 12 percent. (CNBC)

Meanwhile, assets like fine wine and art are gaining

Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index – 2018 | Source: liv-ex.com

According to The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index, which tracks 1,000 wines from across the world, the price has been on a steady rise since May 2016.

People who put money into art at the beginning of the year saw an average gain of 10.6% by the end of November, according to Art Market Research’s Art 100 Index. (WSJ)

And in December’s Art Basel in Miami Beach, one of the world’s preeminent art fairs, things seemed going smooth. In a detailed report, owners of Mark Rothko’s Untitled (Yellow, Orange, Yellow, Light Orange) (1955), a painting purchased at Sotheby’s in 2014 for $36.6 million, was asking $50 million for the painting and said was on reserve later on. “The price tag is high even for the elite Art Basel franchise of fairs.”

In a summary…

Luxury Goods Outperform as Markets Swoon | Source: WSJ

 

Canada Housing Problems

Talks around Canada’s housing market have been surging – about its booming prices and about its looming risks.

The price side – directly shown by its pricing index from Statistics Canada – plotted below from Jan. 2006 – Oct. 2018.

Canada Housing Price Index | Source: Author, Statistics Canada

Toronto’ prices are the most wild in among Canada’s housing markets – nearly doubled in 39 month from Jan. 2014 to Apr. 2017.

Toronto home prices 2014 – 2017 | Source: Financial Post

The price itself is not actually something to worry about. But as FT argued, “House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.” Similarly on Huffpost, “Toronto’s house price index doubled between 2011 and 2017, even as household incomes grew by single percentage points.”

And let’s take a look at the housing debt level – the risky side.

Bank of Canada said the two trillion dollars of debt is around 170% of disposable income.

I double checked with OEDC data here.

Here is a historical comparison –

and housing debt versus GDP – just passed 100% for 2017 Q2.

The regulator took actions to cool down the market.

The short-sellers/investors took theirs too.

Home Capital is at the center, Canada’s largest provider of home loans to the newly arrived and self-employed.

Home Capital Stock Price (C$) | Source: Bloomberg

In Jun. 2017, Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle Berkshire committed to acquire a 38.39% stake as part of a rescue package (C$2.4 billion, including C$400 million equity and C$2 billion credit line with 9% interest rate). The first tranche of equity investment acquired a 19.99% ownership.

However as the second tranche of equity investment wan’t approved, now in Dec. 2018, the updates came as Buffett would sell most of its stake and reduce ownership level to less than 10%.

Home Capital is under control and stabilized now.

A single crisis is easier to solve than a systematic problem between housing prices and local income.

 

Softbank Telecomm Unit IPO

Shares closed nearly 15% below the ¥1,500 initial offering price

The IPO raised ¥2.65 trillion ($23.6 billion), second only to the 2014 listing of China’s Alibaba. (WSJ article)

SoftBank Group has larger debt and commitments – investment as an obiligation.

Cash is the paramount consideration, especially in an interest rate rising environment.

Connection with huawei and uses of its equipments added to the hit.

Does US have 3% Checking Account?

Robinhood recently prepared to launch its stunning checking & saving offering for cash management with a 3% rate.

That is an astonishing number compared with regular checking accounts (and saving accounts). Industry average is 0.08 percent yield on U.S. checking accounts and the 0.1 percent average on savings accounts (find more about rates here on bankrate.com).

Comparison provided by Robinhood | Source: checking.robinhood.com cached by Google

However, the comparison didn’t last long… as Robinhood pulled back and slowed down it official launch. The center question is that “accounts look like bank accounts, (but) they aren’t.”  Below is the description at the bottom of the website.

Robinhood Financial LLC and Robinhood Crypto, LLC are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc. Equities and options are offered to self-directed customers by Robinhood Financial. Robinhood Financial is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which protects securities customers of its members up to $500,000 (including $250,000 for claims for cash). Explanatory brochure available upon request or at www.sipc.org. Cryptocurrency trading is offered through an account with Robinhood Crypto. Robinhood Crypto is not a member of FINRA or SIPC. Cryptocurrencies are not stocks and your cryptocurrency investments are not protected by either FDIC or SIPC insurance

It is not FDIC protected and it is reported that – “the head of the Securities Investor Protection Corp. (SIPC) told CNBC on Friday that the start-up didn’t contact his office ahead of the product launch, and to his knowledge Robinhood had not contacted the SEC, either.”

While regulation is an issue, another question is – whether 3% reasonable / doable?

Historical CD Interest Rates – 1984-2016 | Source: bankrate.com

US has been through years of low-interest environment; people are not familiar with 10% or 5% interest rate back then. But after Fed’s meeting this week, it is highly likely that there is another 25bp raise, pushing fed funds rate into a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent.

Here is a brief history of four increases this year (updated in Jan 2019)

Date Increase Decrease Level (%)
December 20 25 0 2.25-2.50
September 27 25 0 2.00-2.25
June 14 25 0 1.75-2.00
March 22 25 0 1.50-1.75

And a history – Intended federal funds rate change, 1990 to present.

I should say 3% in 2019 is not undoable. But the core difference is a marketing issue. Robinhood could invest in higher yield products.

But in consumers’ view, it is truly disrupting and may level up the playground for all players in this field.

The time of easy money is gone. The startups or new initiatives with better and sustainable solutions (usually tech-oriented) are attacking the incumbents. Robinhood may or may not be the one (and this may not be the exact right approach), but the industry needs to be prepared.