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Why books (& reading) are one of the best investments?

You can get 20% return on stocks per year if you are as good as Buffet.

But books and reading have a much higher return!

The cost of a book is basically cost-plus, including those paid to the author. It’s relatively small sum of money – likely less than a meal.

The price is similar for every one. It’s up to each reader to capture all the upside to him/herself. No price discrimination.

The paper and the printing are basically similar across books – different words on a single page don’t mean they cost differently. Therefore, an amazing book costs the same as any other books (well, royalties, length, quality of paper may differ, but you know what I mean).

Put it another way, a good reader can get higher value from reading books, without increasing costs, if he/she can pick “high value” books (for him/herself).

It’s like Nvidia pays similar prices as others for the same wafer to TSMC, but gets higher value/return from it.

Besides money, readers are also investing their time. So, the return of reading a book could be even higher if he/she can read more efficiently, reducing time spent while still get most of the stuff.

It’s like fitting a few more chips onto one wafer.

What’s more impressive? TSMC has a high market share and some bargain power, but printing books seem to be very fragmented and has very good availability.

Enjoy reading great books! That’s likely a higher return investment than Nvidia selling chips.

 

 

Wanda Commercial refinancing YTD

Sources

  • 年初融美元债$700mn,12+% yield
    • 2025 $400mn @11%
    • 2026 $300mn @11%
  • 境内中期票据 15 亿 rmb,6.8%
  • 卖万达电影股权,两笔共40多亿rmb,
    • 一笔中国儒意(背后腾讯出钱)
    • 一笔是东方财富的老婆
  • 卖5座万达广场股权;price? to 大家保险 etc
  • 发行ABS; didn’t work
  • Net income ~$1bn in 23H1

Uses

  • 还40亿 rmb 票据
  • 还$400mn Jul 2023美元债@6.875%
  • Sep 回购 5.58% 38亿puttable境内债 20万达01

Upcoming: Jan 2024 $600mn 7.25% note

Potential: didn’t IPO -> to repurchase 30bn rmb

Is China’s mobile gaming market growing?

Yes.

In 2023 summer (July and Aug), China’s mobile gaming market grew 57% yoy (!).  China’s overall gaming market grew 46.1% yoy in August.

That’s an amazing number, considering it’s quite mature and developed already.

The base effect is obvious though. China’s most recent crackdown on video gaming back to Aug 2021 lasted around a year (or15-month if consider Tencent’ new commercial license as an end).

New game license issuance resumed in Apr 2022, stopped once again in May 2022, and resumed in June 2022. However, big companies like NetEase didn’t get new commercial game licenses until September 2022, and Tencent waited until November 2022 (no new game license issued in Oct 2022).

The crackdown led to yoy decline of ~24% in summer 2022 (July and Aug) for mobile gaming, which is ~70% of the market.

However China mobile gaming is reaching a new high now. It’s 20% higher than 2021 summer.

Comparing with 2020 summer, 3-yr CAGR would be 8.9% for mobile gaming.

BYD export machine running hot; EU’s investigation of Chines EVs; disagreement between Scholz and Macron

BYD started to report overseas sales in July 2022.

So we have the first YoY quarterly number: over 300% yoy growth! (over 4x)

Overseas volume as % of total volume grew from 3% in 2022q3 to 8.6% in 2023q3 – still looks to be a low number.

UBS claimed that BYD has “a sustainable ~25% cost advantage for BYD over legacy competitors”. (Sep 2023)


A few days after UBS report, EU launched investigation into Chinese EV subsidies.

Meanwhile, as Bernstein and WSJ pointed out, not all of those come from Chinese automakers; Tesla, and other European JVs in China exported a ton. Bernstein’s number says Tesla’s export from China to EU is 10x BYD’s.

BMW’s China JV reported that it exported 16,595 units, mainly X3 BEV models, to overseas in the first half of 2023 (didn’t say where, but Bernstein puts BMW China JV EU export number higher than BYD’s EU export).


Unlike French peers, German carmakers still sell a lot of ICE cars in China, and exported EV from China JVs. So Scholz is taking a different view vs. Macron. That’s just one of the issues the two need to reconcile/solve – the other two issues are energy bills and defense, laid out by Politico.

Macau visitors during 2023 golden week holidays

2023 Oct golden week has 8 days (Sep 29 – Oct 6). Mainland visitors arrivals totaled at 709,079.

This number is 4.5x 2022, which was impacted by covid.

When comparing with pre-covid, 2023 is 10% higher than 2017, 3% lower than 2018, and 11% lower than 2019.

Looks okay; no signs of pent-up demand; consistent with other 2023 recovery data.


2027-2022 Oct golden week

How much is home-made coffee vs. Starbucks?

just calculating coffee beans here.

1 grande Starbucks americano (ice/hot), typically $3-4 globally now, comes with 3 shots. (Tall has 2 shots)

1 shot = 7 grams of coffee beans

1 grande americano has 21 grams of coffee beans


just bought some beans (illy, Arabica, Etiopia). Price may wary, but for 250g it’s  ~$10-15

250g can make 10-12 serves of previously calculated grande americano

each serve (grande americano) costs ~$1 of coffee beans


using larger bags of cheaper beans, e.g. $55.5 for 2260g (see below), each serve of grande americano uses ~$0.5 coffee beans


Again, lots of stuff come into play: convenience, time, other ingredients, logo, etc.


Starbucks item prices: https://www.fastfoodprice.com/menu/starbucks-prices/ (Grande americano is $3.45)


Tall latte price globally

 

Investing in China: what are the differences? (1) regulation and justice

It’s difficult to understand each regulation. But I think there is a better, more fundamental and actually easier way – through the lens of justice.

However, there seems to be a difference between what China focuses on vs. the West when it comes to justice. In short, I feel that China weighs a fair outcome over procedural justice.

This difference could partially be explained by the fact that China doesn’t always operate based on exact rules. It could be hard to develop a robust law system in a short period of time and in an evolving society. In fact, rules can be modified to suit the needs, which is the opposite of mainstream western belief. 

When big global companies may get away with perfectly executed deals, Chinese companies may face the consequences afterwards (even before regulation is in place). After all, trouble may come in various forms.

That being said, justice is important. A company may build goodwill to offset any negative consequences it may create, especially formalized in the future. For example, Tencent’ gaming business is lucrative and from time to time is seen to have negative impacts on teenagers. Although Tencent could be procedurally perfect and compliant, it may not be enough. I believe it’s the WeChat etc. that brings a good amount of positive progresses that provide a cushion. Therefore, as those balanced out, it’s not injustice for Tencent to make such a large sum of money. 

Cells, individuals, tissues, communities

Cells to tissues are like individuals to communities.

All those tissues form different organs and a body – just like communities (corporations, institutions, all sorts of organizations, etc.) fulfilling different functions and creating a society.

Cells age. So do we. Cells can be renewed while performing the same duty. It’s just like human beings reproducing and dying.

Cells evolve, so we are  more capable than the creatures hundreds of millions of years ago. People learn, so civilizations grow and build on their own.

Perfect Diary or YSG? The dilemma for brand advertising

Following up on the previous blog, Perfect Diary seems to be at the perfect stage to do more brand advertising.

Two problems tho –

1/ what is the core message? Compared with 花西子, perfect diary seems to be less special in terms of message it sends.

2/ YSG wants to be the pipe or the platform. To do so, it needs resources to diversify, which inherently means the lower importance of perfect diary.

It seems to me that the conflict is also due to the short time frame the management has. To go for the ultimate J-curve of perfect diary and to become the holding group with successful tiered brands in a few years = a extremely tough goal.

If we draw a matrix – categories on the x-axis and premium level on the y axis, plus female/male on the z-axis.. long way to go.

Brand advertising in 新国货时代

Many new consumer brands in China are at the inflection point now. While they are often good at initial traffic generation and use of KOLs, brand advertising seems still an effective and a necessary step to go mainstream. It’s also the ultimate battle that can build brand equity into a long-term competitive advantage.

Three takeaways:

1/ buying traffic is cost-effective and useful in early stage to test and improve the product. But it seems to have a decreasing marginal return after certain level – this is also where brand advertising should kick in.

2/ brand advertising may take time to be “effective” when non-linear growth can be observed. Three key factors to determine whether it will work / how long it’s gonna take: 产品完成度,种草基础,渠道渗透

3/ for new segments, first mover or the current market share leader doesn’t effectively mean it’s the winner – as long as there is no clear leadership in consumers’ mind. The first to establish a strong association or become the cognitive referent is the key.