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Germline Genetic Testing: BRCA

Genetic testings have different significances and it seems that BRCA is currently the only gene of hard demand (CDx) in cancer treatments among germline testings.


Myriad and AstraZeneca

Back in Dec 2014, AstraZeneca received FDA approval for the first PARP inhibitor LYNPARZA, as monotherapy in patients with deleterious or suspected deleterious germline BRCA-mutated advanced ovarian cancer who have been treated with three or more prior lines of chemotherapy.

Concurrent with the approval of LYNPARZA, FDA has approved the BRACAnalysis CDx (Myriad Genetics) for the qualitative detection and classification of variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes.

Myriad is a pioneer in genetic testing, especially for BRCA. BRACAnalysis CDx is blood-based, using PCR and Sanger sequencing to gauge single nucleotide variants and small indels, and multiplex PCR to assess large deletions and duplications.

Foundation Medicine and Clovis Oncology

In Dec 2016, Foundation Medicine’s FoundationFocus CDxBRCA was approved by FDA as the first NGS-based companion diagnostic, for Clovis Oncology’s PARP inhibitor Rubraca (rucaparib), for patients with deleterious BRCA mutation (germline and/or somatic)-associated advanced ovarian cancer who have been treated with two or more chemotherapies.

Myriad and Clovis

In April 2017, Myriad and Clovis Oncology announced the CDx collaboration on Rubraca. “The companion diagnostic test approved with Rubraca does not discriminate between germline and somatic mutations. Knowledge of germline status is important to provide patients appropriate counseling.”

Myriad and Pfizer

In Oct 2018, the Myriad’s BRCA test was also approved as CDx for Pfizer’s PARP inhibitor Talzenna, for patients with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (mBC) who have a germline BRCA mutation.

Expanded PARP usage

In Jan 2018, AstraZeneca’s LYNPARZA received approval for expanded usage in breast cancer, for patients with germline breast cancer susceptibility gene (BRCA) mutated, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer, who have been previously treated with chemotherapy. Patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer should have been treated with a prior hormonal (endocrine) therapy or be considered inappropriate for endocrine treatment.

FDA also expanded the approval of the BRACAnalysis CDx, an approved companion diagnostic to Lynparza, to include the detection of BRCA mutations in blood samples from patients with breast cancer.

In Dec 2019, Lynparza was approved in the US as a 1st-line maintenance treatment of germline BRCA-mutated metastatic pancreatic cancer, for patients whose disease has not progressed on at least 16 weeks of a 1st-line platinum-based chemotherapy regimen. Myriad’s CDx usage was also expanded.


While the market expanded, more players are coming to this field. Since 2013, there is a growing number of labs providing BRCA testings – mostly are not for CDx.

Prices are very different for example.

Image result for brca testing price

But overtime, the ASP is definitely coming down.

Image result for brca testing price 2018

Image result for brca testing price 2018

Meanwhile, FDA approved 23andMe’s DTC BRCA genetic testing in March 2018 (again, not for CDx) – testing for 3 BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations to identify women at increased lifetime risk of breast cancer.

Drugstore Chains In China Adding More Franchised Locations

Two leading national drugstore chains keeps adding more franchised stores than directly operated stores.

Franchised model is more efficient in

    1. leveraging existing distribution network -> improving its utilization
    2. aggregating demand & volume -> better pricing terms from manufacturers
    3. distributing store management (inventory + O2O sales + payment + CRM) software -> higher margin fees

China Drugstores: # Of Stores, Drugstore Chains, Share Of Top 10 Chains

The independent drugstores will find it harder to compete and the percentage of drugstore chain’s locations will steadily increase.

The “50% chain rate by 2020” target was set in 2016. In US and Japan, the percentage of chain stores is over 70%.

Source: www.sfdaic.org.cn/statistics

The market share in sales for top chains keeps increasing, as their sales grow faster than industry average.

Source: 中国药店,中信证券

* the total drug retail sales data is a little different from the previous post China Medicine End Market Sales (2018: 391.9 vs. 400.2 billion RMB, 2% higher in this report)

China Medicine End Market Sales Data

Data estimated by 米内网 (menet.com), which was formerly 中国医药经济信息网, created in 1997 by (formerly) CFDA Southern Research Institute.

According to the data, the overall end market sales grew 6.3% to 1713 billion yuan (or ~$250 billion) in 2018.

Retailer channels continues to grew at above-GDP rate (7.5% in 2018).

The data is not including sales in private hospitals/clinics, etc. The overall sales would be 2 trillion yuan for 2018 if included.

Quanterix: A Growth Story Just Began (1)

Quanterix (Nasdaq: QTRX) is building a razor-blade model just like Illumina. With its ultra sensitive detection, Quanterix is revolutionizing immunoassay especially in neurology, improving the industry’s capabilities to access/evaluate related molecular data, understand diseases better and designing drugs/trials around it.

In recent quarters, Quanterix saw a continued growth in its consumables, which is the bread-and-butter due to its recurring nature and higher margin (than selling instruments.

Of course, the instrument sales are important, as the cumulative count (or installed base) should drive more recurring revenues in consumables.

Currently, the consumables revenue / instrument is ~$70k per year.

Online Higher Education (4) – Online Degrees

Online Degrees Before MOOCs

While the previous posts (2) (3) summarized the birth and development (especially the model of fee-for-certificates) of MOOCs, online degrees, as a more “formal” segment of online higher educations, was actually born before 2011.

The boom can be attributed to the 1. advancement in technology infrastructure (higher internet speed, 4G, streaming, etc.) 2. people’s behavior changes such as the growing adoption of smart personal devices (smartphones, etc.) 3. increasingly burdensome higher education costs in the US and associated student debts 4. the incentives provided by the regulatory environment such as the re-authorized Higher Education (Opportunity) Act in 2008.

Distance education: US Department of Education shall not require an accreditor to have separate standards, procedures or policies for evaluation of distance education. Accreditors must, however, require institutions that offer distance education to establish that a student registered for a distance education course is the same student who completes and receives credit for it.

Then, there emerged a group of companies called Online Program Management (OPM) providers, with 2U being the current leader.

2U

The first of its kind was launched in 2008 – MAT@USC,  Master of Arts in Teaching Program, developed by the USC Rossier School of Education in partnership with 2tor Inc. (the company later its changed name into 2U Inc. in 2012)

The basic idea is to replicate the degree offerings in the online format as much as possible. Private companies like 2tor will invest upfront and share the majority of future tuitions. The programs costs were a little cheaper (but at the similar level) than the traditional on-campus version.

The agreement of MAT@USC program provides a glimpse into the structure. As mentioned in the announcement, “tuition for MAT@USC is the same as the USC on-campus program at approximately $1,300 per credit.”

In 2012, when MOOCs were getting more attentions, 2tor also raised more capital and expanded the partnerships. It raised $26 million Series D in April and had 5 programs in agreement: USC’s Rossier School of Education for the MAT@USC mentioned before, USC’s Masters of Social Work Program (MSW@USC) added in 2010, Georgetown’s nursing program (Nursing@Georgetown) launched in Spring 2011, UNC’s MBA program (MBA@UNC) starting in July 2011, and announced the addition of UNC’s Master of Public Administration (MPA@UNC) right before this financing round. (See appendix for the current tuition of these five programs)

As we shall see in the next post that, as OPMs grew, at the same time, MOOCs were expanding into OPM’s fields, partnering with universities to offer degrees related programs.

At the same time, they are also trying to provide non-university based higher education, usually for/with companies in industries.

Born with different origins and offerings, MOOCs and OPMs are now coming to fight similar battles and creating full-service online higher education platforms:

    1. fee-for-certificates
    2. degrees-based programs
    3. career-oriented continuing education

To be continued


Other more recent highly watched events for 2U included:

May 2017 2U to acquire GetSmarter for approximately $103 million, which provides online short courses in partnership with universities – just like what MOOCs did.

August 2017 HBS, SEAS and FAS partner with 2U, Inc., to offer the Harvard Business Analytics Program. The first cohort of students is expected start classes in March 2018. The total cost of the program—not including travel and lodging expenses—to be $51,500 based on current program fee rates.

January 2018 2U and WeWork announced a broad partnership: e.g. WeWork spaces are available to 2U students enrolled in graduate degree programs; WeWork members and employees can access $5 million in scholarships to enroll in 2U programs, etc.

April 2019 2U to Trilogy for $750 million in cash and shares, a large boot camp provider that partners with continuing education divisions at dozens of universities.


Appendix

  • MAT@USC current rate of tuition for the 2019–2020 academic year is $1,928 per credit.
  • MSW@USC 2019-2020 Unit Charges: $1,928 is the per-unit rate for students enrolled in 1-14 units. $28,628 is the flat rate for students enrolled in 15-18 units.
  • Nursing@Georgetown’s tuition is $2,139.00 per credit hour as of Academic Year 2019-2020.
  • MBA@UNC in 2011 said “tuition will be $89,000 for the two-year program and will include books, texts, student fees and lodging and food costs for four weekend immersions.” For students beginning in the July 2019 term, the tuition for the 2019-2020 academic year (July – June) is $125,589.06.
  • For MPA@UNC students enrolled in the program in academic year 2019–2020, tuition will be $1,209 per credit hour. Students who start the online MPA program in academic year 2019–2020 can expect to pay at least $54,405 for the entire program.